Summary: Low white and grey stratus clouds looked to cover the whole sky during the morning and early afternoon. The low white and grey stratus clouds looked to have started to break apart, sometime during the late, or maybe mid-afternoon. Low white and grey stratus clouds looked to cover almost the whole sky, during the evening. The sky looked to have become clear, sometime during the early night. The sky looked to be clear, during the late night. The wind speeds were light with moderate gusts. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops where I was, in the Housotn, TX area, during anytime of the day. I think there was 0 to maybe 20 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area. It felt cool, during the early and mid-morning. It felt a little cool, almost cool, during the late morning and evening. It felt a little cool, almost warm, during the afternoon. It started to feel very cool, during the early night. It felt very cool, during the late night.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 240422 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1022 PM CST Mon Nov 23 2020 .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]... Band of stratus from Galveston to Katy to College Station should fill in to the west and be expanding northward as 925-850 flow flow strengthens overnight. Eastern areas will be clear with the threat of patchy fog until the stratus deck spreads in. Overnight temperatures look to start off cooler in the northeast where the radiational cooling is helping with the fog formation. Toward morning expect temperatures across the region to start rising. Have also nudged up the rain chances across most of the region in the afternoon as the cap weakens and the upper jet approaches. Primarily showers but isolated thunderstorms will certainly be possible. SPC has a marginal risk over the northeastern-most areas and wouldn`t be surprised if we do get some strong storms up in the northeast closer to the upper jet but not really expecting any severe. 45 && .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... MVFR ST deck will expand northward tonight and linger into mid morning before winds increase and get gusty with LLJ axis lined up from SW to NE mainly over the far western areas around CLL. Some brief wind shear is possible in the CLL area before the nocturnal inversion breaks 14-16z. Have afternoon VCSH in the CLL TAF and anticipate adding it to UTS/CXO/IAH in the coming update if the nearterm guidance remains this bullish. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 310 PM CST Mon Nov 23 2020/... .LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Monday]... A long wave trough over the western US will deepen as it pivots toward the desert southwest. At the surface, high pressure will be located over the eastern US with a strengthening onshore flow. A weak warm air advection pattern will develop on Thursday in response to developing low pressure over South Texas and some patchy very light rain or drizzle will begin to develop by evening. The upper trough will push very slowly east Thursday night and Friday as the base of the trough gets cut off from the main flow. The flow aloft over Texas will become more SW with time and a series of upper level disturbances will begin to move over the area. At the surface, it appears a weak boundary will develop over the northern half of the CWA and periods of showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage. Fcst soundings show PW values near 1.85 inches with a semi- saturated looking sounding. Could be some locally heavy rain over mainly the northern half of the CWA closest to the boundary. There are some significant model differences on Saturday with regard to the the frontal passage. The EC and Canadian are slower with the surface cold front while the GFS and ICON are faster. The EC and Canadian also are slower with the upper trough and this seems reasonable when compared with both the EC and GFS ensembles which are favoring the slower movement. Have leaned toward the slower frontal passage and thought the GFS was too fast, the EC too slow and the Canadian had the timing about right with a fropa Saturday evening. At this time PW values are expected to remain around 1.5 to 1.6 inches on Saturday and the jet dynamics become increasingly favorable and SE TX will lie in a well defined jet coupled at 300 mb. Low pressure over South Texas will move up the coast on Saturday and this feature will intensify as it moves toward SW LA. The combination of the low, the approaching front and favorable jet dynamics should keep rain in the forecast on Saturday. The cold front attendant to the low should cross SE TX Saturday evening with another good shot of rain both along and behind the front as there looks like there could be some weak isentropic lift as winds aloft remain out of the SW. The low will continue moving NE and surface high pressure will begin to move into the state on Sunday. The 12z EC keeps the upper low over east Texas with unsettled weather persisting. Again, leaned toward the ensembles which pushes the upper level trough axis east of the area on Sunday. Would expect some subsidence and drying on Sunday. Considerably cooler temperatures are expected next Sunday and Monday with MinT values falling into the 30`s Monday and Tuesday mornings. .MARINE... An onshore flow will return tonight as high pressure over the southern plains shifts rapidly to the east. Winds and seas could occasionally reach Caution/Advisory level winds ahead and behind of the next cold front which will cross the coastal waters on Wednesday. Winds will quickly subside Wednesday night as surface high pressure settles over LA. The high will move east on Thursday and an onshore flow will return. The onshore flow will increase to around caution levels Thursday night through Friday night as low pressure develops in South Texas. The low will remain disorganized through Saturday as it meanders up the coast and surface winds will weaken on Saturday with the wind direction ranging from E-NE to S depending on the position of the low and other meso-scale features. An approaching upper level trough will aid in organization of the surface low and the weak low will intensify as it moves toward SW LA. The departing low will drag a cold front into the coastal waters late Saturday night with winds shifting to the NW and increasing. An SCA will likely be required Sunday/Sunday night in the wake of the front as both the pressure and thermal gradient tighten in the wake of the low/front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 56 77 59 70 47 / 10 30 50 20 0 Houston (IAH) 58 79 68 77 55 / 0 40 30 40 0 Galveston (GLS) 65 77 71 77 66 / 0 30 10 50 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Tuesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...45 MARINE...41
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