Sunday, November 8, 2020

Nov. 7 20

 Summary: The sky looked to be mostly clear with the occasional flat, white alto stratus cloud. It felt a little cool, during the early and mid-morning, late evening, and night. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did not feel, or see any rain, where I was, during anytime of the day. The wind speeds were calm with light gusts.

Thoughts: I am enjoying the sunshine but I am missing the rain.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 080514
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1114 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2020

.AVIATION...

Starting to see some low cloud development and reduced visibilities,
and expect this trend to continue overnight through early tomorrow
morning with IFR/LIFR conditions possible. Everything should gradually
lift and burn off beginning after sunrise with VFR conditions expected
for the rest of the day. Should see a similar pattern again Sunday night
and Monday.  42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2020/

SHORT TERM [Through Sunday Night]...
Mostly clear skies, slightly higher dewpoints and light winds
should allow for some areas of late night & early morning low
clouds/fog to develop tonight and again Sunday night. Otherwise,
expect a general repeat of today`s wx for Sunday. Some of the HREF
members try to sneak in a few spotty shra during the day, but
meager moisture availability and some narrow mid level ridging
overhead should keep this quite isolated. 47

LONG TERM [Monday Through Sunday]...
Not many changes necessary to the extended forecast at this point.
Still looking at a rather mild/warm week for mid November, with
increasing clouds and moisture ahead of a pair of shortwave troughs.
While TS Eta will linger over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week,
a broad mid/upper level trough will become established over the
western states.  Leading shortwave trough will eject early in the
week with an associated surface cold front moving into eastern TX
Tuesday, before stalling along or just off the upper TX coast.  We
should see increasing clouds and slight chances of showers/tstms
Tuesday, before clearing and dry conditions settle in through
Friday.  Models are a bit inconsistent with a strong system/front
late Friday into Saturday, with Euro being more bullish with a
stronger system and great chances of tstms.  The GFS on the other
hand takes a weaker system ejecting farther north with little impact
on sern TX.  Given this system is 6-7 days out, have stayed somewhat
in the middle of the guidance although slightly favored the Euro.

Evans

MARINE...
Swell has dropped to 5 ft at buoy 42019 so will go ahead and bring
the SCEC flags down. That said, we`ll probably see a continued 5
ft seas in the offshore waters into early next week until we get
out of the preferred swell window around Eta. Otherwise, east and
eventually southeast winds prevail into early next week. A weak
front will approach the coast late Tuesday. The combination of the
front along with the far outer circulation around Eta in the
eastern Gulf will lead to a period of northeast winds toward
midweek. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      60  80  65  82  66 /   0   0   0  20  10
Houston (IAH)              63  80  66  82  66 /   0   0   0  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            69  78  70  77  70 /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Thursday, November 5, 2020

Nov. 5 20

 Summary: Flat, low white and grey stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky through until sometime during the afternoon. The sky looked to be mostly clear, or maybe clear during the evening and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with light gusts. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops, where I was, during anytime of the day. It felt a little cool, during the early and mid-morning. It felt warm during the late morning, afternoon, evening, and night. 

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 052353
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
553 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Patchy fog setting up for most terminals tonight and settling in
through the morning. For now, only looking MVFR conditions for now
but IFR could happen at the terminals. Low moisture capping and just
the right amount of wind speed could start the mixing process a bit
sooner and set the fog up thicker. Later amendments could be needed
as we see how it sets up initially.  35
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 318 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2020/...


.SHORT TERM [through Friday Night]...

A warm and humid Gulf airmass has resulted in afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon.
Dewpoints have slightly increased; but still remain comfortable
with values in the 50s and lower 60s. Dry conditions will continue
to dominate throughout the short term period. The shortwave
trough aloft will stall over the region tonight and linger into
the weekend. Forcing remains weak and moisture is limited with
PWATS still remaining below an inch. Therefore, precipitation is
not expected. The exception will be over the Gulf waters where a
surge of low-level moisture moves in thanks to persistent easterly
flow. This will allow for isolated showers offshore Friday night
into the weekend.

The main concern tonight will be fog development/low clouds,
leading to low visibilities at times. Hi-Res models and SREF
probabilities highlight areas of low visibility west of I-45,
although confidence in extent and coverage is still moderate. Will
continue to monitor the potential for an advisory this
evening/overnight.

South to southeast winds will transition to the northeast by
Friday (inland), bringing slightly cooler temperatures compared to
today`s highs. Highs will mainly range in the upper 70s.


.LONG TERM [Saturday through Thursday]...

An upper level low cut off from the main flow will meander over TX
through the weekend before getting sheared out as it moves to the
NE. Upper level ridging will then amplify over East Texas and expand
across the western Gulf as another long wave trough moves toward the
inter-mountain west. PW values over the weekend look very dry and
barely reach 1.10 inches. Capping is noted in the the 850-700 mb
layer and 850 temperatures slowly warm through the weekend with MaxT
values slowly warming into the lower 80`s by Sunday. Overnight low
temperatures will also warm quite a bit with more cloud cover to
insulate and a bit of mixing as winds don`t fully decouple.

Next week looks unseasonably warm with 850 mb temps between 14.5 and
17.0 C. The long wave trough over the west moves east quickly and
surface low pressure associated with the upper level feature will
race NE and drag a cold front into the state. Pressure rises
associated with the front look weak and current thinking is that the
front will probably stall across SE TX. That said, there could still
be a wind shift to the NE as whatever is left of Eta could be moving
toward the central Gulf and the wind field associated with this
feature should allow for winds to become NE and drier air on the
west side of the feature should allow skies to clear late Tuesday
into Wednesday. Despite strong capping in the 850-700 mb layer and a
lot of dry air above 700 mb, there is a small saturated layer in the
930-850 mb layer and there could be a few streamer showers
occasionally squeezed out Sunday night through early Tuesday. Most
locations will likely stay dry.

Pressures begin to fall again as low pressure develops over the TX
panhandle on Thursday as a short wave trough develops over the
western US and moves toward the Southern Rockies. The short wave
trough will deepen as it crosses TX next Fri/Sat and it will foster
the development of a sfc low near the coast and this feature will
bring a chance of rain and a wind shift for the first half of next
weekend.


.MARINE...
While the region continues to be dominated by a surface high over
the northeastern CONUS, will continue to monitor for the possible
arrival of Tropical Cyclone Eta across the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico late this weekend into early next week as increased swells
may be possible over our offshore waters. With that said, light
easterly winds this afternoon will shift to the northeast and
slightly increase overnight into Friday. Building seas from 5 to 6
ft offshore and gusts around 15 to 25 knots will be possible Friday
afternoon into the early next week. Isolated to scattered showers
are also expected far offshore. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
conditions or Small Craft Advisories will be possible Friday into
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  57  78  53  79  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          55  78  58  79  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        65  75  65  75  68 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...43
AVIATION...35
MARINE...05

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Nov. 4 20

 Summary: The sky looked to be mostly clear with small white stratus, or maybe cirrus clouds, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds were calm with some moderate gusts. It felt cool during the early and mid-morning. It started to feel warm, during the late morning. It felt warm during the afternoon. It felt a little cool, during the evening and night. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops, where I was, during anytime of the day.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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109
FXUS64 KHGX 042337
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions throughout the forecast period. Some patchy fog in
the morning for the norther TAF sites but the more dense areas
should stay to the north of the flying areas. Any MVFR conditions
will quickly return to VFR in the morning between 14&15z. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 244 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [through Thursday Night]...

Ridging aloft continues to shift east, resulting in slightly
warmer conditions but still pleasant. Scattered mid to high clouds
are beginning to creep in from western Texas in response to an
approaching weak upper level trough. This upper low will continue
to move eastward into our region tonight, lingering into the
weekend. Little to no precipitation is expected as forcing is weak
and moisture remains limited (PWATs around 1 inch or less through
the end of the week). Thus, increasing cloud cover will be the
main impact. With persistent southeast flow and mostly cloudy
skies, a mild night is expected with overnight lows from the mid
50s to upper 60s.

A gradual clearing is expected later on Thursday with light east
to southeast winds. With a warmer and slightly humid airmass in
place, highs will mainly range from the mid to upper 70s. 05


.LONG TERM [Friday through Wednesday]...

A sharp short wave trough over the eastern plains will dig into
TX late Thursday night and become cut-off from the main flow with
an upper level low developing over SE TX. The best moisture will
remain on the east side of this feature and PW values are progged
to remain below an inch through Saturday. The upper low becomes
elongated from NW-SE into the western Gulf on Saturday and the
associated upper level weakness will phase into the circulation
associated with Eta. Weak upper level ridging will develop in
response to the departing trough but low level moisture will
stream into the areas beneath a building cap as onshore winds
strengthen. PW values increase to around 1.60 inches by Sunday and
fcst soundings show a saturated layer between 930-770 mb with a
fairly strong cap at 700 mb. Could squeeze out some showers
beneath the cap but coverage should be sparse. A general warming
trend will be underway with overnight lows warming from the mid
50`s on Saturday to the mid 60`s on Sunday. MaxT values will be in
the mid/upper 70s on Saturday and around 80 on Sunday.

The capping inversion remains in place Monday and Tuesday and
moisture levels remain around 1.55 inches. Again, there could be
some showers on Monday but feel most areas will likely remain dry.
The upper level ridge over Texas dampens as a short wave trough
moves across the Central Plains. The flow aloft will become more
SW with a series of very weak upper level disturbances embedded in
the flow moving across East Texas. At the surface, a cold front
will move across SE TX late in the afternoon or Tuesday night with
a band of showers along the fropa. MaxT values could remain in
the lower/mid 80`s next Mon/Tue as 850 temps remain very warm with
clearing and cooler conditions expected behind next weeks front.
43


.MARINE...

Surface high pressure remains strong across the eastern CONUS
while a surface low moves over northwestern TX. This pattern will
continue to bring light east to southeast winds into the weekend.
Persistent onshore flow will result in building seas from 5-6 ft
at times Thursday night into early next week. Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution conditions for seas will be possible during this
time-frame. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible this weekend into next week with increasing moisture
and the arrival of a cold front on Tuesday. Light winds and seas
up to 3 ft are expected behind the front. 05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  56  78  56  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          59  78  55  78  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        68  74  64  76  65 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...43
AVIATION...35
MARINE...05

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Nov. 3 20

 Summary: White, small, and thin alto stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm some occasional moderate gusts. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in the Houston, TX area during anytime of the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops where I was in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. It felt very cool, during the early and mid-morning. It felt cool, during the late morning. It felt started to feel warm, during the early afternoon. It felt warm, during the mid and late afternoon and early evening. It felt a little cool, during the late evening. It felt cool during the early night.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 032343
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
543 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

A few high cirrus clouds showing up across the area this evening,
with conditions remaining clear and within VFR thresholds through
the duration of the TAF period. Winds will become light and
variable overnight, veering slightly to the southeast by tomorrow
afternoon but remaining around 5 to 10 knots. No cig/visibility
concerns are anticipated.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2020/

SHORT TERM [through Wednesday Night]...

It`s been another pleasant day across southeast TX today as ridging
aloft moves overhead. Afternoon temperatures have climbed into the
mid 70s, but a drier airmass remains in place with dewpoint values
in the 30 to 55 degree range. A quiet night is on tap with overnight
lows from the 40s well inland to near 60s along the coast.

The main weather story on Wednesday will be warmer temperatures.
Winds turn more southeasterly as the surface high migrates east of
the region, bringing warmer and slightly humid conditions. 850 hPa
temperatures climb into the 14 to 16 degree Celsius range;
therefore, some locations could see temperatures in the upper 70s
to near 80.

LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...

A mid/upper level short wave trough will replace the upper ridge
that has been over SE Texas on Wednesday night and Thursday. This
trough evolves into a closed mid/upper low just east of the area or
in the NW Gulf by Saturday. This feature will put the breaks on the
max temp warmup and basically hold them steady at the end of the
week and early in the weekend, and will also produce some cloud
cover over the area. Any precip with this upper low should remain
east of the area. The surface high which is now centered east of the
area will move further east to the mid-Atlantic region by Friday.
This will produce a prolonged period of E/SE winds over the area.
This pattern will produce above normal max temperatures with minimum
temps continuing to warm through Tuesday morning.

Early next week, a large and deep mid/upper level low centered over
the four corners region will begin to advect eastward into the
plains. The GFS is slightly more progressive than the ECMWF with
this upper trough/low and its associated cold front. Expect the cold
front to move into SE Texas on Tuesday and push off the coast
Tuesday night or early Wednesday. It looks like there will be enough
destabilization for isolated showers on Monday across western
portions of the area, and then scattered showers and thunderstorms
on Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead of and near the cold front. 33


MARINE...

With a surface high pressure east of the area, light east to
southeast winds are expected through the weekend. While winds
remain light to moderate, seas could range up to 5-6 ft at times by
the end of the week into early next week thanks to a persistent east
to southeast flow. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions
for seas will be possible late this week into the weekend. 05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      46  77  54  78  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              50  77  58  78  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            64  75  68  75  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Monday, November 2, 2020

Nov. 2 2020

 Summary: Small, white alto stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, during the morning and early and mid-afternoon. The sky looked to have become mostly clear with only a few white alto stratus clouds, sometime during the late afternoon, or maybe early evening. The sky looked to be mostly clear with only a few white alto stratus clouds, during the evening and night. The wind speeds were light with moderate gusts. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in the Houston, TX area, during any time of the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops. It felt very cool, during the early and mid-morning. It felt cool, during the late morning. It felt a little cool, almost warm, during the afternoon. It felt cool, during the early evening and very cool during the late evening. It started to feel cold, during the early night. It felt cold, during the late night.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 022353
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
553 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Clear skies and light,
variable winds expected to develop tonight. Light south to
southeasterly winds are expected to develop tomorrow with some
high clouds moving into the area.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 247 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2020/...

.SHORT TERM (Through Tuesday)...
Surface high pressure over the mid south and upper level ridging
over South Texas will bring clear skies to SE TX tonight and
again on Tuesday. If you have not voted, weather will not be a
detriment to voting in person on Tuesday. The air mass over the
region is very dry so the diurnal range in temperatures will be
very large. And, with dry air in place, coupled with clear skies
and light winds, MinT values tonight will plunge into the middle
and upper 40`s most areas. 850 temps warm a bit on Tuesday and
MaxT values should warm into the mid/upper 70`s. Dew points will
remain low so another day with low humidity is expected.  43


.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Monday]...

A mid/upper level ridge of high pressure will continue over the area
through Wednesday. A mid level short wave trough will break down the
ridge Wednesday night and Thursday and will produce more cloud cover
over the area. The surface high which has been centered over the
area will gradually shift east and we will see onshore flow
beginning on Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the
forecast period. This pattern will produce above normal max
temperatures and a warming trend with minimum temps through the
period. By Sunday and into early next week, minimum temperatures
will be well above normal and in the 60s areawide. With the warm and
moist airmass in place by late in the weekend, we could also see
some showers develop over portions of the area.

Early next week, a large and deep mid/upper level low centered over
the four corners region will begin to advect eastward into the
plains. The GFS is slightly more progressive than the ECMWF with
this upper trough/low, but both support a cold front beginning to
push across north Texas just after the forecast period. 33


.MARINE...
High pressure over Arkansas will move east through mid week and
winds will veer to the E-SE by tomorrow. The gradient is relaxing
but cooler air over the warmer waters should keep winds near SCEC
criteria offshore. Will issue a SCEC tonight as seas remain
between 5-6 feet through 09z despite a slight decrease in wind
speeds. A light onshore flow will prevail Wednesday into early
Thursday. The pressure gradient will tighten again toward the end
of the week as low pressure over the NW Carribean moves north and
interacts with high pressure over the mid Atlantic. The persistent
east wind will bring swells into the coastal waters by Friday
with slightly elevated water levels for next weekend. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  46  76  48  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          47  75  51  78  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        60  71  64  75  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 3 AM CST Tuesday for
     the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Sunday, November 1, 2020

Nov. 1 20

 Summary: The sky looked to be clear with alto stratus clouds scattered across at times, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds were light with moderate gusts, I think. It felt cool in the early and mid-morning, evening, and night. It felt cool, almost warm, during the late morning. It felt warm, during the afternoon. I did not hear about or see any rain anywhere in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. A few drops fell on my cars windshield as I was on the 290 entrance ramp off of highway 6. Not sure if they were rain drops or condensation from somewhere, but there were no condensation looking clouds so I am thinking maybe from a moist atmosphere or off of a building structure of some kind.

Thoughts: Not much weather going on lately. Maybe some active weather on Saturday and Sunday!

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 012319
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
519 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR throughout. Any change would be subtle relaxing of winds and a
small shift from northerly to northeasterly. Most changes are not
significant enough to require much elaboration in the TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 306 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Tomorrow night]...

The cool front is still making its way through the area bring in some
cooler and drier weather. Not going to see a lot of the effects
other than some cooler lows tonight in the mid to upper 40s and
highs tomorrow around 70. Humidity will decrease as will overall
getting to around 35-30% in the day making it quite pleasant with a
northeasterly breeze. Overall, quite weather as the high pressure
ridges over SETX and settling in. 35


.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Sunday Night]...

Benign weather conditions continue throughout the week with a
persistent high pressure system dominating the Plains. Warm south to
southeast air advection will develop behind the surface high
pressure late Tuesday through Friday. This will result in
temperatures slightly warmer than previous days and a few degrees
warmer than average for this time of year. Highs will mainly range
from the mid 70s to near 80. A slight and gradual increase in
surface dewpoints/relative humidity is also expected into the
weekend.

Upper level pattern changes toward the end of the week as a longwave
trough develops over the Pacific Northwest and an upper-level low
moves over the Gulf. Global models show a potential for active
weather by Saturday and Sunday as low-level Gulf moisture increases
(PWATS around 1.5 inches) and the upper-low pressure system moves
through. There is still uncertainty given discrepancies between
models; thus, have only kept slight chances for rain next Saturday
and Sunday. 05


.MARINE...

Moderate to strong northeast winds persist this afternoon in the
wake of a departing surface cold front. Gusty winds from 20 to 30
knots are expected to continue this evening through Monday morning
before northerly flow mixes out and a surface high pressure moves
overhead. Building seas are also expected with values up to 7-8 feet
offhsore. Given that, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through 12 PM CST Monday. Northeast winds will gradually veer to the
east-southeast by Tuesday as the aforementioned high moves east of
our region. Seas could increase offshore around 3 to 6 ft towards
the end of the week thanks to tighter pressure gradients and
increasing swells associated with Tropical Cyclone Eta over the
western Caribbean. 05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  42  70  43  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          48  70  46  74  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        58  69  60  72  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
     following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...05