Monday, June 26, 2017

Jun. 26 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.



Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was warm, mostly  cloudy, and a little wet. Light to heavy showers and thunderstorms were scattered across the Houston, TX area, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. Light to moderate and some moderately heavy rain fell at my house in northwest Houston, TX, during the evening and early night. I didn't see anymore rain after that. I didn't see any lightning, but I think I heard some distant rumbles of thunder, at my house in northwest Houston, TX, during the evening and early night. Stratocumulus, stratus, and nimbus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle gusts and some moderate gusts. It felt warm during the morning, evening, and night. It felt hot during the afternoon. There was a hazardous weather outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA and there were some flood advisories issued for southeast Houston, TX. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the high temps looked to be in the 80's with maybe some 90's, for the Houston, TX area.


Storm Summary: There were reports of flash flooding in and around the Houston, TX area, during the late afternoon, evening and night. I didn't see any flooding, just some wet roads and left over puddles from yesterdays showers and thunderstorms. I didn't see, or hear about any storm damage.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: I didn't think I was going to see any rain today, but I managed to see some.



Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
444 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-270945-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
444 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected today. Very localized heavy rainfall and 20 to 40 mph
wind gusts will be a possibility in the strongest cells. Several
inches of rain could fall in a short time period...quickly running
off to produce street and small stream flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Periods of showers and thunderstorms should persist into the
middle to late parts of the work week. With a similar weather
pattern remaining in place, we will continue to monitor the
possibility for some localized heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 270220
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
920 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
At 7:00 PM, surrounding upper air sites had PW/s near 2 to 2.1
inches over the southern two-thirds of the forecast area. Over the
north, SHV had a PW of 1.4 inches. This was indicative of the
drier air that was trying to filter down into SE Texas from the
north. The moisture was evident up through 850 (15 to 16 Celsius)
and 700 mb (5 to 6 Celsius). Plenty of lift will be available
tonight with a 500 mb trough moving across the area overnight
coupled with a few surface boundaries in place from earlier and
ongoing convection. The tricky part about the forecast for the
remainder of the night will be to determine how far southward the
drier airmass will push into the area. The models differed
somewhat with the higher resolution/short term models making a
case for a bit of a push southward. Decided to keep the lessor
pops over the northeast but to also nudge the 20 percent area a
bit farther to the northeast.

Otherwise, chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the night. Will have a chance for some of the slower
moving storms to generate 1 to 3 inches of rain in spots which may
in turn cause isolated minor flooding. Bit tough to determine
actually where this will occur but best chances for the isolated
heavier rainfall will be generally across the Interstate 10
corridor given the moisture axis present at 700 mb.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

AVIATION.../00Z TAF/
The radar is still pretty active this evening with boundary
collisions from outflows causing new development. TAFs will carry
VCSH/VCTS through 01-02Z this evening. Radar and GOES 16 vis
imagery shows outflow coming from Cleveland towards KIAH so will
need to monitor that for new development. Otherwise any new
development should be from KCXO to KUTS/KCLL. There are a couple
new showers between KSGR/KHOU and new activity in the gulf headed
towards KLBX. Again lots to monitor and likely see some amending
until convection dissipates. Convection should dissipate with the
loss of heating, but there is still a moist airmass over the area
which given a couple hours to recharge could produce new storms
later tonight.

Overnight while there could be a few lingering showers/storms,
think overall should have VFR conditions. There might be some
MVFR/IFR conditions for KCLL and maybe KCXO/KLBX should skies
clear enough and fog/low clouds develop.

Tomorrow looks to same as today with 2 inch precipitable water
airmass over the region. Convective temperatures in the mid/upper
80s should still trigger storms along any existing boundaries.
Should get scattered activity again with multiple outflow boundary
collisions providing lift for storms.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      72  89  71  91  74 /  20  50  10  40  10
Houston (IAH)              73  87  73  89  75 /  30  50  20  50  30
Galveston (GLS)            78  86  78  86  79 /  40  50  50  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Jun. 25 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Katy, TX, during the mid-afternoon.

Katy, TX, during the early evening.
Cypress, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was warm, mostly cloudy, and wet. Light to heavy showers and thunderstorms were scattered across the Houston, TX area, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. A few light to moderately heavy with maybe some heavy showers and thunderstorms looked to have passed over my house, during the early and maybe mid-morning. I didn't see anymore rain until the early evening when I was volunteering at a Petsmart in Katy, TX, during the early evening. I didn't see anymore rain after that. Mainly stratus with alto stratus and some nimbus clouds covered most of the sky during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds were calm with gentle gusts and maybe some moderate gusts. It felt warm during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. It may have felt hot during the afternoon, but I don't remember. There was an heat advisory issued for the early and mid-afternoon. There was also a hazardous weather outlook, issued for today, for Houston, TX, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, advisories, alerts, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the highs looked to be in the 80's with maybe some 90's, for the Houston, TX area.


Storm summary: Just a few regular showers and thunderstorms that left nothing more than some wet roads and a few small puddles. I didn't hear about any flooding, or storm damage.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX, Cypress, TX, Katy, TX


Thoughts: I am really enjoying this wet weather that Houston, TX has been having. I hope it continues!



Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
607 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-261115-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
607 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected today. With deep moisture in place and slow storm
movement expected, localized heavy rainfall will be a possibility
in the stronger cells. Several inches of rain could fall in a
short time period...quickly running off to produce street
and small stream flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Periods of showers and thunderstorms should persist into the
middle of the week. With a similar weather pattern in place, we
will continue to monitor the possibility for some localized heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

$$

Jun. 24 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
North Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.


Summary: The day was wet, warm, and mostly cloudy. A huge cluster of light to heavy showers and thunderstorms passed through the Houston, TX area, during the morning and early afternoon. There were still some isolated showers and thunderstorms in and around the Houston, TX area, during the mid and late afternoon, evening, and night. I stopped seeing any showers and thunderstorms, sometime during the early afternoon. Stratus and nimbus clouds looked to cover the whole sky and sometimes only most of the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with maybe a few gentle to moderate gusts. It felt warm during the morning, early afternoon, evening, and night. It felt very warm, almost hot, for a few minutes, sometime during the mid, or maybe late afternoon, when the sun was trying to peak out. There were no watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements that I know of. But there was probably at least a hazardous weather outlook and maybe a flood advisory, but I don't remember seeing one. The low temps were in the 70's and the high temps were in the 80's with maybe some 90's. 


Storm Summary: I saw lots of ponding on the roads and I heard reports of flash flooding from people at work. I didn't hear about, or witness any storm damage.


Locations: North and northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: I got to see lots of rain! I enjoyed seeing it.

Friday, June 23, 2017

Jun. 23 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Cypress, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.


Summary: The day was sunny, hot, and mostly cloudy. No rain. I didn't see any rain anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, on TWC's radar, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, hear, or feel any rain drops. Alto stratus with stratocumulus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts with some strong gusts. It felt warm during the morning and night. It felt really hot during the afternoon. It felt hot during the early evening. It felt very warm during the late evening. There was a heat advisory issued for today and a hazardous weather outlook issued for tomorrow, for the Houston, TX, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's, for the Houston, TX area.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX and Cypress, TX.


Thoughts: It felt really hot today. I am excited for the showers and thunderstorms this weekend.



Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1048 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-198>200-212-213-227-241600-
Fort Bend-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Liberty-Madison-Montgomery-Polk-
San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-
1048 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat index values between 102 and 107 are expected today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Increased chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
weekend into early next week. With slow storm motions, we will be
keeping an eye on the possibility for some localized heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

$$

Jun. 22 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was warm, mostly cloudy, and wet. A swirling band of light to heavy showers with maybe a few thunderstorms passed through the Houston, TX area, during the morning. There still looked to be some isolated light to moderate showers scattered in and around the Houston, TX area, on TWC's Houston, TX radar, during the afternoon and evening. The rain looked to have mostly left with maybe a few lingering light showers in and around the Houston, TX area, during the night. I know my house received a few light to moderately heavy showers during the early morning and I did see some light to moderate showers at work in northwest Houston, TX, during the early, mid, and maybe late morning. The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts with maybe some strong to really strong gusts, during the early morning, before sunrise. The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts with maybe some strong gusts, during the rest of the day. Light grey to dark grey, thick, stratus clouds with some dark grey nimbus clouds covered the whole sky, during the morning. The light to dark grey, thick, stratus and dark nimbus clouds started to break a part during the early afternoon and were only covering most of the sky, during the mid and late afternoon. Big, thick, white alto stratus with greyish blue stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the early evening. Alto stratus clouds with maybe still some stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the late evening and night. It felt warm during the morning, evening, and night. It felt hot during the afternoon. There was a hazardous weather statement issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There was also a tropical storm warning and tropical weather statement issued along with maybe a coastal flood advisory, for the Houston, TX area. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the high temps looked to be in the 80's, or maybe 90's, or maybe at least a few 90's, for the Houston, TX area. Notes: Tropical storm Cindy left the Houston, TX area with some minor flash flooding and maybe some coastal flooding. I didn't here anything about any wind damage, or severe weather.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX


Thoughts: Well at least Houston, TX  got some rain from tropical storm Cindy. But I heard from my coworkers that some areas of Houston, TX didn't get that much rain. I know my area did since the tropical storm was mostly north of Houston, TX, some of the rain bands must have been able to reach the north and northwest side of Houston, TX.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Jun. 21 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
West Houston, TX, during the early evening.
West Houston, TX, during the late night.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late night.


Summary: The day was warm, mostly cloudy, and dry. A few bands of light to moderate showers and possible thunderstorms made it over to east, central, and some parts of west Houston, TX, during the afternoon, evening, and night. I saw a few rain drops on my cars windshield in northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon. Some light drizzle was falling on my way from Pluckers in west Houston, TX to my house in northwest Houston, TX, during the late night. alto stratus and stratus clouds with stratocumulus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts with some really strong gusts, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. It felt warm, during the morning, mid and late afternoon, evening, and night. It felt hot during the early afternoon. There was still a tropical storm warning issued for the Houston, TX area, along with a tropical weather statement. There also might have been some coastal flood advisories issued for the southern areas of Houston, TX. There were no other watches, warnings, advisories, weather statements, or alerts issued for the Houston, TX, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the high temps looked to be in the 80's, or maybe 90's, or at least maybe some 90's, for the Houston, TX area. I didn't hear about, or see any storm damages, or flooding from tropical storm Cindy, for the Houston, TX area. There were reports of storm surge at Galveston, TX beaches, but that is the only thing that I have heard about from tropical storm Cindy.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Not much going on with tropical storm Cindy, for the Houston, TX area, today. Just some minor strong winds and a few bands of rain. Maybe Houston, TX will see more from tropical storm Cindy tomorrow.


Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
337 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-221200-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Colorado-Fort Bend-Galveston-Galveston Bay-Grimes-Harris-Houston-
Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-Matagorda Bay-Montgomery-Polk-
San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
Wharton-
337 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Tropical Storm Cindy is expected to make landfall near the Texas Louisiana
border tonight and move inland on Thursday. Periods of showers and tstms
can be expected, especially near the center of the circulation where
locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Breezy to windy north to northwest
winds can be expected too.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Tropical Storm Cindy is expected to move inland near the Texas Louisiana
border on Thursday. Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected,
especially near the center of the circulation where locally heavy rainfall
will be possible. Breezy to windy northwest to west winds will weaken
as the day progresses. Rain chances will persist into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Emergency managers and storm spotters should prepare for tonight 
through Thursday morning.

$$

Hurricane Local Statement

TROPICAL STORM CINDY LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 10
TXZ200-213-214-238-221115-

TROPICAL STORM CINDY LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  AL032017
1006 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2017

THIS PRODUCT COVERS SOUTHEAST TEXAS

RAINS FROM CINDY BEGINNING TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - NONE

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHAMBERS, GALVESTON,
      HARRIS, AND LIBERTY

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TX
    - 28.6N 93.4W
    - STORM INTENSITY 50 MPH
    - MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS APPROACHING THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTLINE THIS EVENING, AND HAS NOW BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST. SOME
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO IMPACT THE AREA ALREADY. RAINFALL
REMAINS THE MAIN THREAT TO THE EAST OF A GALVESTON TO HOUSTON TO
LIVINGSTON LINE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS MAY BE SEEN ON THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND. MINOR WIND IMPACTS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, AND MAY INCLUDE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES -
PRIMARILY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE FLOODING RAIN ARE STILL UNFOLDING ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. REMAIN WELL GUARDED AGAINST LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS FLOOD WATERS HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED
IMPACTS. IF REALIZED, THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE:
    - RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY RISE WITH SWIFTER CURRENTS.
      SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME
      SWOLLEN AND OVERFLOW IN SPOTS.
    - A FEW PLACES WHERE RAPID PONDING OF WATER
      OCCURS AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE
      AREAS. SEVERAL STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS BECOME
      NEAR-FULL AND BEGIN TO OVERFLOW.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

* WIND:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE MAIN WIND EVENT ARE NOW UNFOLDING ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME LOCATIONS...INCLUDING GALVESTON...HAVE
SEEN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. IF REALIZED, WIND IMPACTS INCLUDE:
    - UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND.
    - SOME TREE LIMBS DOWN.
    - ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

* SURGE:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE MAIN SURGE EVENT ARE NOW UNFOLDING FOR THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND.
REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SURGE HAVING LIMITED IMPACTS. IF
REALIZED, THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE:
    - LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
      IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS.
    - SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME OVERSPREAD
      WITH SURGE WATER. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS IS HIGHWAY 87 ON THE BOLIVAR
  PENINSULA. DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE DANGEROUS IN PLACES WHERE
      SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

* TORNADOES:
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
THERE IS A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IN PLACE.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
CONTINUE TO KEEP YOUR CELL PHONE WELL CHARGED FOR AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE. IF YOU LOSE POWER, USE IT MORE SPARINGLY AND MAINLY FOR
PERSONAL EMERGENCIES AND CHECK-INS.

IF YOU ARE A VISITOR IN THE AREA, BE SURE YOU KNOW THE NAME OF THE COUNTY
YOU ARE IN. PAY ATTENTION FOR INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BE READY TO ADAPT TO POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX AROUND 4 AM CDT, OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

Tropical Storm Warning

CINDY LOCAL WATCH/WARNING STATEMENT/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  AL032017
957 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2017

TXZ213-221100-
/O.CON.KHGX.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
HARRIS-
957 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

 * WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
        - PEAK WIND FORECAST: 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: ELEVATED
        - THE WIND THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
          PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
        - EMERGENCY PLANNING SHOULD INCLUDE A REASONABLE THREAT FOR
          TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OF 39 TO 57 MPH.
        - TO BE SAFE, PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LIMITED WIND
          IMPACTS.
        - HAZARDOUS WIND IS POSSIBLE.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LIMITED
        - UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
        - ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREAS.

* STORM SURGE
    - NO STORM SURGE INUNDATION FORECAST

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: NONE
        - THE STORM SURGE THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
          PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
        - EMERGENCY PLANNING FOR THIS EVENT NEED NOT INCLUDE A THREAT
          FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING. THE GROUND WILL REMAIN LARGELY
          UNFLOODED FROM SURGE WATER OR ONLY HAVE SPOTS MINIMALLY
          AFFECTED BY SURGE WATER ENCROACHMENT. SURF CONDITIONS MAY
          STILL BE ROUGH WITH SOME BEACH EROSION. STRONGER THAN
          NORMAL RIP CURRENTS MAY ALSO BE PRESENT.
        - LITTLE TO NO PREPARATIONS NEEDED TO GUARD AGAINST STORM
          SURGE FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
        - ENSURE READINESS FOR THE NEXT STORM SURGE EVENT.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LITTLE TO NONE
        - LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM STORM SURGE FLOODING.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - PEAK RAINFALL AMOUNTS: ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
          HIGHER AMOUNTS

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: ELEVATED
        - THE FLOODING RAIN THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM
          THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
        - EMERGENCY PLANNING SHOULD INCLUDE A REASONABLE THREAT FOR
          MINOR FLOODING WHERE PEAK RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NEAR AMOUNTS
          CONDUCIVE FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND RAPID INUNDATION.
        - TO BE SAFE, PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LIMITED FLOODING
          RAIN IMPACTS.
        - LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF FLOOD RELATED WATCHES
          AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED, HEED RECOMMENDED ACTIONS.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LIMITED
        - RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY RISE WITH SWIFTER
          CURRENTS. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND
          DITCHES MAY BECOME SWOLLEN AND OVERFLOW IN SPOTS.
        - A FEW PLACES WHERE RAPID PONDING OF WATER OCCURS AT
          UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - SITUATION IS UNFAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: NONE
        - THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS
          ASSESSMENT.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LITTLE TO NONE
        - LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TORNADOES.

$$
Area Forecast Discussion  Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 220224
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
924 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Changes: Will be issuing a Coastal Flood Advisory for Brazoria
County through 15z Thursday.

Tropical Storm Cindy getting closer to the Louisiana coast. This
feature will make landfall early Thursday. 00z sounding data shows
a very moist airmass at LCH with PW values near 2.50 inches
(probably a bit contaminated by a shower). PW values at CRP are
considerably drier with values under an inch. It appears that the
dry air on the western edge of Cindy is prevailing as
precipitation moving west continues to evaporate as it moves west.
Have lowered rain chances over the western half of the CWA due to
the dry air. Kept rain chances high over the east and added
locally heavy rain to the weather grids over the extreme east as a
cluster of strong storms over Western Louisiana pushes west.
Tweaked min temps a degree or so mainly to match obs.


PW values are progged to increase to over 2 inches on Thursday and
daytime heating coupled with the higher moisture should yield
scattered shra/tsra during the day. Very high sfc dew pts and warm
afternoon temps on Friday will yield some high heat index values.
Would not be surprised if a few locations reached or exceeded 105
degrees on Friday aftn. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/

AVIATION...
Tropical Storm Cindy`s impacts are the main concern for the first
12 hours and especially so for the first 6 hours. Rain bands were
evident on radar. Winds were gusting to 30 knots at KGLS and
expect winds to gust to between 20 and 30 knots over the inland
over the inland areas through 04Z. An exception is KCLL since the
site appears to be too far west for the rain bands to reach.
However, there is a slight chance the bands could reach KCLL. If
so, gusty winds of about 25 knots will be possible there as well.
MVFR conditions should develop later this evening over most of the
sites. As Cindy moves inland on Thursday, do expect conditions of
generally improve during the late morning to midday time period.
However, bands of showers and thunderstorms will be possible again
during the afternoon.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Tropical Storm Cindy continues heading toward the TX/LA border area
with a landfall still anticipated to happen tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms have begun moving into the Chambers County-Galveston
Bay-Bolivar Peninsula area. Breezy/gusty north to northeast winds
this afternoon (generally running around 15 to 25 mph inland and
25 to 30 mph coast) will shift to the northwest and west overnight
as the circulation center works its way onshore. Look for periods
of showers and thunderstorms to move westward into the area overnight
with the best chances and highest amounts possibly setting up across
parts of our far eastern counties (Chambers/Liberty/San Jacinto/Polk).
Rainfall totals tonight through Thursday should range from around/under
1/4 inch out west to 1 to 3 inches out east, and higher amounts are
possible in/around those far eastern counties listed mentioned above
where WPC is currently carrying a slight risk of excessive rainfall.
Still looking for rain chances to persist for the end of the week,
on into the weekend, and into the start of next week as precipitable
water values remain very high under a persistent onshore flow while
a weak frontal boundary sags southward into our area.  42

MARINE...
Overview and winds:  Still looking at tropical storm force winds to
develop over the marine areas tonight. Around 2:50 PM, a platform
just outside our marine zones at the East Breaks at 393 feet
recorded a wind of 39 gust to 45 knots. Even though it is way above
the surface, it does show the potential for tropical storm force
wind gusts in showers and storms currently moving through the marine
areas. No change in the warning/advisory configurations.

Tides/seas:  Tides have gradually been piling up against the islands
and peninsulas on the lower sides of the bays. For example, Rollover
Pass on the bayside of the Bolivar Peninsula has tides over 3 feet,
while Pier 21 was between 3.9 and 4 feet since noon time. Even along
the coast with the downside of the earlier high tide, tide levels
at 2:48 PM were near 4 feet at the Galveston Bay Entrance and 3.4
feet at Freeport. Do expect some subsiding levels during the times
of low tide later this evening. However, tide levels will rise back
up to possibly reach levels seen earlier today as Cindy makes
landfall. Have received reports of tidal flooding on portions of the
Strand in Galveston -- on the bayside of the island.

Seas at buoy 42035 and 42019 were 7 to 12 feet with a period of 10
to 11 seconds early this afternoon. Wave runup combined with the
rough seas and high tides will continue to provide a flood potential
most certainty in the areas under the tropical storm warning and
could affect the Blue Water Highway further down the coast.
Currently have a coastal flood advisory in effect for Brazoria
County through 4:00 PM and will look to see if this needs to be
extended.

Have not had any indications of low water problems up in the Ship
Channel yet. Manchester actually had water levels about 1.5 feet
above the Mean Lower Water Levels. Will continue to monitor this
possibility later tonight. Still a complicated scenario.

As was discussed earlier, as Cindy moves inland, winds will
gradually back to the west on Thursday then to the south Thursday
night. Moderate onshore winds will then persist into the weekend.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      74  91  76  93  77 /  20  30  20  30  30
Houston (IAH)              76  86  77  92  78 /  50  50  40  50  30
Galveston (GLS)            78  85  82  90  82 /  60  50  40  60  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Chambers...
     Galveston...Harris...Liberty.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
     from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
     Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Jun. 20 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning, before sunrise.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was warm, mostly cloudy, and mostly dry. Scattered light to heavy showers and thunderstorms passed through most of the Houston, TX area, during the early morning. There looked to be some isolated short lived light showers in and around the Houston, TX area, during the rest of the day. A thunderstorm with lots of lightning and loud thunder passed over my house, during the early morning, before sunrise. That was the only rain that I saw. The sky stayed mostly covered in alto stratus and stratocumulus clouds, except for during the early morning after sunrise and maybe the rest of the morning, where the sky looked to be mostly clear. The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts with some really strong gusts. It felt warm during the morning, evening, and night. It felt hot during the afternoon. There was a hazardous weather statement and a hurricane local statement issued by NOAA and a tropical storm watch that turned into a tropical storm warning, for the Houston, TX area. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's with maybe some 80's, for the Houston, TX area.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: I wasn't expecting to see a tropical storm warning issued today for the Houston, TX area, nor was I expecting to see any thunderstorms this morning. I am interested to see what happens next with tropical storm Cindy and Houston, TX. It looks like it will most likely be a wind/rain event.



Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
858 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

TXZ200-213-214-238-220200-
Chambers-Galveston-Harris-Liberty-
858 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Tropical Storm Cindy has formed in the north central Gulf of
Mexico. The storm will move toward the upper Texas coast on
later tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Chambers, Galveston,
Harris and Chambers counties. Tropical Storm Cindy will move
toward the Texas/Louisiana state line early Thursday. The storm
will bring a multitude of hazards to the region including
sustained winds between 25 and 35 mph with higher gusts, heavy
rain and elevated tides. Elevated tides could produce coastal
flooding. Rainfall amounts will average about 2 to 4 inches with
higher amounts between 4 and 6 inches possible. Rainfall rates
will ultimately determine the flood threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Emergency managers and storm spotters should prepare for possible
activation Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

$$


Hurricane Local Statement
TROPICAL STORM CINDY LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 6
TXZ200-213-214-238-211130-

TROPICAL STORM CINDY LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  AL032017
1016 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

THIS PRODUCT COVERS SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CINDY STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - NONE

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHAMBERS, GALVESTON,
      HARRIS, AND LIBERTY

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TX
    - 26.4N 91.0W
    - STORM INTENSITY 60 MPH
    - MOVEMENT NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

TROPICAL STORM CINDY IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAINS
ARE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR AND EAST OF
THE TRACK, AND IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY NEAR AND EAST OF A GALVESTON
TO HOUSTON TO LIVINGSTON LINE. MINOR WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS
MAY BE SEEN AROUND THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. THERE, UNSECURED LIGHT
OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT, AND AREAS VULNERABLE TO FLOODING - SUCH AS
NEAR HIGHWAY 87 - MAY SEE UP TO A FOOT OF INUNDATION AROUND TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
    - LOCALIZED RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT A FEW EVACUATIONS.
    - RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY RISE WITH SWIFTER CURRENTS.
      SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME
      SWOLLEN AND OVERFLOW IN SPOTS.
    - A FEW PLACES WHERE RAPID PONDING OF WATER OCCURS AT UNDERPASSES,
      LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
    - UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
    - SOME SMALL TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF.
    - ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

* SURGE:
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. UP TO 1 FOOT OF INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOLIVAR
PENINSULA AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

* TORNADOES:
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
THERE IS A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IN PLACE FOR THOSE WITH MEDICAL AND OTHER SPECIAL
NEEDS FOR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LIMITED SERVICES
AVAILABLE FOR THOSE ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL FLOODING ALONG
HIGHWAY 87.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX AROUND 5 AM CDT, OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$


Tropical Storm Warning

CINDY LOCAL WATCH/WARNING STATEMENT/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  AL032017
1013 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

TXZ213-211115-
/O.CON.KHGX.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
HARRIS-
1013 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS AREA AND WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN
      POSSIBLE
        - PEAK WIND FORECAST: 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: ELEVATED
        - THE WIND THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
          PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
        - EMERGENCY PLANNING SHOULD INCLUDE A REASONABLE THREAT FOR
          TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OF 39 TO 57 MPH.
        - TO BE SAFE, PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LIMITED WIND
          IMPACTS. EFFORTS SHOULD NOW BE UNDERWAY TO SECURE ALL
          PROPERTIES.
        - HAZARDOUS WIND IS POSSIBLE.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LIMITED
        - UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
        - ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREAS.

* STORM SURGE
    - NO STORM SURGE INUNDATION FORECAST

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: NONE
        - THE STORM SURGE THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
          PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
        - EMERGENCY PLANNING FOR THIS EVENT NEED NOT INCLUDE A THREAT
          FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING. THE GROUND WILL REMAIN LARGELY
          UNFLOODED FROM SURGE WATER OR ONLY HAVE SPOTS MINIMALLY
          AFFECTED BY SURGE WATER ENCROACHMENT. SURF CONDITIONS MAY
          STILL BE ROUGH WITH SOME BEACH EROSION. STRONGER THAN
          NORMAL RIP CURRENTS MAY ALSO BE PRESENT.
        - LITTLE TO NO PREPARATIONS NEEDED TO GUARD AGAINST STORM
          SURGE FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LITTLE TO NONE
        - LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM STORM SURGE FLOODING.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - PEAK RAINFALL AMOUNTS: 2-4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
          AMOUNTS

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: ELEVATED
        - THE FLOODING RAIN THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM
          THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
        - EMERGENCY PLANNING SHOULD INCLUDE A REASONABLE THREAT FOR
          MINOR FLOODING WHERE PEAK RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NEAR AMOUNTS
          CONDUCIVE FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND RAPID INUNDATION.
        - TO BE SAFE, PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LIMITED FLOODING
          RAIN IMPACTS.
        - LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. IF FLOOD RELATED WATCHES
          AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED, HEED RECOMMENDED ACTIONS.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LIMITED
        - RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY RISE WITH SWIFTER
          CURRENTS. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND
          DITCHES MAY BECOME SWOLLEN AND OVERFLOW IN SPOTS.
        - A FEW PLACES WHERE RAPID PONDING OF WATER OCCURS AT UNDERPASSES,
          LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - SITUATION IS UNFAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: NONE
        - THE TORNADO THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
          PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
        - EMERGENCY PLANNING NEED NOT INCLUDE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
          SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
          OCCUR.
        - LITTLE TO NO PREPARATIONS NEEDED TO GUARD AGAINST TROPICAL
          TORNADOES.
        - ENSURE READINESS FOR THE NEXT TROPICAL TORNADO EVENT.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LITTLE TO NONE
        - LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TORNADOES.

$$
Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 210230
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
930 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.UPDATE...
No changes to previous watch/warning configurations.

At 00z, the LCH sounding showed PW values near 1.90 inches while
the CRP sounding is a bit drier at 1.70 inches. 850 mb moisture
was increasing from the east and the edge of the deeper moisture
extended from about Tyler to Port Bolivar. At 500 mb, an expansive
upper ridge extended east into western MS but last night, the GFS
was a bit stronger with the ridge so perhaps the influence of this
feature will be less than anticipated. With a weaker ridge,
perhaps TS Cindy could be tugged a bit further north before
reaching the TX coast. At 300 mb, a pocket of 25-30 knots will
still provide some shear and could hinder intensification.

Tropical Storm Cindy remains nearly stationary over the north
central Gulf. The storm is expected to begin moving NW overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into the coastal
waters and could encroach on the coast prior to sunrise. Rain
chances will likely increase through the day with higher rain
chances Wednesday night into Thursday. A Flash Flood Watch may be
required for parts of the area for Wednesday night.

Previous forecast has a good handle on things so no significant
changes planned.  43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/

AVIATION...
Impacts from TS Cindy should begin to affect KGLS this evening as
wind gusts will be likely during showers from rain bands. One band
was shown by radar to be moving into the Upper Texas coastal
waters at 2330Z and may affect KGLS by 03Z. Winds should increase
during the day on Wednesday after about 14Z for the inland sites.
Gusts will range from just over 20 knots well inland at KCLL and
KUTS to near 30 knots at KGLS at the coast. Ceilings will possibly
lower to near MVFR by the late afternoon on Wednesday.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Cindy continues to dominate the
forecast as it meanders over the Central Gulf. The new advisory
drifts the track a bit more to the west, necessitating the upgrade
of the tropical storm watch area to a tropical storm warning. The
expectation for primary threat to the area continues to be for
heavy rainfall along and east of the track`s expected center,
which may cause some limited flooding threat. Some minor impacts
from wind gusts and elevated tidal levels may be seen in parts of
the Bolivar Peninsula as well. More details can be found in issued
tropical products.

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Weather continues to be hot and largely dry across Southeast Texas
today while Tropical Storm Cindy continues to try to organize well
offshore. Radar has shown some showers trying to develop along a
coastal boundary from Liberty County southwest through Brazoria
County towards Matagorda Bay. For the most part, these showers have
been isolated, light, and short-lived. However, near Matagorda Bay,
these showers have been a bit more successful.

These showers should come to an end this evening, but overnight look
for rain chances over the offshore waters to increase as the
circulation of Cindy continues to draw nearer. Over land, expect
scattered clouds to become a bit more dominant overnight, but
don`t expect temperatures to fall below the middle to upper 70s
thanks to high dewpoints.

SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The caveat right up front: This portion of the forecast is going
to be very dependent on the precise track of Cindy. A deviation in
track to the left or right will move impact areas accordingly.

Now, much of the morning should continue as past days have.
The key harbinger of change will be increasing clouds from the
southeast as Cindy moves closer to the area. Most should stay dry
Wednesday morning with most outer rains still offshore - however,
immediate coastal areas may start to see increased showers begin
to pop up. Rainfall potential will increase through the afternoon,
with the prime time for rain occurring Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Some heavy rains will obviously be possible,
with the highest threat along and east of the storm`s center.
As of the current forecast track for the storm, this will put the
heaviest rain east of the Houston metro, from the coast up towards
Livingston. It`s worth noting that Cindy`s lopsided appearance
means that the rainfall gradient on the west side of the center is
likely to be very sharp, with the difference between solid rain
totals and very little rain not likely to be separated by a great
distance. Because of this, will hold off on any flash flood
watches for now to gain some more confidence on where the heaviest
rain is likely to fall.

Cindy`s center will continue to move north through Thursday and
Thursday night, before a northern stream trough passing through
the Great Lakes will draw what`s left of the storm to the
northeast through Louisiana. As it does so, rain chances will draw
down, but continue to linger into Thursday night. It probably goes
without saying, but high temperatures will be noticeably cooler
with cloudy skies and rain keeping temperatures down. Overnight,
though, these factors will also keep low temperatures elevated,
suppressing the diurnal curve in temperatures.

LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Friday and Friday night look a bit drier as Cindy accelerates
away from the region. But this trend does not look to be terribly
long lived as the upper trough that takes the storm away will dig
into the Eastern US, and help a cold front slide into the area.
There is considerable uncertainty in exactly how this front will
behave, but for now models suggest it may stall out in the general
vicinity of the coast, and could provide a focus for continued
rainy activity into early next week. Previous guidance had also
brought in a surge of very high moisture - about 2.3 inches of
precipitable water - as well, which alerted to potential that
Cindy may be a predecessor event for later high rainfall. The GFS
has since backed off of that, but still keeps precipitable water
around or above 1.75 inches with weak to non-existent capping,
which could allow for some very rainy showers and storms. With
strong focus put on Cindy, simply want to highlight the fact that
continued showers and storms may be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      74  91  75  87  76 /  10  20  40  60  40
Houston (IAH)              78  88  77  86  78 /  10  50  80  70  60
Galveston (GLS)            81  85  80  86  83 /  20  70  80  70  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Chambers...
     Galveston...Harris...Liberty.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 6 PM CDT Thursday
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay.

     Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
     from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
     Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43