Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Jan. 15 18

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Houston, TX radar, during the early night.


Summary: The day was warm, sunny, and mostly dry. A cluster of light to moderate showers looked to have passed through the Houston, TX area, during the evening and early and maybe late night. I think I felt a few rain drops, while I was at work in northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening. I don't think I felt, saw, or heard anymore drops of precip after that. Alto stratus with maybe some stratus clouds, looked to be scattered across the sky, during the morning and afternoon. I think stratus clouds looked to cover the whole, or maybe most of the sky, during the evening and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with maybe some gentle to moderate gusts and moderately strong gusts. I think it felt very cool, maybe cold, during the early morning. I think it felt cool, during the mid-morning. It started to feel warm, sometime during the early afternoon, or maybe late morning. It felt warm, during the mid and late afternoon. It started to feel cool, during the early evening. It felt cool, during the late evening and early night. It started to feel very cool, becoming cold, during the late night. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook and a Winter Storm Warning issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temperatures looked to be in the low 40's ,maybe high 30's, I think, and the high temperatures looked to be in the mid 60's with maybe some high 60's, for the Houston, TX area.


Houston, TX Storm Summary: A cluster of light to moderate showers looked to have passed through the Houston, TX area, during the early and maybe late night. I didn't see, or hear about any flooding, or damage caused by the weather, to any of the locations in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day.


My Storm Summary: I think I felt a few rain drops, while I was at work in northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening. I don't think I felt, saw, or heard anymore drops of precip after that. I think the roads and ground stayed dry, where I was, during the day. Even during the evening and night, where there looked to be some rain in some locations in the Houston, TX area. I didn't see any lightning strikes, or hear any rumbles of thunder. I didn't see any flooding, or damage caused by the weather, where I was, during the day.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: A little warm day, before the cold!


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 160514
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1114 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.AVIATION...
Precip has redeveloped in the wake of a strong cold front that
crossed KCLL around 04z and will cross Houston between 07-08z and
the coast between 09-10z. Light rain will develop in the wake of
the front and transition to a mix of light rain/freezing rain and
sleet. The transition will occur first at KCLL, KUTS and KCXO as
early as 09z but more likely between 10-12z. The transition at
KIAH will occur between 12-15z with a mix of rain/freezing rain
and sleet. Fcst soundings do support a change over to snow during
the afternoon. A mix of rain and sleet will develop at KSGR and
KHOU by 16z with the frozen precip lingering during the
afternoon. Mainly rain is expected at KGLS with some sleet and
possibly snow mixing in by afternoon. Most of the precipitation
will end by 01z. Strong north winds will develop in the wake of
the front and will begin to subside toward Tuesday evening.
Generally IFR ceilings are expected behind the front gradually
lifting to MVFR by morning with some VFR conditions developing by
late afternoon over the northern TAF sites and after 00z over the
south. SKies are expected to become VFR areawide between 06-09z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/

UPDATE...
Evening surface analysis showed a cold front stretching from
Temple to Palestine, with temperatures in the D/FW Metroplex
having already falling to freezing behind the front. Simple
extrapolation of the latest frontal movement places the front into
College Station by 9:30 PM, Houston by 12 AM, and Galveston by 2
AM. With surface pressure rises behind the front having increased
over the past few hours, have very little reason to think the cold
front will slow down at all and have lowered overnight
temperatures and temperatures during the day Tuesday 2-3 degrees
as a result. A late evening update may be required should this
faster trend continue. Have also added a mention of rain/freezing
rain/sleet into Burleson, Brazos, Madison, and Houston beginning
after midnight to account for these colder temperature trends as
light to moderate rain in the vicinity of the front gradually
transitions as the layer of cold air behind it deepens. Did not
make any changes to the ongoing Winter Storm Warning or Winter
Weather Advisory with this addition as surface temperatures will
be too warm for impacts to begin before 3 AM CST.

Winds will quickly become northerly and gusty behind frontal
passage, remaining elevated through the day Tuesday. These winds
are expected to be strong enough to produce wind chills in the
single digits to teens at times Tuesday morning. Have opted to
include this hazard in the ongoing Winter Storm Warning instead of
issuing a separate Wind Chill Advisory to keep hazard
communication as simple as possible during a complicated event.

Intermittent periods of sleet, freezing rain, and even snow will
spread south through the day Tuesday, reaching the Houston metro
after sunrise and the coast after noon. Continual precipitation is
not expected through the day... but moreso several 2-4 hour
periods where precipitation occurs as waves of frontogenetic
forcing moving across the region keep the atmosphere primed to
produce winter weather. Colder temperatures during the day Tuesday
will only help encourage the potential for ice accumulations.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...
It is so nice to see temperatures in the mid/upper 60s today. So
wish I could be outside to enjoy instead of bringing the bad news.
What`s that saying? If you don`t like the weather in Texas just
wait 5 minutes? That`s the forecast for tonight/tomorrow. So let`s
get to it.

Currently the arctic cold front is pushing into Red River region
and north Texas. Latest surface obs at 12Z show a 1048-1050mb high
sitting over NE Montana/NW North Dakota. Water vapor imagery shows
that nice closed low over the Great Lakes and broad vorticity
maximum over the Plains swinging southward. Upper air analysis
shows highly amplified pattern with ridge over the western U.S.
driving the polar jet due south over the Plains.

Tuesday...This is probably one of my top 5 toughest most
challenging forecasts to make and one of the toughest forecast
decisions to make. Big thanks to our forecast team collaborating
on this but 12Z models all show very similar trends. Ensembles
like SREF/GEFS seem to be showing something similar.

First thing we saw was temperatures in the boundary layer are
trending colder so we had to trend surface temperatures colder and
sooner than previous forecast. This calls for freezing
temperatures for most of the day on Tuesday with precipitation
falling.

Second the transition of precipitation types looked on track with
a transition Tuesday morning from rain - freezing rain - sleet -
snow. Model soundings from NAM/GFS show this trend. The ECMWF also
showed colder 850MB temps by 18Z Tuesday indicating a similar
trend. There is a fight between the moisture over the frontal
surface and precip falling versus the drier boundary layer air
coming into from the north. This could allow for precip to end
sooner than expected but it will have to overcome quite a bit of
thermodynamic wet bulbing to do it.

Third increase in frontogenetic lift at several levels. GFS/NAM
all show frontogenesis at 925-850mb and 850-700mb layers. There is
also jet stream configuration with the right entrance region over
much of SE Texas and quite a bit of 500-300mb Q vector
convergence supporting large scale lift. These seem to come
together a little bit late but still lift over the area 18Z
Tuesday to 00Z Wednesday. This all suggests possible banded
precipitation and you even see hints of that in the QPF output in
the models. I`m not going to get into a discussion of CSI and
lapse rates but cross sections do show pockets of CSI and steeper
lapse rates in these areas. Frontogenesis will be driving most of
the banding anyway.

Fourth we need to emphasize freezing rain/sleet as the primary
threat for most of the area. Most ice accumulations will be from a
few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. Banding could lead to
higher amounts of ice leading to need a winter storm warning. With
this potential in mind, we decided on a winter storm warning for
areas along and north of Interstate 10. Farther north there could
be a band of snow from Brenham/Conroe/Livingston north with
generally 1 inch of snow possible which would fall on already icy
conditions from freezing rain/sleet prior to snow. There very
well could be some sleet/snow late afternoon/evening in the
Houston area but freezing rain will be the main issues south of
Conroe.

Precipitation should come to an end Tuesday night with low
temperatures Wednesday morning requiring a hard freeze warning. In
the extended forecast there looks to be a chance of rain Friday
with warm air advection. This continues Saturday into Sunday with
another front pushing through Sunday. This time it looks like a
line of showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday. High pressure
builds in with more cold conditions.

Overpeck

MARINE...
A Gale Warning is now in effect for the coastal waters tomorrow
afternoon through early Weds morning. A Small Craft Advisory is
also in effect for the bays during this same time frame.

Light onshore winds the rest of this afternoon and tonight will be
giving way to strong/gusty offshore winds tomorrow morning on into
the afternoon and overnight hours. This cold arctic airmass is ex-
pected to bring frequent gusts to 34 knots, mainly during the late
afternoon/evening across the coastal waters, with a sustained N/NE
wind of 20 to 30 knots persisting into early Weds morning. Seas to
build into 6 to 8 feet nearshore and around 10 or 11 feet offshore.
Precipitation should be rain/showers...but isolated locales in the
upper parts of the bays could experience some freezing rain during
the late morning/early afternoon time frame on Tues. Low water is-
sues could also present themselves Tues/Weds given the strong off-
shore flow combined with the predicted low astronomical tides.

Winds/seas should be decreasing to below SCA/Gale Warning criteria
Weds morning/afternoon...but SCEC conditions could linger over the
offshore waters as the surface high re-centers itself over the S/E
U.S. and maintains a tight east-to-west gradient over the northern
Gulf. Models keeping with the idea of a coastal low developing at/
near the middle TX coast Thurs/Fri. Along with a brief shifting of
winds (around this system), unsettled weather to return before the
low moves east/washes out Sat. Light/moderate onshore winds should
prevail the rest of the weekend , with the next cold front progged
to move offshore late Sun. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      26  29  20  37  24 /  70  60  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              32  35  23  39  27 /  60  70  20  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            39  44  28  40  34 /  50  70  30  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday
     night for the following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...
     Colorado...Grimes...Harris...Houston...Liberty...Madison...
     Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
     Waller...Washington.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to midnight CST
     Tuesday night for the following zones: Brazoria...
     Chambers...Fort Bend...Galveston...Jackson...Matagorda...
     Wharton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday
     night for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay.

     Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
509 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-161300-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
509 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A strong cold front will push through the area late tonight with periods
of rain beginning overnight. Some of the rain could transition over
to a wintry mix before sunrise up north where the falling temperatures
approach the freezing mark.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Temperatures will fall throughout the day on Tuesday with areas of rain
gradually changing over to a wintry mix from north to south as the
day progresses. Little to no accumulation is anticipated at this time.
However, if the accumulation risk grows or travel hazards increase,
a Winter Storm Watch or a Winter Storm Warning might be needed.

Cold temperatures are expected Tuesday night in the wake of the front,
with lows reaching the upper teens to around 20 up north and in the
upper 20s at the coast. Any remaining water from Tuesday`s activity
could freeze and create additional ice issues. A Hard Freeze Warning
and a Wind Chill Advisory might be needed for portions of the area.
Please keep up with the latest forecasts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation might be needed late tonight through Tuesday night.

$$

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
917 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A strong arctic cold front will push through Southeast Texas
tonight, clearing the coast by sunrise. Temperatures will fall
behind the front with most of Southeast Texas below freezing by
midday Tuesday. Precipitation will be falling through the day
with the possibility of pockets of heavier precipitation and
bands. There will be a transition of precipitation going from rain
to freezing rain to sleet and possibly snow. This change will
occur as temperatures fall behind the front. Greatest potential
for ice accumulation and snow fall accumulation appears to be
along and north of Interstate 10. The frozen precipitation will
impact elevated surfaces like overpasses and bridges. Where
temperatures are below freezing longer, impacts to roads and
possibly power lines are expected with icing. Precipitation will
end from north to south late Tuesday so portions of the warning
and advisory may be cancelled early. Wind chills will also fall
into the single digits or teens for a period of time Tuesday
morning.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-170600-
/O.CON.KHGX.WS.W.0001.180116T0900Z-180117T0600Z/
Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Liberty-
Madison-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-
Washington-
Including the cities of Bellville, Brenham, Brookshire, Bryan,
Caldwell, Cleveland, Coldspring, College Station, Columbus,
Conroe, Corrigan, Crockett, Dayton, Eagle Lake, Groveton,
Hempstead, Houston, Humble, Huntsville, Katy, Lake Somerville,
Liberty, Livingston, Madisonville, Navasota, Onalaska, Pasadena,
Prairie View, Sealy, Shepherd, The Woodlands, Tomball, Trinity,
Weimar, and Willis
917 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Freezing rain will be the primary hazard for all areas in the
warning with the potential of an eighth of an inch of ice
accumulations especially in any bands. Amounts of a few
hundredths to a tenth of an inch are more likely but these
amounts will still impact roads, bridges and overpasses.

Snowfall accumulations are more likely north of a Brenham, Conroe
to Livingston line. Again with any banded precipitation there is
the potential for snowfall greater than 1 to 2 inches. Most areas
may get 1 inch of snow and this may fall on top of freezing rain
and sleet.

* WHAT...Intermittent periods of winter weather across Southeast
  Texas, including:
  - Freezing rain accumulation potentially an eighth of an inch or
    more but with a tenth or less more likely. Minor ice
    accumulations possible on power lines.
  - Snowfall accumulation potentially 2 inches north of Brenham
    to Livingston with 1 inch most likely. Trace snowfall amounts
    possible north of Interstate 10 where freezing rain is most
    likely hazard.
  - Hazardous wind chills in the single digits to teens Tuesday
    morning.

* WHERE...Mainly north of Interstate 10

* WHEN...Tuesday morning through the evening

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Impacts of icing to elevated surfaces
  such as bridges and overpasses. Road conditions will worsen
  for areas with temperatures below freezing for a longer period
  of time. Snow falling on top of any icy surfaces will cause
  those surfaces to become even more icy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow...
sleet...and ice are expected or occurring. Strong winds are also
possible. This will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

&&

$$

Jan. 14 18

Spring, TX, at Fred Hass Toyota World, waiting for my cat's oil to be changed during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, on the way back home, in my car, from Fred Haas Toyota World, during the early afternoon.
Forecasting winter weather for the Houston, TX area.


Summary: The day was cool, sunny, and dry. I don't remember seeing any rain on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I don't remember seeing, feeling, or hearing any rain drops, where I was, during the day. The sky looked to be clear, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with maybe some gentle to moderate gusts and some moderately strong gusts. I think it felt cold, during the early morning and night. It felt very cool, during the mid and late morning. It started to feel cool, during the early afternoon. It felt cool, during the mid and late afternoon. I think it felt very cool, during the evening. There was a Winter Weather Advisory issued for Tuesday and Wednesday, for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temperatures looked to be in the 30's, I think, and the high temperatures looked to be in the mid 50's, for the Houston, TX area.


Houston, TX Storm Summary: I don't remember seeing any rain on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, or  hear about any flooding, or damage caused by the weather, to any of the locations in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day.


My Storm Summary: I don't remember seeing, feeling, or hearing any rain drops, where I was, during the day. I don't remember seeing any rain producing, or thunderstorm type clouds, where I was, during anytime of the day. I didn't see any lightning strikes, or hear any rumbles of thunder, where I was, during the day. The roads and ground looked to be dry, where I was, during the day. I didn't see any flooding, or damage caused by the weather, where I was, during the day.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX, Spring, TX, and maybe North Houston, TX.


Thoughts: It felt miserable during the morning, but then it started to feel almost pleasant during the afternoon.

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Jan. 13 18

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
West Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Near the heights in Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
West Houston, TX, at the Edwards Theater, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was cool, sunny, and dry. I didn't see any precip on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, feel, or hear any drops of precip, where I was, during anytime of the day. The ground felt crunchy from possible ice formed from the dew on the grass, as I got out of my car, during the early morning. The sky looked to have stayed clear, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with some possible gentle to moderate gusts and moderately strong gusts. It felt very cold, during the early and mid-morning. It felt very cool, during the late morning and early night. It felt cool, during the afternoon and evening. It started to feel very cold, during the late night. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. The low temps looked to be in the low 30's with maybe some high 20's, I think, and the high temps looked to be in the low 50's, I think, for the Houston, TX area.


Houston, TX Storm Summary: I didn't see any precip on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, or hear about any flooding, or damage caused by the weather, to any of the locations in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did see and feel some ice on the grass, when I was getting out of my car, during the early morning. I also think I saw some trucks prepping the road for possible ice accumulations.


My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any drops of precip, where I was, during anytime of the day. The ground felt crunchy from possible ice formed from the dew on the grass, as I got out of my car, during the early morning. The road and ground stayed dry through the rest of the day. There might have been some puddles left over from previous days rain. I didn't see any flooding, or damage caused by the weather, where I was, during the day. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder, or see any lightning strikes. I didn't see any rain producing, or thunderstorm type clouds, where I was, during anytime of the day.


Locations: Northwest, west, and the heights Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Just another cool and sunny January day for the Houston, TX area.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 132329
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
529 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure over NW Texas will bring generally clear skies to
the region tonight. Could get a brief window of cirrus between
09-15z but VFR conditions will prevail. Winds remain light tonight
and will veer to the E and eventually SE by late Sunday afternoon
but wind speeds generally expected to remain at or below 6 knots.
43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/

DISCUSSION...

..Today through Tuesday Night...
Quiet and cool weather this weekend will gradually warm to the
upper 50s to mid 60s by Monday as high pressure slides east and
onshore flow returns. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to dip
below freezing across most of the inland areas, but a hard freeze
is not anticipated.

Rain chances increase Monday evening through Tuesday as a cold
front pushes through the area. The predominant precipitation type
is expected to be rain, however there is still a slight chance of
some wintry precipitation mixing in across the northern parts of
the area early Tuesday morning. At this point it`s still a little
to early to nail down precipitation type, and for now all types
of frozen precipitation (snow, sleet, and freezing rain) are on
the table. It really comes down to how fast the cold air sweeps in
behind the front vs how quickly the post-frontal precip ends. The
ECMWF is faster with the front bringing it through more overnight
Monday night, vs the GFS/NAM solutions of a Tuesday morning
frontal passage. Previous ECMWF run showed faster drying behind
the front in addition to being quicker than the others, however,
the latest run is showing some lingering precipitation well after
the freezing line passes. Although confidence is slowly increasing
that frozen precipitation is possible, overall chances are still
fairly low. Right now, the best chance for frozen precipitation is
along and north of a Columbus-Conroe-Livingston line. If frozen
precip falls, light accumulations (<0.1 inch) will be possible.
With temperatures falling throughout the day Tuesday and into
Tuesday night, any wet surfaces remaining will likely freeze with
low temperatures in the low 20s to low 30s Tuesday night. A Hard
Freeze Warning may be required for portions of the area. 11

..Wednesday through Saturday...
High pressure builds in Wednesday behind the cold front and will
quickly progress eastward across the Central Plains. Onshore flow
and moisture will return Thursday as the surface high moves over
the Tennessee Valley. An upper-level shortwave trough moves
through the area Thursday night with strong warm air advection and
lift, so precipitation is expected Thursday night through Friday.
The biggest issue is if the precipitation begins early enough on
Thursday to catch the below freezing temperatures, freezing rain
is possible along the northernmost counties. Confidence is
currently low enough that no fzra was included in the grids, but
it is something we will watch out for moving forward. Behind the
shortwave, a gradual warming trend will continue through the
weekend before the next cold front passes on Sunday. 22

MARINE...
Will be keeping the Low Water Advisory up through the evening
hours given the combination of moderate NE flow and low
astronomical tide times helping to keep MLLW levels at or around
-1.00 feet. Elevated winds and seas have also persisted over the
offshore waters and will also maintain the SCEC for these
locations into this evening.

As high pressure continues to move off to the east...we will be
seeing a slow veering of winds to the east overnight through
tomorrow. Generally light SE winds are expected across the coastal
waters Sun night and should persist through Mon. Models remain on
track with a strong cold front moving into the Gulf Tues
afternoon. Gusty north/ northeasterly winds in the wake of the
boundary will likely require Small Craft Advisories Tues night
into Weds morning. The associated arctic high building down from
the Plains is forecast to linger in/ around the Middle MS Valley
region through the rest of the week and its proximity should keep
moderate/strong east winds in place. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      30  53  35  61  33 /   0   0   0  10  50
Houston (IAH)              32  53  37  62  44 /   0   0   0  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            41  48  46  57  50 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 PM CST this evening
     for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
432 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-141300-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Colorado-Fort Bend-Galveston-Galveston Bay-Grimes-Harris-Houston-
Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-Matagorda Bay-Montgomery-Polk-
San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
Wharton-
432 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Several hours of below freezing temperatures are possible early this
morning and again tonight through early Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Several hours of freezing temperatures can be expected early Sunday
morning. The next cold front is anticipated to move through the area
Monday night through Tuesday morning. There is a chance that some
wintry precipitation could occur as temperatures fall behind the front.
Several hours of freezing temperatures will be possible Tuesday night
and again on Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation might be needed late Monday night through Tuesday.

$$

Saturday, January 13, 2018

Jan. 12 18

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX


Thoughts: The day was cool and sunny. Not enough time to write the weather summary for this day.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 130517
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1117 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.AVIATION...
N/NE winds continue to fall below 10kts across all TAF sites this
evening besides GLS which has seen some gusts up to 20 kts right
along the coast. Surface high pressure continues to build into the
region tonight keeping skies clear, and VFR conditions are
anticipated through the TAF period. Still expecting to see wind
speeds pick up shortly after sunrise to around 10-15 kts with the
help of daytime mixing.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018/

UPDATE...
Surface ridging nosing into Southeast Texas continues to result
in decreasing winds this evening with 9 PM temperatures in the
mid 30s to lower 40s. Clear skies will help promote excellent
radiational cooling with a few locations north of a Burleson-
Conroe-Cleveland line experiencing a brief, hard freeze tonight.
The current forecast handles temperature trends well with most
inland locations experiencing freezing or below freezing
temperatures tonight. However, the currently forecast 1-2 hour
drop to hard freeze temperatures (25 F or below) around sunrise
is too brief to issue a Hard Freeze Warning at this time. Should
temperatures begin to drop off faster than anticipated, a late
evening update may be needed to issue a Hard Freeze Warning.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high
pressure continues to build into SE TX this evening. Wind speeds
have began to lower and should continue to fall below 10 kts
across all TAF sites, shortly after sunset. The wind direction
should switch from NNW to NE overnight, once again turn out of
the N/NW come sunrise Saturday morning. Wind speeds again will
approach 10 kts across most of the inland TAF sites Saturday
morning, with 10-15 kts possible at coastal terminals such as GLS.

Hathaway

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A dry, but cold weekend is in store across the region. Most inland
locations will see freezing overnight temperatures tonight and
Saturday night. A few areas northeast of a Burleson-Cleveland line
may see readings briefly dip to around 24 degrees tonight. We`re
not planning to issue a hard freeze warning at the moment, but
will let the next shift reevaluate the trends.

Winds gradually veer to an onshore direction on Sunday...allowing
for a return of moisture to the region through the day Monday
ahead of an Arctic front that`ll be diving southward through the
Plains.

Models are in fairly good agreement bringing the frontal boundary,
and associated precipitation ahead of and behind it, into
southeast Texas late Monday night and Tuesday. It`s still too
early to accurately predict the thermal profile at the surface and
aloft that far out, but chances are that portions of the area may
see precip transition from liquid to frozen at some point as
temperatures fall through the day. Expect changes to the forecast
as time gets closer, details become more clear (hopefully), and
forecast confidence improves.

Precip should come to an end Tuesday evening. Cold temperatures will
linger through the midweek time period, followed by gradual moderating
trend going into the weekend as onshore winds resume.  47

MARINE...
Gusty NNW winds will continue to gradually diminish and become NE
through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect this
afternoon, with caution flags likely needed through Saturday. Winds
gradually become light onshore again by Sunday night ahead of the
next cold front, which should push off the coast around Monday
night. Gusty NE winds are expected in the wake of this front, and an
SCA will likely be required Tuesday. Winds gradually become onshore
again by Thursday.

The Low Water Advisory has been extended until 4 AM CST as water
levels remain over 2.5 feet below normal at Morgan`s Point.
Conditions should gradually improve as winds slacken and turn more N
to NE tonight.  11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      26  47  27  52  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              29  49  28  52  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            35  49  37  50  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 4 PM CST Saturday for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Saturday afternoon
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters
     from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
428 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-131300-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Colorado-Fort Bend-Galveston-Galveston Bay-Grimes-Harris-Houston-
Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-Matagorda Bay-Montgomery-Polk-
San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
Wharton-
428 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

It will be breezy and cold today with winds decreasing as the day
progresses. Several hours of freezing temperatures can be expected
tonight across a majority of inland Southeast Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Another night of freezing temperatures can be expected Saturday night
through Sunday morning. The next cold front is anticipated to move through
the area Monday night through Tuesday morning. There is a chance that
some precipitation could become frozen across parts of our northern
counties as temperatures fall behind the front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation might be needed Monday night through Tuesday
morning.

$$

Friday, January 12, 2018

Jan. 11 18

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late morning.
West Houston, TX, during the late morning.
Houston, TX radar, during the late morning.
Houston, TX Medical Center during the early afternoon.

Houston, TX radar, during the early afternoon.
Houston, TX Medical Center, during the early afternoon. After the first line of thunderstorms passed through.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Houston, TX radar, during the mid-afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Houston, TX radar, during the late afternoon.
Houston, TX radar, during the early evening. 


Summary: The day was mostly warm, mostly cloudy, and wet. Clusters of pop up moderate to moderately heavy and some heavy and maybe sometimes really heavy showers and mostly thunderstorms passed through the Houston, TX area, during the late morning, afternoon, and evening. I first started to feel and see some light rain, where I work in northwest Houston, TX, during the late morning. Some light rain looked to pass over my dad and me on our way to the Medical Center, during the late morning and early afternoon. A line of heavy to maybe really heavy thunderstorms passed over the building that my dad and me where in, in the Medical Center, during the early afternoon. Another cluster of showers and thunderstorms passed over my neighborhood, where I was, during the mid and late afternoon, and parts of the early evening. I didn't see anymore drops of precip after that. Stratus clouds with some alto stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky and maybe sometimes the whole sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. I think stratus clouds looked to cover the whole sky, during the night. The wind speeds were calm with maybe some gentle to moderate gusts and some moderately strong gusts, during the morning and early afternoon. The wind speeds started to become gentle with moderate to moderately strong gusts and some really strong 20 to 30+ mph gusts, during the mid-afternoon and stayed that strong, through the late afternoon, evening, and night. It felt cool, during the early morning. It felt a little cool, during the mid-morning. It started to feel warm, during the late morning. It felt warm, during the early afternoon. It started to feel cool with a very cool wind, during the mid-afternoon. It felt cool with a strong very cool wind, during the late afternoon, evening, and night. It started to feel very cool with a strong cold wind, during the late night. There was a wind advisory issued for the Houston, TX area, for the mid afternoon, through tomorrow, early in the morning at 3 am, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temperatures looked to be in the low 40's with maybe some high 30's and the high temperatures looked to be in the low 70's, for the Houston, TX area.


Houston, TX Storm Summary: Clusters of pop up moderate to moderately heavy and some heavy and maybe sometimes really heavy showers and mostly thunderstorms passed through the Houston, TX area, during the late morning, afternoon, and evening. I didn't see, or hear about any flooding, or damage, caused by the weather, to any of the locations in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. 


My Storm Summary: I first started to feel and see some light rain, where I work in northwest Houston, TX, during the late morning. Some light rain looked to pass over my dad and me on our way to the Medical Center, during the late morning and early afternoon. A line of heavy to maybe really heavy thunderstorms passed over the building that my dad and me where in, in the Medical Center, during the early afternoon. Another cluster of showers and thunderstorms passed over my neighborhood, where I was, during the mid and late afternoon, and parts of the early evening. I didn't see anymore drops of precip after that. It looked like there might have been some flash flooding, when my dad and I left the Medical Center, on our way back to his store in west Houston, TX. I don't remember seeing any lightning strikes, but I did hear some low rumbles of thunder. I didn't see any storm damage caused by the weather, but I did see some pictures of hail, from one of my co-workers, at my job in northwest Houston, TX. I don't know if the hail caused any damage, or not. The hail looked to be quarter sized.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX, and the Montrose and the Medical Center areas of Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Very strong wind gusts! I enjoyed the thunderstorms.

Jan. 10 18

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
West Houston, TX, during the early night.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX, and the Heights and Kirby area of Houston, TX.


Thoughts: The day was a little warmer than the day before. I didn't get time to write this day's weather summary.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 110409
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1009 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

.UPDATE...
Warm front stalled near the coast just south of GLS. Some light
fog north of the warm front around the GLS bay area but winds
appear to be helping to maintain the stratus deck. Guidance split
on where the warm front waffles to overnight. Higher res models
leave it in place along the coast and possibly even sagging
southward where as GFS is more aggressive moving it inland. For
now have favored the slower movement but this could make for a
bust at GLS with temperatures potentially rising the remainder of
the night.

On a further note cold front racing south through KS with
dryline/prefrontal trough in West TX slowly moving eastward. The
prefrontal trough should swing eastward through the area Thursday
afternoon with the cold front a 1-3 hours behind it. Very strong
winds are expected behind the front and will persist well into
Friday. Northerly winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 35 to 40 look
within reach and could even be stronger. Wind advisory a given and
combined with the winds the temperatures should make the wind
chill readings plummet into the 20-30 degree range 7 PM Thursday
through 8 AM.

00Z runs also continue to support the threat of thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon (CAPE 500-1100j/kg with LI of -2 to -5)
especially for the northeast and central areas with the erosion of
any lingering capping. Hodographs by that point though are
relatively linear so other than perhaps some small hail with the
stronger storms am not expecting any severe weather.

45

45




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018/

AVIATION...
Afternoon surface analysis shows a surface low over southeastern
Colorado with an attendant cold front and prefrontal trough
extending south into southwest Texas. VFR ceilings outside of the
IFR/MVFR ceilings impacting the Houston terminals are expected to
lower to MVFR overnight as east to southeast winds around 5 to 10
knots advect additional moisture over the northern Gulf inland.
This will result not only in periods of sea fog near GLS this
evening as a warm front lifts inland but patchy drizzle near the
Houston terminals and points south after 09Z. Webcams around
Galveston Bay are already showing patchy sea fog development and
expect visibilities at GLS to fluctuate between IFR and MVFR this
evening before winds veer to the south overnight as the Colorado
low ejects eastward.

The departure of the Colorado low will drag the cold front and
associated prefrontal trough across the region during the day
Thursday, with winds veering to the southwest after 15Z. These
veering winds will help raise ceilings to MVFR ahead of the front.
Isolated to scattered SHRA will be possible along this prefrontal
trough, with winds increasing 15-20 knots with stronger gusts
25-30 knots behind the cold front Thursday afternoon and evening.
MVFR ceilings may linger behind the front as moisture remains
trapped beneath a post frontal inversion.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Starting to see some sea fog develop near/off the coast. Look for
some of this to start expanding inland overnight along with some
late night isolated warm air advection shra under a potent cap.
Not looking much of a temp change is expected overnight. Those at
the coast may even see a degree or two rise.

Upper trof to our west should make its way across the state
Thursday and Thursday night. Look for its associated prefrontal
trof to push thru southeast Texas during the day tomorrow. PW`s
should pool to around 1.2" along and ahead this feature and
anticipate some sct shra to develop before it pushes eastward and
out of the CWA by 3pm or so. There may be a limited window of
opportunity for the cap to erode enough for a few tstms generally
east of I-45 during the late morning/early afternoon hours. The
cold front itself will trail a few hours and will push thru
during the late afternoon and evening. The primary issue with this
system will be breezy winds in its wake. Most guidance is
indicating some 40-55kt 925mb wind speeds over the region, so
with some mixing surface wind gusts 30-40+mph gusts aren`t out of
the question Thursday night. Wind advisories will be likely. Wind
chills might dip to near 20 well inland.

After some wrap around cloudiness Friday morning, look for skies
to clear. The remainder of the forecast into early next week will
be dry and cool with upper ridging to the west providing a nw
flow aloft. A reinforcing front should push into the region Saturday.
Freezing overnight temps are a good possibility across several
inland locations Thurs/Fri/Sat/Sun nights.

Low rain chances re-enter the forecast early next week ahead of
the next front. 47

MARINE...
Moderate southeasterly winds can be expected Wednesday evening
through Thursday. Small crafts should exercise caution during this
time specifically in the offshore waters. Additionally, sea fog will
be possible within Galveston Bay and along the eastern nearshore
waters late this afternoon and through the overnight hours. Foggy
conditions are likely to continue until a strong cold front pushes
through the northern Gulf waters, Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening.

This cold front will leave behind strong northwesterly winds in its
wake, with wind speeds between 30 to 40 knots gusting to around 45
knots at times. Rough seas are expected to increase from 5-7 feet to
8-11 feet with the occasional seas up to 15 feet in the offshore
waters, early Friday morning. A Gale Watch has been issued for the
near and offshore waters for Thursday evening into Friday morning.
Small Craft Advisories and a Gale Warning will likely be needed.

Additionally, a Low Level Water Advisory looks likely behind the
cold front for Galveston Bay as guidance continues to show water
levels falling to 1.5-2.5 feet below normal. Gradually decreasing
offshore winds and lowering seas are expected over the weekend, but
caution flags and advisories may still be needed for portions of the
marine zones through Saturday night. Moderate onshore winds should
prevail by Monday morning.

Hathaway

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Friday with gusty
north northwest winds and 25-30% humidities.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      57  68  30  51  29 /  20  30  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)              59  73  35  51  31 /  20  50  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            61  71  38  50  38 /  10  50  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Thursday for
     the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...45

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
342 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ213-214-235>238-112145-
Brazoria-Chambers-
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Galveston-Galveston Bay-Harris-Jackson-Matagorda-Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
342 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Areas of fog may reduce visibility below 1 mile at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Areas of sea fog will persist into the early afternoon Thursday. Expect
strong winds in the wake of a passing cold front Thursday evening.
Wind gusts 30 to 45 mph will be possible into Friday morning. Gale
warnings and wind advisories may be required. Seas will build
offshore as this occurs. We will be keeping an eye for low water
conditions in the bays as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$