Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
West Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Near, or maybe in Cypress, TX, during the late evening.
Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX, and Cypress, TX.
Thoughts: The day was warm, mostly cloudy, and windy, I think, with maybe some drizzle.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 200518 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1118 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 .AVIATION... A mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings and fcst soundings support MVFR ceilings for the rest of the night. HRRR and other short term guidance support IFR ceilings but this appears to be slightly overdone as IFR cigs were supposed to develop between 00-02z and that has failed to materialize. Strong winds at and just off the surface will likely keep cigs around 1500 feet. Winds won`t fully decouple and gusty winds will likely persist for much of the night. The winds will likely create enough mixing to limit the fog threat for everywhere except the immediate coast. Sea fog has been slow to develop despite short term guidance suggesting the fog will return. Water temps are up to 62 degrees and dew pts are in the upper 60s so would expect some fog overnight but winds/mixing might mitigate the threat. Fcst soundings look unstable tomorrow aftn over the northern TAF sites with PW values approaching 1.80 inches. Will carry prevailing thunder for Tuesday afternoon at both KCLL and KUTS based primarily on the Hi Res ARW and the GFS. Further south, will carry a VCSH in the afternoon as PWs climb to around 1.55 inches but soundings look a bit more stable. KIAH is on the cusp between TSRA and SHRA but leaned toward showers at this time. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/ UPDATE... The KGRK VAD wind profiler shows a 35-45 knot low level jet has developed across Central Texas this evening, feeding Gulf moisture into the eastern half of Texas. Small disturbances translating across Texas in the southwest flow aloft will continue to result in the development of showers and a few thunderstorms north of an Edna to Cleveland line overnight, consistent with where SPC Mesoanalysis has identified the steepest mid-level lapse rates. Evening infrared imagery is already showing some convective enhancement for activity translating across the Rio Grande out of Mexico. The main update for this forecast was to pull rain chances farther north for the aforementioned trends and increase overnight low temperatures where cloud cover and elevated southerly winds will keep overnight lows in the mid 60s to near 70. Preliminary inspection of the 00Z guidance continues to indicate the potential for heavy rain across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods areas tomorrow night. Continuing to monitor for the potential for training showers and thunderstorms across this area as a frontal boundary approaches the region late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning with fairly unidirectional wind profiles in place. Have noticed some difference in forecast rain amounts during this time however, likely due to the presence of some lower level capping (NAM BUFR provides a more southwest low level flow and has more capping/lower rain totals and the GFS BUFR has a more southerly flow and less capping/higher rain totals). With southwest flow aloft becoming more amplified during the day tomorrow with the approach of an upper trough over the Great Basin now, inclined to think low level winds will back and a more southerly low level flow (and higher rain totals) will prevail but will wait for the remainder of 00Z guidance to come in before making any changes to the ongoing forecast. Huffman && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 78 64 70 53 / 20 60 80 80 80 Houston (IAH) 68 79 67 78 62 / 10 50 60 80 70 Galveston (GLS) 66 73 66 73 64 / 10 30 50 70 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Tuesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...14 Aviation/Marine...43