Thursday, April 6, 2017

Apr. 6 17

West Houston, TX, during the early morning.
West Houston, TX, during the early evening.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was sunny, dry, and mostly calm. No rain. I didn't see, hear, or feel any rain drops anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts. The sky was mostly clear during the morning and then clouds started to roll in during the afternoon and cover most of the sky by the evening and during the night. It felt cool during the morning and then warm during the afternoon and a little cool during the evening and night. There was a fire weather statement and an air quality alert issued for the Houston, TX area. I didn't hear about, or see any other watches, warnings, advisories, or weather statements being issued for the Houston, TX area. The low temps were in the 50's with maybe a few 40's and the high temps were in the 70's, for the Houston, TX area.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.


Thoughts: The dry air felt good. I enjoyed it.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 070259
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
959 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017

.UPDATE...
The previous forecast appears to be on track. Only minor tweaks
were made to account for current observations. Expect calm winds and
dry conditions overnight as surface high pressure settles in
overhead. Onshore flow will return tomorrow as the high pressure
slides eastward.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The surface high pressure ridge was centered over
the mid Texas coastal plain at 3:00 PM. Very dry conditions have
settled over the area. The ridge will generally drift eastward
tonight and Friday and expect onshore winds to begin returning
Gulf moisture by midday Friday. Temperatures on Friday will be a
few degrees warmer than what occurred today.

Over the first half of the weekend, an upper level shortwave
ridge will move across Southeast Texas. This will result in above
normal temperatures. The afternoon highs should reach into the
lower 80s on Saturday and possibly into the mid 80s on Sunday.

As the ridge moves eastward, an upper level storm system will move
across the Rockies into the plains. The models are differing on
the strength of the upper level system by Sunday night but the
GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all generally have the center of the
system moving through the northern plains into the Great Lakes
Sunday night and Monday. The GFS and ECMWF both keep the surface
front well to the north of the area Monday through mid week. By
the mid week, both models were showing signs of an upper level
ridge beginning to develop over the Gulf of Mexico with a more
southwesterly flow from the west coast through the Great Lakes.
The GFS keeps the ridge over the Gulf through the end of the week
while the ECMWF tries to break the ridge down. Even with the
differences in the upper level pattern, both do keep rain chances
from Wednesday through the end of the forecast period.

40

MARINE...
Winds will remain out of the northeast through the
remainder of the day around 5 kts over the nearshore waters, and
around 10 kts over the offshore waters. Seas will also remain on
the lower side between 1-2 feet nearshore and 2-3 feet offshore.
Expect onshore flow to return late Thursday night into Friday.
Winds will begin to pick up along the backside of the high
pressure system that begins to scoot east Friday. As winds begin
to increase in speed late in the weekend, caution flags may be
necessary.

Hathaway

FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values currently in the low
twenties, will begin to rise late this afternoon, but winds will
continue to be fairly light around 5 to 10 mph. Winds on Friday
will increase to around 10 to 15 mph as they swing back around to
the southeast. Relative humidity values will also increase into
the lower to mid 30s on Friday.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      78  50  78  57  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              80  51  78  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            75  63  76  66  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...45


Air Quality Alert

TXZ213-237-238-080500-

AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
136 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...OZONE ACTION DAY FOR FRIDAY...

THE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ)...HAS ISSUED AN
OZONE ACTION DAY FOR THE HOUSTON...GALVESTON...AND BRAZORIA AREAS FOR
FRIDAY APRIL 7TH.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING
HIGH LEVELS OF OZONE POLLUTION IN THE HOUSTON...GALVESTON AND
SURROUNDING AREAS ON FRIDAY. YOU CAN HELP PREVENT OZONE POLLUTION BY
SHARING A RIDE...WALKING...RIDING A BICYCLE...TAKING YOUR LUNCH TO
WORK...AVOIDING DRIVE THROUGH LANES...CONSERVING ENERGY AND KEEPING YOUR
VEHICLE PROPERLY TUNED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON OZONE:

OZONE: THE FACTS (WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/AIRQUALITY/MONOPS/OZONEFACTS.HTML)
EPA AIR NOW:
(WWW.AIRNOW.GOV/INDEX.CFM?ACTION=AIRNOW.LOCAL_CITY&CITYID=236)
TAKE CARE OF TEXAS: (WWW.TAKECAREOFTEXAS.ORG/AIR/AIRQUALITY)

$$

Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Apr. 5 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
West Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
Central Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
Central Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Southwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was a little cool, sunny, and dry. No rain. I didn't hear, see, or feel any rain drops anywhere in, or near Houston, TX, during anytime of the day. The sky stayed clear with maybe a few clouds. It felt cool, almost cold, during the morning. A little cool during the afternoon, evening, and night. A wind advisory and fire weather watch was issued. No other watches, warnings, advisories, or weather statements were issued for the Houston, TX area. The low temps were in the 50's with maybe a few 40's, I think, and the high temps were in the 70's, for the Houston, TX area. 


Locations: Northwest, west, central, and southwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: It felt pretty cool during the morning, but turned out to be a pleasant day.



Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
420 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-061200-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
420 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Gusty conditions in the wake of a cold front have prompted the
issuance of wind advisories for counties on the Gulf Coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

$$


Air Quality Alert

TXZ213-237-238-070000-

AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
120 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017

 ...OZONE ACTION DAY FOR THURSDAY APRIL 6, 2017...

THE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ)...HAS ISSUED AN
OZONE ACTION DAY FOR THE HOUSTON...GALVESTON...AND BRAZORIA AREAS FOR
APRIL 6 2017.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING
HIGH LEVELS OF OZONE POLLUTION IN THE HOUSTON...GALVESTON AND
SURROUNDING AREAS ON THURSDAY. YOU CAN HELP PREVENT OZONE POLLUTION BY
SHARING A RIDE...WALKING...RIDING A BICYCLE...TAKING YOUR LUNCH TO
WORK...AVOIDING DRIVE THROUGH LANES...CONSERVING ENERGY AND KEEPING YOUR
VEHICLE PROPERLY TUNED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON OZONE:

OZONE: THE FACTS (WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/AIRQUALITY/MONOPS/OZONEFACTS.HTML)
EPA AIR NOW:
(WWW.AIRNOW.GOV/INDEX.CFM?ACTION=AIRNOW.LOCAL_CITY&CITYID=236)
TAKE CARE OF TEXAS: (WWW.TAKECAREOFTEXAS.ORG/AIR/AIRQUALITY)

$$

Tuesday, April 4, 2017

Apr. 4 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.


Summary: The day was warm, sunny, and mostly clear. There were some clouds during the day and then the sky became mostly cloudy during the night. No rain. I didn't hear, feel, or see any drops anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. There were no watches, warnings, advisories, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of, during anytime of the day. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts. The low temps were in the 60's and maybe a few 50's and the high temps were in the mid to upper 80's, for the Houston, TX area.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Another warm and sunny day. I am not sure if Houston, TX had any record highs. Maybe some showers tomorrow!


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 050238
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
938 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

.UPDATE...
Only minor tweaks were made to the previous forecast. Still
expecting a front to push through overnight tonight with a few
showers possibly popping up along it. Some patchy fog may be
possible just ahead of the front as well, particularly over the
southwest zones where dewpoint depressions are smaller. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A fine day out there albeit on the warm side. Current temperatures
in the average middle 80s are threatening some pretty old records
around the city...may tie one or two within the next hour. A cold
front pushing into west central Texas will come across the region
during the overnight early Wednesday morning hours. Not much fanfare
associated with this front`s passage...slight chances for low QPF
showers along or just ahead of the boundary as it nears the coastline
during the pre-dawn hours. The bulk of the cool and drier Canadian
air filtering in over southeastern Texas will best be felt early
Thursday once the winds die out. A strong northwesterly wind day
tomorrow per the tight post-frontal offshore pressure gradient
/cold-dry air advection. A short-fused Wind Advisory may be needed
from mid morning through mid afternoon across the western corridor
and coastal counties as sustained winds reach 20 to 25 mph. Humidities
will fall into the 30s but...with the driest air lagging behind
by a half a day...will have tomorrow`s high winds out of phase with
Thursday`s low humidities in the 20s (see Fire Weather below).
This cool and dry air mass...85H temps falling to between 5 to 10
C...will regulate daily late week warmth to the 70s. This cooling
will best be felt overnight as Thursday and Friday`s sunrise
temperatures fall into the interior middle to upper 40s (Thursday)
/upper 40s to lower 50s (Friday).

The upper ridge axis passes off to the east...with the surface
high positioning itself over the southeastern states...going into
the weekend. Onshore winds return Friday and...with a tightening
onshore pressure gradient per lowering Rocky Mountain lee pressures
..strengthen to moderate magnitudes through the weekend. Early
week rain chances will be on the rise as the extended models want
to push a cold front into west central Texas ahead of shallow upper
troughing. The solution NWP consensus is to hang this boundary up
somewhere over central or eastern Texas Monday and Tuesday. Ample
lower level convergence within a 1.5 to 1.6 inch pwat air mass...with
cooling mid-levels creating an increasingly unstable environment
through Tuesday afternoon...will maintain at least moderate inland POPS
for Monday showers transitioning to showers with isolated storms
by Tuesday. 31

MARINE...
A cold front over North Texas will move toward SE TX tonight and
cross the coastal waters early Wednesday morning. A strong pressure
and thermal gradient will contribute to a strong offshore flow
Wednesday with winds beginning to decrease early Thursday morning as
high pressure settles over the state. A Small Craft Advisory will be
in effect early Wednesday through Wednesday evening for sustained
offshore winds near 25 knots. Wind gusts will approach Gale force at
times and Seas will quickly build to 7 to 9 feet offshore. The sfc
high moves east on Thursday night and a weak onshore flow should
return on Friday. Onshore winds will strengthen over the weekend as
low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies and deepens as it
moves to the east. Onshore winds will prevail through the first half
of next week. 43


FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will remain out of the south tonight and into the early
morning hours, before veering to the northwest by early Wednesday
morning. Still anticipating elevated fire weather conditions
Wednesday, with wind speeds approaching 15 to 25 mph and relative
humidities falling into the mid 30s by Wednesday afternoon.
Especially concerned along the coastal counties where the fine fuels
are still fairly dry, as this region did not receive as much rain
over the last week. Forecast soundings show dry air aloft, have some
concerns that this dry air may mix to the surface creating RH values
lower than forecast. Looking ahead to Thursday, relative humidities
will remain low but wind speeds will be considerably lighter
reducing the risk for fire weather. Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      88  53  73  45  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              89  60  76  49  77 /   0  20   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            81  67  76  58  74 /   0  20  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...11

Monday, April 3, 2017

Apr. 3 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was sunny, dry, and warm. No rain. I didn't see, feel, or hear about any rain drops falling anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. The day started off cool, but then became very warm, almost hot, during the afternoon. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts. There were no watches, warnings, advisories, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day, that I know of. The low temps were in the low 60's with maybe a few 50's and the high temps were in the low to mid 80's, for the Houston, TX area. The sky looked clear during the early and maybe mid-morning, evening, and maybe night. There were a few fair clouds, during the late morning and afternoon.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.


Thoughts: A pretty pleasant day. Some cool weather on the way. No too happy about it, but at least it will feel nice when I am riding my bike, or working.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 040143
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
843 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Not planning on any changes with the update this evening. Slightly
higher dewpoints over the SW portions of the CWA do lend some cre-
dence to the idea of patchy fog there overnight...whereas the rest
of the area did see quite a bit of mixing. Current forecast trends
for the short-term look to be on track. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017/

A beautiful day across the Lone Star as surface high pressure
nudges up into the western Gulf...subsidence rules with clear
skies affording many communities maximum temperatures in the lower
to middle 80s. Low relative humidities in the interior middle 20s
to upper 30s...depending on the ambient temperatures as many dew
points have mixed out into the lower to middle 50s (inland) to
lower 60s along the coast. After a cool starry evening of areawide
interior minimum Ts in the lower 60s...mid to upper 60s close to
coast...Tuesday will warm to near record values (please see
Climate section below). Houston (IAH)`s maximum temperature record
tomorrow is 120 years old! The only caveat tomorrow will be the
possible development of patchy 4 to 6 mile visibility-restricting
patchy fog outside the city...primarily centered over the more
western to southwestern rural counties. Confidence is low of any
significant fog development per a near 6 to 8 knot southerly
breeze and the possible existence of a high cloud deck.

A cold frontal passage Wednesday morning will open the gates for
a colder and drier continental-in-origin air mass to spread
across the region from mid week on through Thursday...a slow
modification of the air mass Friday as weakened offshore winds
swing back around to onshore through the day. Slight early
Wednesday rain chances (showers) just ahead or along the front
over more southern counties. The coldest and driest air will come
across late Wednesday into Thursday...anticipating that mid-level
air will fall from the mid to upper teens into the single digits
by midnight Thursday/pwats will plummet into the 0.3 to 0.4 inch
realm Thursday. The fire weather scenario is highlighted below.
This frontal passage will chill mornings into the 40s and regulate
afternoon warmth into very comfortable (near normal) middle to
upper 70s in closing out the week. Late week large high pressure
/upper ridging dominates the weather pattern with no rain forecast
through Saturday. Rain chances increase Sunday with the passage
of a far northern Plains upper trough. The associated surface cold
front may make it into eastern Texas by Monday but will most likely
hang up somewhere north. Saturation under a mid-level warm nose
and a vicinity front may produce daytime scattered shower activity
early next week. 31

Climate...
Record maximum temperature records for Tuesday (year):

College Station: 90 F (1918)

Houston (IAH): 88 F (1897)

Houston (Hobby): 87 F (1940)

Galveston: 82 F (2011)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      60  86  54  73  48 /   0   0  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)              63  87  60  75  50 /   0   0  20   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            69  80  67  75  61 /   0   0  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Sunday, April 2, 2017

Apr. 2 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the late morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Spring, TX, during the early afternoon.
Katy, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Katy, TX, during the late afternoon.
Katy, TX, during the early evening.
West Houston, TX, during the early evening.
West Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was mostly cloudy, wet, and a little cool. Bands of moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms passed over most of the Houston, TX area. Most of the rain was on the west side of Houston, TX. There were tornado watches and severe thunderstorm warnings issued for the Houston, TX area. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts, The low temps were in the 60's and the high temps were in the 70's, for the Houston, TX area. There was some storm damage reported in and around the Houston, TX area.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX, Spring, TX, and Katy, TX.


Thoughts: Not much severe weather, but did get to see some heavy rain in Spring, TX. I will try to upload the videos that I took of the heavy rain in Spring, TX. I was having trouble uploading the videos to this blog.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 030241
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
941 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

.DISCUSSION...
As the convection continues to move off to the ENE across LA and
points beyond, the cold front is starting to make its way slowly
into SE TX this evening. Looking very N-S aligned so far, we are
still expecting this boundary to move through the CWA overnight.
Grids appear to have things covered, so no major changes we made
with the update. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017/

Today`s event is coming to a close...with the only action left on
the radar that of thunderstorms racing up ahead of an early
outflow boundary that propagated from a ragged line of storms just
northwest of the city. Although not a complete bust as there have
been reports of trees downed and flooded roadways across the
northern CWA (4 to 5 inches of storm total precipitation from
central Grimes County northeast into Houston County)...the bulk of
the population (i.e., Houston metro) did not experience any
severe thunderstorm activity. With such a ripe downstream
environment conducive for the formation of tornadic cells that are
now impacting SHV and LCH`s area...the greater Houston area did
dodge a bullet. The main `why`s` to this may be pinned on poor
upper air/jet dynamics...the upper low`s slow movement into the
Big Bend region this afternoon really placed the best diffulence
west of us. The gust front generated by the QLCS over the western
CWA early this afternoon blew through the city and virtually
outraced the upstream cells...shutting the door on future
development as rich and warm inflow was cut off by lower level
cool moist downdraft air. Activity flaring up over Jackson County
may need to be monitored but all high rez solutions as not doing
anything with its future evolution.

The Pacific front is entering central Texas this hour and should
be veering winds west through the late evening into the early
Monday morning hours. Spectral models (for as much as they can be
trusted) maintain far eastern forecast area early evening QPF just
ahead of the front. Prefer to go with the guidance that suggests
all that will occur with the fropa will be clearing skies and
lowering temperatures/dew points. Today was pretty much it
concerning precipitation so hopefully you picked some up rain today
without the added storm wind feature. Dry slotting behind the
exiting upper low into the Midwestern CONUS tomorrow morning will
clear skies and allow temperatures to fall into the upper 50s to
near 60 F. A mostly sunny Monday as afternoon temperatures warm
into the middle 80s under a southwest breeze...relatively lower
dew points in the 50s will keep RHs comfortable. Tuesday will be a
partially cloudy day as the region falls between the Bermuda high
and lowering Rocky lee pressures. A brisk south breeze Tuesday
with near 60 F minimum temperatures...warming into the middle to
possible upper 80s by the early afternoon. There may some maximum
temperature records that will be threatened Tuesday afternoon as
many Tmax records are in the middle to upper 80s. An upper trough
moving out of the Rockies will push a surface cold front through
eastern TX overnight Wednesday morning. Primarily a dry fropa with
slight chances for pre-dawn Wednesday showers ahead or along the
boundary across our southern tier counties. Uneventful weather
through late week under mostly clear skies...post-frontal air mass
will regulate warmth to the middle to upper 70 maxTs / upper 40
to lower 50 minTs. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      57  82  59  87  55 /  10   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)              61  84  62  87  60 /  40   0   0   0  20
Galveston (GLS)            66  77  70  82  66 /  40   0   0   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Monday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$


Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
426 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-030930-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
426 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a moderate risk of severe weather mainly east and
northeast of a College Station to Cleveland line. To the south and
west of that line there is an enhanced risk for severe weather.
All modes of severe weather will be possible - tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds. There is also the potential for heavy
rainfall and flash flooding. A flash flood watch is in effect
today for areas north of a Brenham to Livingston line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

$$

Apr. 1 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was warm, sunny, and mostly cloudy. Maybe some rain. I think I felt a few drops. I also saw a few small light showers on the TWC, Houston, TX radar. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts and some really strong 20 to maybe 25 mph gusts. There were no watches, warnings, advisories, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day, that I know of. The low temps were in the 60's and the high temps were in the 70's and 80's, for the Houston, TX area.


Location: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: I'm getting ready for another stormy day tomorrow. 



Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 020126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
826 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017


.AVIATION...
Long and messy TAFs. Updated just a few minutes ago to add VCSH
across the board given the rapid development of SHRA across the
area. One thunderstorm has already formed near PSX as 0035z.
Guidance appears to be underforecasting the ongoing precipitation
over SETX at least in the short term. As LLJ strengthens will
probably see more hit or miss showers develop and race NNW. Winds
have backed to the east and southeast as expected (which has
helped to feed moisture westward into the Hill country and limit
it`s northward advance through SETX) and will continue throughout
the night with CIGS lowering and widespread MVFR decks to
prevail. Showers and thunderstorms should pickup in coverage
dramatically Sunday morning after 12z with impacts to the Metro
area terminals 15-23z. Storms will be moving faster as the day
wears on and may begin at 20 knots and by noon storms maybe moving
at 35+ knots. At some point expect a more solid line to take
shape in close proximity to the warm front near CLL-UTS- DKR with
longer duration impacts for those areas. Dry slotting works into
the area late afternoon but may see a few storms develop along the
Pacific cold front as it marches through the region in the out
period and beyond.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017/

DISCUSSION...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

All of the elements required for active Sunday weather are
forecast to synchronize over southeastern Texas during the daytime
hours. High moisture flux into a developing warm front within a
highly sheared environment all suggest that tomorrow will be a
severe weather day. Other than a quick passing shortwave around
the upper low throwing off the timing of onset...expect the most
intense weather to occur mainly from around sunrise through (at
the latest) early Sunday evening. The focus for the highest
rainfall will be across the northern tier counties...or in the
vicinity of the best low to mid level convergence provided by the
northern-advancing warm frontal boundary. SPC has placed the
region under a (fairly infrequent) Moderate Risk. There is also a
Flash Flood Watch in effect across the far northern zones.

Surface low pressure over the lower Rio Grande Valley will lift
up and over central Texas tomorrow as the upper low over northern
Mexico advances into extreme southwestern Texas. This will aid in
drawing up a lower 70 F (sfc) dew point air mass. The warm front
leading this moisture rich air will provide the needed lower level
convergence for early day showers and isolated storms to fire.
The atmosphere is turning in the lower levels and creating helicity
indices supportive of rotating updrafts leading to tornadic super-
cellular behavior. Winds veer more efficiently in the lower few
km earlier in the day. Thus...the tornado threat from discrete
cells leading a more organized central Texas line of convection
will be highest earlier in the day...especially over the central
and southern counties. As cells move across the warm front...lower
level vorticity could become more enhanced. A strengthened lower
level jet will provide better mid-level exhaust to maintain early
day discrete cellular evolution. Pwat air of greater than 1.5
inches (possibly 1.7-1.8 inch pwats that would be above the 99th
climate percentile) being pumped in at a greater than 60 degree
angle should be ample fuel to maintain interior thunderstorm
activity. In essence...when completing the flash flood decision
tree...you get all high scores in relation to a classic warm air
advection pattern set-up. A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect
from 4 AM through 7 PM Sunday for the far interior northern
counties as well are forecasting the highest rainfall from roughly
north of a Caldwell to Huntsville to Groveton line. Lower wet
bulb heights signal a hail threat with high column winds (shear)
and weak PM inverted V`s lending themselves to a high (storm) wind
threat.

A better stacked lower to upper level low over northeastern Texas late
Sunday night will aid in weakening the system over state late Sunday...
a dry slot moving in from the west scouring out areal precipitation
late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Other than a mid week
(primarily dry) cold frontal passage...this coming work week`s
weather is forecast to be tame. After a wet and overcast Sunday in
the mean middle to upper 70s...60 F minTs with average middle 80
maxTs early in the work week will `cool` into the post frontal
low/mid 50s for mins and mid/upper 70s from mid week through Friday.
31

MARINE...
A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow will persist tonight
as low pressure over West Texas deepens. Will maintain the SCA for
the Gulf waters but not sure that it is needed over the near shore
waters as winds/seas slightly lower. An upper level disturbance will
bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the coastal waters
on Sunday. Mariners should remain alert for rapidly changing conds on the
water and prepare for strong storms Sunday aftn with damaging winds
possible. The low will push NE Sunday night and Monday with a weak offshore
flow developing on Monday. Winds will quickly back to the south
Monday night and remain onshore through early Wednesday. Another
cold front is progged to move across the coastal waters late on
Wednesday morning.  A strong offshore will develop in the wake of
the front on Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday. Weak high
pressure over the central plains will ridge into Texas on Friday
bringing light and variable winds. A light onshore flow will develop
Friday night as the surface high shifts east. The onshore flow will
strengthen next weekend as the high shifts further east and low
pressure over the central plains deepens. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      69  79  58  81  59 /  30  90  40   0   0
Houston (IAH)              71  79  62  83  62 /  40  90  50  10   0
Galveston (GLS)            73  76  67  78  69 /  30  80  60   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch from 4 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday evening
     for the following zones: Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...
     Houston...Madison...Trinity...Walker.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Sunday evening for
     the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
414 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

TXZ178-179-199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-022115-
Austin-Brazoria-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-Galveston-Harris-
Jackson-Liberty-Matagorda-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Waller-
Wharton-
414 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Severe weather and flooding may be possible Sunday from the approach
and passage of an upper level storm system. The severe weather threat
encompasses the whole region for the potential of tornadoes, hail
and damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur and lead
to flash flooding in low lying areas as well as rapid rises on
area rivers, creeks and bayous. There is still some uncertainty on
the timing of these threats but generally think the potential
will begin after midnight Sunday and persist through much of the
day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will need to have a heightened awareness on Sunday.

$$