Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Jun. 20 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning, before sunrise.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was warm, mostly cloudy, and mostly dry. Scattered light to heavy showers and thunderstorms passed through most of the Houston, TX area, during the early morning. There looked to be some isolated short lived light showers in and around the Houston, TX area, during the rest of the day. A thunderstorm with lots of lightning and loud thunder passed over my house, during the early morning, before sunrise. That was the only rain that I saw. The sky stayed mostly covered in alto stratus and stratocumulus clouds, except for during the early morning after sunrise and maybe the rest of the morning, where the sky looked to be mostly clear. The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts with some really strong gusts. It felt warm during the morning, evening, and night. It felt hot during the afternoon. There was a hazardous weather statement and a hurricane local statement issued by NOAA and a tropical storm watch that turned into a tropical storm warning, for the Houston, TX area. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's with maybe some 80's, for the Houston, TX area.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: I wasn't expecting to see a tropical storm warning issued today for the Houston, TX area, nor was I expecting to see any thunderstorms this morning. I am interested to see what happens next with tropical storm Cindy and Houston, TX. It looks like it will most likely be a wind/rain event.



Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
858 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

TXZ200-213-214-238-220200-
Chambers-Galveston-Harris-Liberty-
858 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Tropical Storm Cindy has formed in the north central Gulf of
Mexico. The storm will move toward the upper Texas coast on
later tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Chambers, Galveston,
Harris and Chambers counties. Tropical Storm Cindy will move
toward the Texas/Louisiana state line early Thursday. The storm
will bring a multitude of hazards to the region including
sustained winds between 25 and 35 mph with higher gusts, heavy
rain and elevated tides. Elevated tides could produce coastal
flooding. Rainfall amounts will average about 2 to 4 inches with
higher amounts between 4 and 6 inches possible. Rainfall rates
will ultimately determine the flood threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Emergency managers and storm spotters should prepare for possible
activation Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

$$


Hurricane Local Statement
TROPICAL STORM CINDY LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 6
TXZ200-213-214-238-211130-

TROPICAL STORM CINDY LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  AL032017
1016 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

THIS PRODUCT COVERS SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CINDY STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - NONE

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHAMBERS, GALVESTON,
      HARRIS, AND LIBERTY

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TX
    - 26.4N 91.0W
    - STORM INTENSITY 60 MPH
    - MOVEMENT NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAINS
ARE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR AND EAST OF
THE TRACK, AND IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY NEAR AND EAST OF A GALVESTON
TO HOUSTON TO LIVINGSTON LINE. MINOR WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS
MAY BE SEEN AROUND THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. THERE, UNSECURED LIGHT
OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT, AND AREAS VULNERABLE TO FLOODING - SUCH AS
NEAR HIGHWAY 87 - MAY SEE UP TO A FOOT OF INUNDATION AROUND TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
    - LOCALIZED RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT A FEW EVACUATIONS.
    - RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY RISE WITH SWIFTER CURRENTS.
      SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME
      SWOLLEN AND OVERFLOW IN SPOTS.
    - A FEW PLACES WHERE RAPID PONDING OF WATER OCCURS AT UNDERPASSES,
      LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
    - UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
    - SOME SMALL TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF.
    - ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

* SURGE:
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. UP TO 1 FOOT OF INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOLIVAR
PENINSULA AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

* TORNADOES:
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
THERE IS A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IN PLACE FOR THOSE WITH MEDICAL AND OTHER SPECIAL
NEEDS FOR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LIMITED SERVICES
AVAILABLE FOR THOSE ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL FLOODING ALONG
HIGHWAY 87.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX AROUND 5 AM CDT, OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$


Tropical Storm Warning

CINDY LOCAL WATCH/WARNING STATEMENT/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  AL032017
1013 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

TXZ213-211115-
/O.CON.KHGX.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
HARRIS-
1013 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS AREA AND WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN
      POSSIBLE
        - PEAK WIND FORECAST: 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: ELEVATED
        - THE WIND THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
          PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
        - EMERGENCY PLANNING SHOULD INCLUDE A REASONABLE THREAT FOR
          TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OF 39 TO 57 MPH.
        - TO BE SAFE, PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LIMITED WIND
          IMPACTS. EFFORTS SHOULD NOW BE UNDERWAY TO SECURE ALL
          PROPERTIES.
        - HAZARDOUS WIND IS POSSIBLE.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LIMITED
        - UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
        - ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREAS.

* STORM SURGE
    - NO STORM SURGE INUNDATION FORECAST

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: NONE
        - THE STORM SURGE THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
          PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
        - EMERGENCY PLANNING FOR THIS EVENT NEED NOT INCLUDE A THREAT
          FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING. THE GROUND WILL REMAIN LARGELY
          UNFLOODED FROM SURGE WATER OR ONLY HAVE SPOTS MINIMALLY
          AFFECTED BY SURGE WATER ENCROACHMENT. SURF CONDITIONS MAY
          STILL BE ROUGH WITH SOME BEACH EROSION. STRONGER THAN
          NORMAL RIP CURRENTS MAY ALSO BE PRESENT.
        - LITTLE TO NO PREPARATIONS NEEDED TO GUARD AGAINST STORM
          SURGE FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LITTLE TO NONE
        - LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM STORM SURGE FLOODING.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - PEAK RAINFALL AMOUNTS: 2-4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
          AMOUNTS

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: ELEVATED
        - THE FLOODING RAIN THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM
          THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
        - EMERGENCY PLANNING SHOULD INCLUDE A REASONABLE THREAT FOR
          MINOR FLOODING WHERE PEAK RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NEAR AMOUNTS
          CONDUCIVE FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND RAPID INUNDATION.
        - TO BE SAFE, PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LIMITED FLOODING
          RAIN IMPACTS.
        - LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF FLOOD RELATED WATCHES
          AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED, HEED RECOMMENDED ACTIONS.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LIMITED
        - RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY RISE WITH SWIFTER
          CURRENTS. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND
          DITCHES MAY BECOME SWOLLEN AND OVERFLOW IN SPOTS.
        - A FEW PLACES WHERE RAPID PONDING OF WATER OCCURS AT UNDERPASSES,
          LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - SITUATION IS UNFAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: NONE
        - THE TORNADO THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
          PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
        - EMERGENCY PLANNING NEED NOT INCLUDE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
          SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
          OCCUR.
        - LITTLE TO NO PREPARATIONS NEEDED TO GUARD AGAINST TROPICAL
          TORNADOES.
        - ENSURE READINESS FOR THE NEXT TROPICAL TORNADO EVENT.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LITTLE TO NONE
        - LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TORNADOES.

$$
Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 210230
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
930 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.UPDATE...
No changes to previous watch/warning configurations.

At 00z, the LCH sounding showed PW values near 1.90 inches while
the CRP sounding is a bit drier at 1.70 inches. 850 mb moisture
was increasing from the east and the edge of the deeper moisture
extended from about Tyler to Port Bolivar. At 500 mb, an expansive
upper ridge extended east into western MS but last night, the GFS
was a bit stronger with the ridge so perhaps the influence of this
feature will be less than anticipated. With a weaker ridge,
perhaps TS Cindy could be tugged a bit further north before
reaching the TX coast. At 300 mb, a pocket of 25-30 knots will
still provide some shear and could hinder intensification.

Tropical Storm Cindy remains nearly stationary over the north
central Gulf. The storm is expected to begin moving NW overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the coastal
waters and could encroach on the coast prior to sunrise. Rain
chances will likely increase through the day with higher rain
chances Wednesday night into Thursday. A Flash Flood Watch may be
required for parts of the area for Wednesday night.

Previous forecast has a good handle on things so no significant
changes planned.  43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/

AVIATION...
Impacts from TS Cindy should begin to affect KGLS this evening as
wind gusts will be likely during showers from rain bands. One band
was shown by radar to be moving into the Upper Texas coastal
waters at 2330Z and may affect KGLS by 03Z. Winds should increase
during the day on Wednesday after about 14Z for the inland sites.
Gusts will range from just over 20 knots well inland at KCLL and
KUTS to near 30 knots at KGLS at the coast. Ceilings will possibly
lower to near MVFR by the late afternoon on Wednesday.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Cindy continues to dominate the
forecast as it meanders over the Central Gulf. The new advisory
drifts the track a bit more to the west, necessitating the upgrade
of the tropical storm watch area to a tropical storm warning. The
expectation for primary threat to the area continues to be for
heavy rainfall along and east of the track`s expected center,
which may cause some limited flooding threat. Some minor impacts
from wind gusts and elevated tidal levels may be seen in parts of
the Bolivar Peninsula as well. More details can be found in issued
tropical products.

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Weather continues to be hot and largely dry across Southeast Texas
today while Tropical Storm Cindy continues to try to organize well
offshore. Radar has shown some showers trying to develop along a
coastal boundary from Liberty County southwest through Brazoria
County towards Matagorda Bay. For the most part, these showers have
been isolated, light, and short-lived. However, near Matagorda Bay,
these showers have been a bit more successful.

These showers should come to an end this evening, but overnight look
for rain chances over the offshore waters to increase as the
circulation of Cindy continues to draw nearer. Over land, expect
scattered clouds to become a bit more dominant overnight, but
don`t expect temperatures to fall below the middle to upper 70s
thanks to high dewpoints.

SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The caveat right up front: This portion of the forecast is going
to be very dependent on the precise track of Cindy. A deviation in
track to the left or right will move impact areas accordingly.

Now, much of the morning should continue as past days have.
The key harbinger of change will be increasing clouds from the
southeast as Cindy moves closer to the area. Most should stay dry
Wednesday morning with most outer rains still offshore - however,
immediate coastal areas may start to see increased showers begin
to pop up. Rainfall potential will increase through the afternoon,
with the prime time for rain occurring Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Some heavy rains will obviously be possible,
with the highest threat along and east of the storm`s center.
As of the current forecast track for the storm, this will put the
heaviest rain east of the Houston metro, from the coast up towards
Livingston. It`s worth noting that Cindy`s lopsided appearance
means that the rainfall gradient on the west side of the center is
likely to be very sharp, with the difference between solid rain
totals and very little rain not likely to be separated by a great
distance. Because of this, will hold off on any flash flood
watches for now to gain some more confidence on where the heaviest
rain is likely to fall.

Cindy`s center will continue to move north through Thursday and
Thursday night, before a northern stream trough passing through
the Great Lakes will draw what`s left of the storm to the
northeast through Louisiana. As it does so, rain chances will draw
down, but continue to linger into Thursday night. It probably goes
without saying, but high temperatures will be noticeably cooler
with cloudy skies and rain keeping temperatures down. Overnight,
though, these factors will also keep low temperatures elevated,
suppressing the diurnal curve in temperatures.

LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Friday and Friday night look a bit drier as Cindy accelerates
away from the region. But this trend does not look to be terribly
long lived as the upper trough that takes the storm away will dig
into the Eastern US, and help a cold front slide into the area.
There is considerable uncertainty in exactly how this front will
behave, but for now models suggest it may stall out in the general
vicinity of the coast, and could provide a focus for continued
rainy activity into early next week. Previous guidance had also
brought in a surge of very high moisture - about 2.3 inches of
precipitable water - as well, which alerted to potential that
Cindy may be a predecessor event for later high rainfall. The GFS
has since backed off of that, but still keeps precipitable water
around or above 1.75 inches with weak to non-existent capping,
which could allow for some very rainy showers and storms. With
strong focus put on Cindy, simply want to highlight the fact that
continued showers and storms may be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      74  91  75  87  76 /  10  20  40  60  40
Houston (IAH)              78  88  77  86  78 /  10  50  80  70  60
Galveston (GLS)            81  85  80  86  83 /  20  70  80  70  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Chambers...
     Galveston...Harris...Liberty.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 6 PM CDT Thursday
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay.

     Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
     from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
     Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43

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