Friday, August 28, 2020

Aug. 28 20

 It was mostly cloudy and hot up through the late afternoon. Some areas near downtown Houston were experiencing showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two during the early afternoon around 1 to 2 that I could see from the rain drafts while I was driving to get Whataburger for lunch in the heights area. Light to Moderately heavy to heavy showers rolled into the heights area where I work sometime during the late afternoon or early evening. The rain lasted for about 30 ish minutes and was gone by the time that I left my job around 6:10 PM. 

Thick dark blue rain looking clouds followed me on my way to Sugar Land to pick up a foster cat and take to a Petsmart in Katy. The thick storm looking clouds started to rumble with thunder and lightning with a heavy wind with gusts up to around possibly 20 mph + when I pulled into the Petsmart in Katy around 7:30 PM. I could hear the heavy rain while I was in the Petsmart around 8:10 PM. Light rain with lots of lightning and thunder followed me on my way home in northwest Houston, TX from the Petsmart in Katy, TX around 8:30 PM. The light rain and thunder and lightning looked to have stopped around 10 PM. My house looked to have not received more than a few sprinkles. 

Summary: I enjoyed seeing the rain and really enjoy summertime showers and thunderstorms. Hoping to see more heavy showers and thunderstorms before summer is over.

Sorry no pictures.....

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 282354
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
654 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Some evening showers and thunderstorms scattered across the inland
flying areas are dissipating out now. By 01-02z, thunderstorms
activity may transition to some showers for a bit, but VFR
conditions will return across the TAF sites by 02z. Tonight may
bring in some lower ceilings but mostly looking borderline and
drier. Tomorrow will be VFR through the day with some chances of
afternoon convection but much lower chances than today. 35

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tomorrow]...

A trough of low pressure persists across SE TX and this feature
coupled with high PW air has allowed for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. The GFS and HRRR continue
to be aggressive with shra/tsra this afternoon into the evening
while other models are more benign. The ingredients are in place so
will maintain chance PoPs through 01z and keep slt chance going over
the W-NW zones through 03z. Activity should begin to wane once
heating ends after sunset. Speaking of heat, 850 mb temps were very
warm and cloud cover/winds last night blunted any cooling and the
warm start has allowed temperature to reach the upper 90s by 1 PM.
Dew points are not mixing out and the heat/humidity combo is
producing oppressive and dangerous heat index values. Galveston
reached a heat index value of 110 degrees by 10 AM and 114 degrees
at 2 PM. Sugar Land reached a HI of 112 degrees by 2 PM and Angleton
reached 110. Will maintain the Heat Advisory through 10 PM but the
area should fall below criteria by around 800 PM.

There should be some clearing by mid evening but more clouds will
develop prior to sunrise and this coupled with winds not fully
decoupling will yield another night of very warm temperatures. It
will probably only cool into the upper 70`s inland and lower/mid 80s
toward the coast.

On Saturday, another warm start to the day and very warm
temperatures aloft will translate to another day with oppressive
heat. Have issued a Heat Advisory for Saturday as conditions look
rather similar to today with dew points struggling to mix out
coupled with warm daytime temperatures. Max Heat Index values will
again exceed 108 degrees by late morning at the coast and by early
afternoon further inland. Max Heat Index will range from 105 to 113
degrees. PW values drop considerably but briefly peak near 2.00
inches on Saturday afternoon. Could get a few showers and storms
late but most of the area will probably remain dry. 43


.LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night Through Friday]...

The forecast trend through the remainder of the weekend and into
the beginning of next week will continue to be characterized by
hot and humid conditions with potentially dangerous heat indices
along with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Upper
ridge will continue to build into the central CONUS by late
Saturday, while broad surface high pressure across the Gulf and
low pressures over the Rockies will promote low-level moisture
advection. Global models continue to indicate a surge of higher
(1.75-2.0+ in) PWs by Sunday evening, although ECMWF solution is
more aggressive than other sources. Regardless, values should
approach 90th percentile of observed climatology for nearby
sounding sites, particularly surrounding Galveston Bay. With
daytime highs expected to approach forecast sounding convective
temps across the area, conditions will remain favorable for the
development of diurnal showers and thunderstorms into the early
part of the week. With the surge of moisture expected to peak on
Monday, have included 40-50% PoPs. Daily activity should diminish
upon the loss of daytime heating.

We`re likely going to need to continue the Heat Advisories through
the weekend, with daytime highs not expected to budge from the mid
to upper 90s and maximum heat indicies remaining around 110
through Monday. Low temperatures, particularly along the coast,
will not exceed the low to mid 80s, near daily record values.
Given that these elevated nighttime low temperatures can
exacerbate heat stress experienced during the day, it will remain
imperative to take heat precautions in the coming days.

ECMWF/GFS have come into better agreement regarding the departure
of the prevailing ridge axis and approach of an upper trough as we
head into the middle of next week with GFS now favoring the
slower EC solution. A cold front extending from the associated
surface cyclone remains on track to approach the CWA on late
Tuesday/early Wednesday. Both solutions now show the surface
boundary pushing into the northern counties, though a prolonged
wind shift/temperature drop is not anticipated. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with the approaching front could impact
areas north of I-10 through Thursday. Have maintained slight-
chance PoPs for now given current uncertainty.

Cady


.MARINE...

Falling pressures in the lee of the Rockies and building surface
high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will allow for a
moderate onshore flow tonight. The flow will slacken early Saturday
and veer to the SW as low pressure scoots across the southern
plains. Winds will back to the SE as a weak sea breeze moves inland.
The pressure gradient tightens again Saturday night into Sunday with
onshore winds strengthening. A moderate to occasionally light
onshore flow will persist through Wednesday with a lighter winds
expected Thu/Fri as weak high pressure settles over the northern
Gulf of Mexico.

Re-issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the bay facing shores of the
Bolivar peninsula. Water was reported on a few roads in Crystal
Beach. Overall, tides have returned to within a 1/2 foot of normal
values along the coast. 43


.CLIMATE...

The day is not complete yet so this discussion is preliminary and
subject to change but the low temperature at GLS this morning was
only 86 degrees and this would tie for the all time warmest
overnight low temperature for this site (08/12/2020 and others). The
city of Houston recorded a low temperature of 83 degrees and this
would also tie for the warmest overnight low temperature for this
location (6/23/2019 and others). Late afternoon storms could bring
some rain cooled air so the low temps could change before the end of
the day. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  77 101  77 100  79 /  20  10   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)          80  98  79  97  80 /  20  10   0  30  10
Galveston (GLS)        84  93  83  93  84 /  10  20  20  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazoria
     Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
     Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
     Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
     Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
     Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
     Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
     Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
     Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
     Jacinto...Southern
     Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazoria
     Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
     Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
     Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
     Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
     Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
     Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
     Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
     Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
     Jacinto...Southern
     Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for the
     following zones: Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula.

GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...35
MARINE...43

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
307 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>438-291700-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HT.Y.0009.200829T1500Z-200830T0200Z/
/O.CON.KHGX.HT.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-200829T0300Z/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-
Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-
Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-
Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-
Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton,
Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston,
Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham,
Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton,
Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead,
Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu,
Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton,
Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony,
Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton,
League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios,
Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque,
Surfside Beach, and Galveston
307 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values will range between 106 and 114 degrees
  for the remainder of this afternoon and the early part of this
  evening.

 For the second Heat Advisory on Saturday, heat index values will
 range between 106 and 112 degrees.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Through 10 PM this evening.

  For the second Heat Advisory, from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

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