Saturday, October 21, 2017

Oct. 20 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the late morning.


Summary: The day was warm, a little wet, and windy. A swirling mass of light to moderate with embedded moderately heavy to heavy showers and thunderstorms swirled around most of the Houston, TX area, during the early morning and then only certain areas of Houston, TX, during the mid and late morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. Light to moderate showers with moderately heavy to heavy thunderstorms passed over my house, during the early morning. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts and some moderately strong to possibly strong 20 mph gusts. It felt a little cool, during the early morning. It felt warm, during the mid and late morning, afternoon, evening, and night. There were a number of flash flood watches, warnings, and advisories, as well as some special weather statements and advisories, during the early morning, for the Houston, TX area. A Hazardous Weather Outlook was issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. The low temperatures looked to be in the 60's, or maybe 70's with some possible 60's and the high temperatures looked to be in the 80's with some possible 70's, for the Houston, TX area.


Houston, TX Storm Summary: A swirling mass of light to moderate with embedded moderately heavy to heavy showers and thunderstorms swirled around most of the Houston, TX area, during the early morning and then only certain areas of Houston, TX, during the mid and late morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. There were reports of flash flooding in the Houston, TX area. I didn't hear, or see any reports of any damage.


My Storm Summary: Light to moderate showers with moderately heavy to heavy thunderstorms passed over my house, during the early morning. I didn't see anymore rain after that. Just maybe some light to moderate rain, at my house, during the mid-morning. I saw only one lightning strike and heard only one possible rumble of thunder. I didn't see any flooding, just wet roads and ground, and some small puddles. I didn't see any damage.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: I am not looking forward to the series of cold fronts next week. The low temperature for the Houston, TX area next Saturday is supposed to be in the low 40's. That is January weather.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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855
FXUS64 KHGX 202101
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
401 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Latest radar imagery shows widespread showers and thunderstorms in
the Gulf off the coast of High Island. Other scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms stretched north of High Island towards
Cleveland and Crockett. None of this activity has been producing
heavy rainfall except for the activity in the Gulf where it does
not matter. A brief band of storms formed over SW Fort Bend County
and W Brazoria County where radar estimated 1 to 4 inches of
rainfall. With no rain gages in the band to get ground truth we
can only speculate that actual rainfall may have been higher since
the radar had been underestimating rainfall amounts.

Water vapor imagery shows the first short wave trough pushing out
of W Texas into W Oklahoma this afternoon. Trough axis is just
about to push into SE Texas so there may only be a few more hours
of potential shower and thunderstorm activity. Latest HRRR model
runs line up with this thinking with shower and thunderstorm
activity quickly dropping off between now and 8PM. Even the
activity embedded within the plume of higher precipitable water
should be decreasing over east Texas. There may be a few showers
overnight but otherwise expect quite conditions with low
temperatures in the 70s.

Saturday moisture may increase again with precipitable water
values back to around 1.7 to 1.9 inches. Water vapor imagery shows
a weak vorticity max approaching El Paso but the models seem to
lose this feature tonight into tomorrow. There is some weak signal
in the vorticity fields Saturday afternoon which results in a band
of showers and storms from Sugar Land to Huntsville. Still overall
activity looks isolated to widely scattered despite having CAPE
over 2000 J/kg. Lift from any kind of disturbance just does not
look strong enough to trigger widespread convection or support
severe weather. SPC does have a marginal risk for Saturday night
as a pre-frontal trough/cold front approach the area but expect
the line of storms to be weakening as it pushes south due to more
stable airmass overnight.

Sunday morning synoptic and mesoscale models are pretty good
agreement with the squall line of storms entering the forecast
area by 12Z Sunday. WRF-ARW/NMM 12z runs both show the squall line
reaching College Station to Crockett. The Texas Tech WRF shows a
similar timing but unlike the GFS/ECMWF/NAM, it basically has the
squall line decaying as it reaches the coast by 17-18Z Sunday.
There is high confidence that the area will see rain Sunday
morning with the line of storms, but rainfall amounts could be
less than forecast if trends with the mesoscale models continue.

As for severe weather, GFS/NAM/ECMWF support the possibility of it
but again the squall line could out run any of the stronger upper
level dynamics with large scale ascent occurring mainly over the
Arklatex into Arkansas. SPC has general thunderstorms for the day
3 outlook and see no reason to disagree with this assessment. The
Texas Tech WRF evolution of the line of storms certainly supports
this. We still do not want to let our guard down as for pattern
recognition supports the possibility. There will still be high
moisture over the area, strong large scale ascent although maybe
slightly north of the area, and favorable jet configuration with
the trough. The problems may come in the boundary layer as 850mb
winds become SW ahead of the line and could advect higher moisture
east faster than expected. This could be the reason why the Texas
Tech WRF shows a decaying system.

Cold front still pushes through all of the area by the end of the
day Sunday with northerly boundary layer flow continuing Monday
and Tuesday. By Tuesday the upper level pattern becomes quite
amplified which supports another frontal passage and re-enforcing
colder air. By the end of next week models suggest another deep
trough over the Rockies and Plains. This front looks much stronger
and both the GFS/ECMWF have the 850mb freezing line between
Palestine and Crockett by 12Z Saturday October 28. Again this is
the day 7-8 forecast but there is some decent model agreement with
the strength of the front.

Overpeck

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas are remaining elevated in/near the strong storms over the
coastal waters this afternoon. With the activity persisting into the
evening, will go ahead and keep the SCEC in place for both the near/
offshore waters through tonight. The onshore flow is expected to be-
come a bit more established overnite/early tomorrow with the surface
high scoots further E/NE. The increased long fetch and strengthening
SE flow could keep SCEC flags in place tomorrow. The next cold front
remain on track for passage into the Gulf waters Sun afternoon. SCEC
and SCA flags are likely in the wake of the front.

The persistent easterly wind component today has helped with the el-
evated tides this afternoon. So far...projections are on track as we
are currently nearing high tide.  Minor coastal flooding is possible
along the Bolivar Peninsula and near Surfside through early this ev-
ening. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      70  87  67  77  51 /  20  40  60  60  10
Houston (IAH)              73  86  72  82  56 /  20  30  40  80  10
Galveston (GLS)            77  84  77  83  63 /  30  30  30  80  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Galveston...Matagorda.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...39
Aviation/Marine...41



Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
501 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

TXZ213-214-237-238-211015-
Brazoria-Chambers-Galveston-Harris-
501 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A cluster of strong thunderstorms will bring periods of heavy rain
to parts of the area this morning. Flooding of feeder roads and
other low areas will be possible this morning. The rain is
expected to diminish later today.

Strong east winds will become southeast later today but elevated
tides will produce some minor coastal flooding and water could
cover parts of Highway 87 and parts of the Blue Water Highway at
high tide later today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday but
widespread heavy rain is not expected. A cold front will cross the
area Sunday morning with another round of thunderstorms expected.
Some of the stronger storms could produce brief gusty winds and
locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$

Friday, October 20, 2017

Oct. 19 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was very warm, mostly sunny, and mostly dry. A group of scattered light to moderate and some moderately heavy to heavy showers and thunderstorms were swirling around the Houston, TX area, during the night. Rain looked to have possibly passed over my house, while I was asleep, during the late night. Alto stratus and some possible stratus clouds, looked to be scattered across the sky, during the morning and early afternoon. Stratus clouds started to cover most of the sky, during the mid-afternoon. Stratus clouds looked to cover most if not the whole sky, during the late afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts and some moderately strong gusts. It felt cool, during the early morning. It felt a little cool, during the mid-morning. It started to feel warm, during the late morning. It felt very warm, during the early afternoon. It started to feel warm again, during the mid-afternoon. It felt warm, during the late afternoon, evening, and night. There were no watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temperatures looked to be in the 60's with maybe some 50's and the high temperatures looked to be in the 80's, for the Houston, TX area.


Houston, TX Storm Summary: A group of scattered light to moderate and some moderately heavy to heavy showers and thunderstorms were swirling around the Houston, TX area, during the night. I didn't hear about any reports of flooding, or storm damage, but there might have been some. Especially flooding with the moderately heavy to heavy rain that looked to have fallen in some areas of Houston, TX.


My Storm Summary: Rain looked to have possibly passed over my house, while I was asleep, during the late night. There looked be a lot of rain on the radar headed towards my area, so I don't know if any rain ever passed over my house, since I was asleep. I didn't see any lightning strikes, or damage. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Well the season of warm, then cool, then warm, then cold weather has finally begun.

Thursday, October 19, 2017

Oct. 18 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
West Houston, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was sunny, dry, and breezy. No rain. I didn't see any rain over the Houston, TX area, on the radar, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. The sky looked to be mostly clear with some cirro and alto stratus clouds in the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts and some moderately strong gusts. It felt very cool, during the early morning. It felt cool, during the mid-morning. It felt a little cool, during the late morning and  night. It felt warm, during the afternoon and evening. There were no watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX, during anytime of the day. The low temperatures looked to be in the 50's with maybe some 40's and the high temps looked to be in the 70's with maybe some 80's, for the Houston, TX area.


Houston, TX Storm Summary: No rain. I didn't see any rain over the Houston, TX area, on the radar, during anytime of the day. I didn't hear about any reports of flooding. I did hear reports of wildfires in the south and maybe north counties of the Houston, TX area, according to NOAA.


My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't see any storm, or rain producing like clouds, flooding, wet roads, puddles, wet ground, lightning, or storm damages. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX, and maybe Katy, TX.


Thoughts: Wildfires in Houston, TX? I hope they don't become widespread and force people out of their homes like in California.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 190248
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
948 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Not a whole lot of changes made on the evening update. Expect increasing
high clouds overnight as a system approaches from the west, and also
an increasing risk of low clouds and/or fog under a light wind field.
Overnight low temperatures should range from the mid to upper 50s well
inland to the lower 70s at the coast, and readings this low will not
be seen again until Monday morning after the passage of the area`s
next cold front.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR for the remainder of the evening. Hazy skies from smoke
moving in evening easterlies but it should be dispersed enough
from the fires over Chambers and Jefferson Counties to not be of
any significant impact to visibilities. Overnight calming of
winds under mainly clear skies to allow a low level temperature
inversion to form and create an environment conducive to interior
fog. Anticipating more patchy shallow fog under the stout inversion
with many (non-metro) hubs falling to around 4SM during the pre-dawn
hours. Breezes wake up from the east with a developing late morning
into afternoon few-sct cumulus field. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The big concern today for weather has been the smoke generated
from grass fires in Jefferson county along the Gulf coast. GOES 16
and radar have shown smoke plumes from these grass fires with the
smoke reaching Galveston as well as parts of metro Houston. VAD
wind profile from KHGX radar shows SE to E winds through 8000ft
AGL which is helping transport the smoke towards the area. Winds
are still rather light so mixing has not been able to disperse the
smoke as much as with stronger winds. US Fish and Wildlife may
start a prescribed burn to cut off the grass fires since they are
unable to get fire crews out to extinguish the fires. Hopefully
these fires are put out before the night time inversion sets up
and traps smoke in the low levels. Patchy fog will be possible
tonight with weak moisture return along the coast and calm winds.
Hopefully the fog and smoke do not combine to create zero
visibility issues in the morning.

Going into the weekend, models have moisture return increasing
especially on Friday with precipitable water values getting up to
1.8 to 2.0 inches. Latest upper level analysis has a weak
shortwave ridge over the area which will be moving out tomorrow as
a wave moves across the southern Rockies tonight. By Friday a
stronger trough moves into the Pacific NW with ridging over the
eastern Gulf. Given SW flow aloft on Friday with the increased
moisture as warm front pushes north, forecast will go with 40-60
percent rain chances with scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected. A few storms Friday could be strong as CAPE pushes 1500
J/kg with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear.

Saturday SW flow aloft continues but no real vorticity max to
support thunderstorm activity. Moisture axis over the area also
shifts a bit to the east so looking at slightly lower rain chances
Saturday for scattered showers and storms. There is still the
possibility of a few strong/severe storms Saturday as CAPE may get
above 2000 J/kg with steeper lapse rates ahead of the approaching
upper level trough.

Models are more progressive with the developing upper level trough
Saturday night into Sunday. As a result GFS/ECMWF/Canadian are all
faster with pushing the system across the area than previous runs.
GFS ensemble runs at 12Z kept with a more progressive system with
trough not cutting off as previous runs had been doing. The 12Z
GFS/ECMWF are in better agreement so increased rain chances to
60-70 percent. Again there will be the threat for severe weather
as the trough moves across but the strong large scale ascent may
be slightly out of phase with the surface front. This may scale
back the threat some but still enough instability and shear to
support strong/severe storms. Moisture will be high enough to
support heavy rainfall but storm motions should be fast enough
that any flooding if at all will be localized and limited to the
normal street/urban flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
looks good for the weekend but wouldn`t rule out isolated spots of
3 inches.

Front moves through Sunday and clears out moisture for the start
of the week. A deep trough then develops over the Great Lakes that
sends a re-enforcing shot of cold air into the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday morning look to be in the 50s
but if these forecast trends continue, the airmass could be colder
and send temperatures into the 40s. Still plenty of time to wait
and see but it could be another week with temperatures more like
fall than summer.

Overpeck

MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern U.S. and lower pressures over the
southern Gulf of Mexico will produce an easterly flow across the
coastal waters today. The gradient begins to tighten tonight and
winds will increase. A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow
will persist through Saturday and a SCEC will likely be required
over parts of the coastal waters. Water levels and tides are
currently progged to exceed 3.0 feet Thursday afternoon and could
exceed 3.5 feet on Friday near times of high tide. A cold front, and
associated showers and thunderstorms, will cross the coastal waters
on Sunday afternoon and a moderate to strong offshore flow will
develop Sunday night and persist into the first half of next week. A
reinforcing front is penciled in for Tuesday. Small craft
advisories are likely behind both fronts. 47

FIRE WEATHER...
Wildfires in Jefferson, Matagorda and Trinity Counties continue to
show up on satellite imagery. Transport winds have veered to the
southeast at 5-10kt and should continue that way until late evening.
But late tonight they`re forecast to weaken and back to the east
once again. Mixing heights will fall pretty quickly after sunset so
smoke closer to the fires should start becoming confined closer to
the ground. We should get pretty good mixing again by mid morning
and lift/disperse whatever smoke (if any) continues. Moisture levels
begin to increase tonight and increase significantly late Thursday
and Friday as onshore winds strengthen. Rain chances will increase
on Friday and should remain high through the weekend. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      59  85  65  83  69 /   0  10  10  50  30
Houston (IAH)              63  84  68  82  72 /   0   0  20  60  30
Galveston (GLS)            72  82  75  82  77 /  10  10  30  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

31/42

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Oct. 17 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was sunny, mostly cool, and dry. I didn't see any rain on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. The sky looked to be completely clear with some possible barely visible cirro stratus clouds, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with some gentle to moderate gusts and some possible moderately strong and maybe really strong 20 mph gusts. It felt very cool, during the early morning. It felt cool, during the mid-morning and night. It felt a little cool, during the late morning and late evening. It felt warm with a little cool wind breeze during the afternoon and early evening. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There was also a Air Quality Alert issued for the Houston, TX area, for Oct. 18, 2017, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temperatures looked to be in the 50's with some possible 40's in some locations and the high temperatures looked to be in the 70's, for the Houston, TX area.


Houston, TX Storm Summary: I didn't see any rain on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, or hear about reports of flooding, or storm damage.


My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't see any storm, or rain producing like clouds, flooding, wet roads, puddles, wet ground, lightning, or damage. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: The day was very sunny and clear. I have not seen a clear day in awhile.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 180145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
845 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure ridging into the area from the northeast will help to
keep the area clear and cool tonight. No significant changes are
being made on the evening update. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR through period. A near calm overnight wind will wake up from
the east southeast by late morning. Still feel regional air mass is
still too dry to produce any significant Wednesday morning fog. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure ridge overhead. Should see another cool
night with temperatures falling to below normal over the inland
areas.

Next system will move into Southeast Texas over the weekend. Both
the GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement with the upper level
system moving overhead Saturday night through Sunday night. A
frontal boundary will move through the forecast area and bring
decent chances for showers and thunderstorms. Still a bit unsure
about timing and coverage -- the 12Z model runs show an indication
that better coverage will occur along and ahead of the frontal
boundary on Sunday as compared to Saturday. However, a warm front
should move northward/inland and bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Will continue to monitor the potential for strong
to severe storms over the weekend. The models continue to show a
drying trend starting on Monday. 40

MARINE...
NE winds have diminished and should transition to the east on Wed. A
ridge of high pressure to the northeast and a weak area of low
pressure near the Yucatan will maintain a long e/ese fetch across
the northern Gulf this week. Pressure gradient will tighten and
speeds will increase later in the work week. Caution flags could be
needed. Seas and tide levels will also increase and we`ll need to
keep an eye on water levels as guidance still indicates the
possibility that they`ll exceed 3.3 feet on Friday. 47

FIRE WEATHER...
RH`s bottoming out in the 25-35% range today are expected to be a
bit higher on Wed then increase significantly on Thursday through
the end of the week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      50  84  59  85  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)              53  84  63  85  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            67  82  72  84  74 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

31/42

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
453 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-181000-
Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Harris-Houston-
Liberty-Madison-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-
Washington-Wharton-
453 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Low relative humidities and dry conditions may result in elevated
fire weather concerns this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across the region on
Saturday with the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms
continuing into Sunday as a cold front moves into the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$

Air Quality Alert

TXZ213-237-238-190000-

AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
146 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...OZONE ACTION DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...

THE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ)...HAS ISSUED AN
OZONE ACTION DAY FOR THE HOUSTON...GALVESTON...AND BRAZORIA AREAS FOR
WEDNESDAY... OCTOBER 18 2017.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING
HIGH LEVELS OF OZONE POLLUTION IN THE HOUSTON...GALVESTON AND
SURROUNDING AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. YOU CAN HELP PREVENT OZONE POLLUTION BY
SHARING A RIDE...WALKING...RIDING A BICYCLE...TAKING YOUR LUNCH TO
WORK...AVOIDING DRIVE THROUGH LANES...CONSERVING ENERGY AND KEEPING YOUR
VEHICLE PROPERLY TUNED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON OZONE:

OZONE: THE FACTS (WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/AIRQUALITY/MONOPS/OZONEFACTS.HTML)
EPA AIR NOW:
(WWW.AIRNOW.GOV/INDEX.CFM?ACTION=AIRNOW.LOCAL_CITY&CITYID=236)
TAKE CARE OF TEXAS: (WWW.TAKECAREOFTEXAS.ORG/AIR/AIRQUALITY)

$$

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Oct. 16 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was cool, sunny, and dry. I didn't see any rain on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. The sky looked to be clear with maybe some alto and cirro stratus clouds, during the morning. There looked to be a group of alto stratus clouds in the sky, during the early and maybe mid-afternoon. The sky looked to be clear with maybe some cirro stratus and some possible alto stratus clouds, during the late afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts and some occasional really strong 20 mph gusts. It felt cool, almost cold, during the early morning. It felt cool, during the mid-morning, late evening, and night. It felt a little cool, during the late morning and early evening. It felt a little cool, becoming warm, during the early afternoon. It felt warm, during the mid and late afternoon. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temperatures looked to be in the 60's with maybe some 50's and the high temperatures looked to be in the 70's, for the Houston, TX area.


Houston, TX Storm Summary: I didn't see any rain on the radar, over the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, or hear about any reports of any flooding, or damage.


My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't see any storm, or rain producing like clouds, flooding, wet roads, puddles, wet ground, lightning, or damage. I just saw lots of leaves falling from trees, but nothing else, not even any sticks, or tree branches. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: It was the first day of the fall season that I have experienced a pretty much cool day. Except for the mid and late afternoon hours.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 170110
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
810 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Temperatures away from the coast have fallen into the 60s, with a
few spots already in the 50s this evening. With dewpoints in the
40s to around 50 degrees and more established cool air beneath
high pressure, we`re on track to see cooler temperatures tonight
than last night. Points far inland should fall into the 40s for
lows, with only the immediate coastline looking to stay near or a
touch above 60 degrees. The forecast seems pretty well in line
with observations, needing only some cosmetic tweaks to best match
recent trends. Though some cities on the coast are still seeing
winds of 5-10 mph, lighter winds are established across the rest
of the area - we will not see a repeat of last night`s
breeziness.

Luchs

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR and SKC with weakening winds overnight. Lighter winds tomorrow.
42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure will bring an unseasonably cool airmass to Southeast
Texas over the next couple of days. Coolest temperatures are
expected later tonight and Tuesday morning with low temperatures
falling into the 40s and 50s. Slightly warmer conditions are
expected Tuesday night/Wednesday morning; although, will not be
surprised if some locations have temperatures to fall to tonight`s
levels.

An upper level shortwave ridge will move across the area on
Wednesday as the surface ridge pushes off to the northeast. This
will help easterly winds to begin returning Gulf moisture to the
area, slowly on Wednesday and then in earnest by Thursday.

The longer range global models have some differences for the
upcoming system over the upcoming weekend. A consensus has rain
chances returning Wednesday night and Thursday as the upper level
shortwave trough move into the state from the west. Both the ECWMF
and GFS are starting to come together for Saturday and Sunday but
am not confident enough to go higher than 30 to 40 percent POPS.
If confidence increases and model consensus comes together better
later tonight and tomorrow, will probably see rain chances
increase. Model blends show a decent likelihood for a frontal
boundary to end rain chances Sunday night and Monday.

40

MARINE...
Offshore winds over the bays have decreased this afternoon but are
still going strong across the Gulf waters. Have extended the Small
Craft Advisory for the the coastal waters through this evening. We
should be seeing a more light to moderate N/NE flow overnight/Tues
as high pressure builds in from the Plains. Winds will be shifting
to the east by Wed as the high moves off to the east. Onshore flow
is progged to be in place by Fri. 41

FIRE WEATHER...
A bit more drier air has managed to mix down this afternoon on the
heels of the strong/fairly deep northerly flow in the wake of last
nights front. Locations generally south of I-10/west if I-45 could
see a brief period of Elevated Fire Conditions the rest of this af-
ternoon. These lower RH values(25-30%) are possible again tomorrow
afternoon for the same areas, but winds should be lighter. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      48  81  50  85  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              53  80  55  84  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)            62  79  68  82  73 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
421 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-170930-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
421 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Breezy to windy conditions will persist near the Upper Texas
coast today, decreasing by this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$

Sunday, October 15, 2017

Oct. 15 17

Near Katy, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Near, or maybe in Katy, TX, during the late afternoon.
Katy, TX, during the early evening.

Cypress, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was very warm, mostly sunny, and dry. There looked to be some isolated light to maybe moderate showers in and around the northern and southern areas of Houston, TX, during the afternoon, evening, and maybe night. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. Cirro and alto stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, during the morning. Alto stratus with maybe some stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with maybe some gentle to moderate gusts and some occasional moderately strong to maybe really strong gusts, during the morning and afternoon. The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts and some occasional really strong 20 mph gusts, during the evening and maybe night. It felt warm, during the early morning. It felt very warm, during the mid-morning. It felt very warm, almost hot, during the late morning. It felt hot, during the afternoon. It started to feel warm, during the early evening. It felt a little cool, during the late evening and early night. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and 60's and the high temps looked to be in the 80's and 90's, for the Houston, TX area.


Houston, TX Storm Summary: There looked to be some isolated light to maybe moderate showers in and around the northern and southern areas of Houston, TX, during the afternoon, evening, and maybe night. I didn't hear, or see any reports of any flooding, or damage.


My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I saw some dark alto stratus and some possible stratus clouds that looked to be rain producing clouds, during the mid and late afternoon and evening. I didn't see any rain drops from them. I didn't see any flooding, wet roads, puddles, wet ground, lightning, or damage. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX, Cypress, TX, and Katy, TX.


Thoughts: The Houston, TX area received some almost record breaking temperatures today! The last hot day, before the cool front passes through and brings temperatures closer to normal for fall.


 Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 160038
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
738 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Radar shows that the cold front has just cleared the coast, with
dewpoints beginning to drop across the area. Though the vast
majority have been dry and will continue to do so, some showers
have popped up near the front just east of our area in Jefferson
and Orange counties, and the slightest of chances for a brief
shower exists over coastal Chambers County this evening.

Up north, College Station and a few other sites already have a
dewpoint at or below 50 degrees as cooler and drier air begins to
filter in. Some breezy north winds are also setting up across the
area this evening. Sustained winds are generally in the 10-15 mph
range, with numerous reported gusts as high as 25 mph or so.

While starting to approach the threshold for a wind advisory,
think winds will stay just underneath, and will hold off on any
headlines. These winds should largely continue through the night,
beginning to slowly subside towards morning. The wind situation is
a little different over the waters, so reference the Marine
section below if planning to do any boating.

Have had to adjust temps slightly in the next few hours, as things
got a bit warmer right on the coast, and have had to adjust their
cooling both as the front has passed and normal nighttime cooling.

Luchs

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/

AVIATION...
Only TAF site left for the cold front to move through is GLS, and that
will happen in the next 30-45 minutes with gusty north developing in
its wake. Satellite and surface obs show some cloud decks behind the
front (right now MAINLY in the UTS and CXO areas) that we`ll probably
be dealing with this evening and maybe into parts of the overnight
hours. Other than that, will be carrying gusty north winds tonight
and for most of the day tomorrow with the higher values near the coast.
Winds are expected to be weakening beginning tomorrow afternoon up north.
42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The dry cold front was passing across the Houston Metro at 3 PM with
some heavy cloud cover thinning out, which allowed high temps ahead
of the front to reach the 90s. Winds will pick up behind the front as
high pressure builds in from the northwest. The evening shift will
further monitor wind speed trends to see if a wind advisory is
warranted along the immediate coast. Weather behind the cold front
will be very pleasant, with high temperatures in the mid to upper
70s, lows in the 40s and 50s, clear skies, and dew points in the 40s.

A shortwave trough passes over the Ozarks on Tuesday night. This
will cause surface winds to become more easterly, which will bring
dew points back to the 50s and 60s and high temperatures in the low
80s through Friday. Then, a shortwave upper level ridge tracking
into the area on Thursday, in addition to the surface high pressure,
will help keep us dry through Friday.

On Friday, winds will be more persistent with onshore flow. Both the
ECMWF and GFS show good surface convergence along the coast, so
chances for precipitation are raised along the coast Friday afternoon
through Saturday.

The forecast becomes much more complex beginning Sunday with a large
amount of divergence in the model solutions between the GFS and Euro.
GFS shows a surface low pressure moving into the area from the Gulf,
while the Euro shows a cutoff low aloft sitting over the area for
several days starting next Sunday. Needless to say, widespread rain
chances were added, and this is a time period we will be monitoring
closely in the coming days.

22

MARINE...
The cold front will reach the coast near Matagorda Bay late this
afternoon and will push off the upper coast early this evening.
Small craft advisories are in effect this evening with 20 to 25 knot
winds expected and seas building to around 8 feet well offshore
overnight. Well offshore the advisory will continue into Monday
afternoon. Behind the front tides will fall to below normal late
tonight and early Monday.

Seas will subside by Tuesday with easterly winds expected by
Wednesday.  The pressure gradient will gradually tighten with wind
speeds increasing Wednesday night and Thursday. A long easterly fetch
will set up across the Gulf of Mexico Thursday, and will remain in
place through the weekend. Seas will reach at least 5 feet by
Thursday afternoon. Therefore, elevated seas and tides will be
possible late this week.

33

CLIMATE...
Several records were preliminarily tied or surpassed today:
City of Houston - High record of 92 set in 2015 was tied today
Houston Hobby - High record of 92 set in 2015 was tied today
Galveston - High record of 88 set in 2007 was beat today with a new
high of 90

Today also marks a new latest 90+ degree day for Galveston. The
latest 90+ degree day for the City of Houston is October 29th, set
back in 1991. For Houston Hobby, the latest 90+ degree day is
November 3rd, set back in 1973. College Station`s latest 90+ degree
day is November 16th, set in 1921.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      54  77  48  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              61  77  55  78  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            68  77  63  77  67 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Monday for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Monday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
357 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-160900-
Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Harris-Houston-
Liberty-Madison-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-
Washington-Wharton-
357 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Patchy fog will result in visibilities falling to or below one
mile at times this morning. Motorists are urged to use caution on
area roadways. Fog is expected to lift after sunrise.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$