Saturday, May 27, 2017

May. 26 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.


Summary: The day was warm, mostly dry, and mostly cloudy. Some light to moderate drizzle during the morning and a few sprinkles during the early evening, or maybe sometime during the afternoon. I don't know if any other areas of Houston, TX saw any drizzle, or rain. I don't remember seeing any precip on the Houston, TX radar. The sky changed from cloudy to mostly cloudy throughout the day, from morning, thru the night. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts and some really strong gusts during the morning and maybe afternoon, evening, and night. I think the wind speeds became calm with only some moderate to moderately strong wind gusts during the afternoon, evening, and night. It felt warm during the morning, evening, and night. It felt really warm during the afternoon. There was a hazardous weather statement issued for the Houston, TX area, for Sunday thru Thursday. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: It looks like Houston, TX is going to be getting some active weather next week! I am looking forward to it.


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 270253
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
953 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Only a few minor tweaks were made to the previous forecast to
account for current obs. Otherwise, the previous forecast appears
to be on track.  11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

AVIATION...
Look for MVFR ceilings to develop this evening and persist overnight
with south winds around 10 knots. Ceilings will lift tomorrow morning,
but not expecting VFR levels to be reached areawide until the late
morning through early afternoon hours. South winds will increase during
the day with gusts >20 knots at some spots. Lowering cloud decks will
then develop after sunset and persist until Sunday morning. Sunday`s
south winds will be weaker than what the area will be seeing on Saturday.
Look for increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage as we head on
into Sunday night and Monday morning.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Despite the extensive afternoon cloud cover many regional temperatures
have again reached the lower 90s. Higher humidities/dew point temperatures
have equated to upper 90 F heat indices at this hour. Winds remaining
around 5-10 mph and skies becoming overcast through the overnight
hours signals there is a good chance that there may be some high minimum
temperature records that will be threatened...many are forecast to
fall to within a degree or two of high minT records in the upper 70s
to 80 F along the coast. Upper ridging planted across region
pretty much guarantees that the majority of this holiday weekend
will be dry...very low rain chances albeit mostly cloudy very warm
and muggy with 98 F - 105 F heat indices during the mid to late
afternoon. Ridging begins to break down late Sunday and this will
mark the beginning of a very unsettled weather pattern that may
persist through a good portion of next week.

NWP suite continues to forecast periods of showers and thunderstorms
from late Sunday through Thursday. A series of shortwave trough passages
early in the week will be the trigger for Memorial Day convection.
A slow moving frontal boundary will reach the CWA Monday morning...
providing better lower level focus within a greater than 1.7 inch
pwat air mass for storm clusters to move upon. The main threat on
Memorial Day will be localized heavy rainfall that will produce
flooding. As of now the best focus and higher moisture will reside
along and south of I-10...thus slightly higher convective chances
will be over the southern third of the forecast area from Memorial
Day through mid week. Upper level forcing may be there on Monday
as eastern Texas may fall under a RRQ of a Ohio Valley-centered
jet. A developing coastal surface trough with a possible movement
of a warm frontal boundary (or a hybrid-looking system per the
GEM) will increase the potential for more early week southern
county tornadic activity. Inverted V soundings on Tuesday and
Wednesday also support damaging storm winds. Other than tornadic
activity...the other marginal threat will be hail as more saturated
warm columns/relatively high wet-bulb zero heights do not lean
towards a significant hail threat. Quite frankly...the pattern
going into early June looks very muddled. All progs maintain QPF
in their mass fields with no mentionable driver (e..g, s/w
passage, ll boundary) so the term `unsettled` seems to best fit
this Memorial Day. As if usually the case...any Memorial Day
action will determining Tuesday-Friday`s forecast as it will
likely be all meso-driven past Monday anyway. 31

MARINE...
Moderate onshore winds will persist through Saturday night and a
SCEC will remain in effect for the offshore waters tonight. A weak
cold front will move into SE TX late Sunday night and stall near the
coast early Monday. WInds will begin to relax in advance of this
feature Sunday. The frontal boundary gets diffuse and will likely be
driven by mesoscale rain events Monday possibly pushing an outflow
into nearshore waters Monday or Monday night. Showers and thunderstorm
chances will increase Sunday and Monday across the coastal waters.
Mariners should prepare for possibly some strong storms on Monday
with brief gusty winds. Onshore winds return Tuesday and will
remain onshore through the end of the week.

There are several other beach hazards to remain alert for this
holiday weekend. The strong onshore winds has produced elevated
tides and some minor flooding at high tide will be possible along
the Bolivar peninsula. The strong onshore winds will also foster
strong rip currents. If heading to the beaches, swim near life
guards and stay away from jetties and piers. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      76  94  76  90  70 /  10  10  20  30  60
Houston (IAH)              78  93  78  90  74 /  10  10  10  30  70
Galveston (GLS)            80  87  80  85  76 /  10  10  10  20  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CDT Saturday for
     the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...11


Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
430 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-270930-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
430 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat index values may reach 100 degrees west of Interstate 45
today. Southeast Texans should drink plenty of water and take
frequent breaks if participating in outdoor activities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Heat index values may peak in the 100-105 degree range on Saturday
afternoon. Southeast Texans should drink plenty of water and take
frequent breaks if participating in outdoor activities.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Sunday night through Thursday. Some of these may be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

$$

Thursday, May 25, 2017

May. 25 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was sunny, dry, and windy. Maybe some rain. There looked to be some isolated light to moderate showers in and around the Houston, TX area, on the radar, during the night. Wavy stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky for most of the day. The sky looked to be cloudy, then clear, or maybe mostly clear, during the night. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts with some really strong gusts. It felt a little cool during the early morning, warm during the mid and late morning, evening, and night. It felt very warm, during the afternoon. There were no watches, warnings, advisories, alerts, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps were in the 60's and the high temps were in the 80's and low 90's, for the Houston, TX area.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Another pleasant feeling, sunny day.

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

May. 24 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Cypress, TX, I think, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was warm, sunny, and dry.  No rain. I don't think Houston, TX got any rain. There might have been some isolated light to moderate showers in the early morning. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts with some really strong gusts. It felt cool during the early morning. A little cool during the mid-morning and night. Then it felt warm and dry during the late morning, afternoon, and evening. The sky looked to be mostly cloudy during the early morning, before sunrise. The sky stayed mostly clear with some scattered stratus clouds through the rest of the day and maybe night. I think there was an air quality alert issued for the Houston, TX area, for today, or maybe tomorrow. There were no other watches, warnings, advisories, alerts,  or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps were in the 50's and the high temps were in the 80's, for the Houston, TX area.


Locations: Northwest and Cypress, TX.


Thoughts: It felt like fall today in Houston, TX. I am not sure if Houston, TX broke, or got close to any record low temps. The dry air and sunny skies felt nice. I am looking forward to some more rain chances coming up early next week.

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

May. 23 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was warm, mostly sunny, and mostly dry. No rain until the evening and night as two lines of light to heavy showers moved quickly across the Houston, TX area during the evening and night. The wind speeds were calm with maybe some moderate to moderately strong gusts, during the morning and afternoon. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts and some really strong gusts, during the evening and night. It felt warm during the morning, evening, and early night. It may have felt a little cool during the late night, after the passing of the cold front. It felt very warm during the afternoon.
The sky started out cloudy during the early morning, then became clear to mostly clear, through the rest of the morning and early afternoon with some thick clouds appearing from time to time. Scattered stratus clouds covered the sky during the mid and late afternoon. The sky looked to be cloudy to mostly cloudy during the evening and night. There was a significant weather advisory, or maybe alert, along with some severe weather watches and warnings issued for the Houston, TX area, during the evening and maybe night. There was a hazardous weather statement issued for the Houston, TX area by NOAA. There was also a quality air alert issued for the Houston, TX area. The low temps were in the 60's and the high temps were in the 80's, for the Houston, TX area. I didn't hear about, or see any flooding, or storm damages from the showers and thunderstorms, other than a possible downed tree, near Katy, TX, I think.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX


Thoughts: I enjoyed the loud thunder and lightning, as well as the rainbow.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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781
FXUS64 KHGX 240226
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
926 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Main updates to the forecast tonight have been clearing counties
from Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259. The surface cold front and
associated thunderstorm activity continue to push off the Upper
Texas coast tonight, taking the threat for severe weather with it.
The KHGX radar is showing a secondary line of showers developing
approximately 100 miles to the north in the vicinity of the 850 MB
front. Despite a uniform wind direction at this level, there is
sufficient speed convergence along this feature (30 knot winds
flowing into 10 knot winds) to result in isolated to scattered
showers. The atmosphere as destabilized significantly since this
evening`s storms moved through and severe weather is not expected,
but cannot rule out a rumble of thunder. Otherwise, remainder of
forecast remains on track with dry conditions expected after
midnight and clearing skies allowing overnight temperatures to
fall to the mid 50s to mid 60s... much below normal for this time
in May.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

AVIATION...
Storms occurring ahead of the cold front will be moving across the
terminals from 00Z at KUTS to about 04-05Z at KGLS. A strong
thunderstorm should be east of KCLL by 00Z; however, more showers
were developing to the west of the site. There is a slight
possibility of a strong or severe storm with gusts in excess of
50 knots and large hail making its way through the sites between
KCXO and KHOU between 00Z and 02Z.

Expect the storms to be off the coast by 06Z. VFR conditions are
then expected. Breezy winds are expected to then develop after 15Z
Wednesday.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis as of 1 PM CDT showed an approaching cold front
stretching from Del Rio to Waco towards Shreveport, with a weak
prefrontal wind shift entering portions of the Brazos Valley.
Regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows a few cells developing
along and behind the front as it continues to push towards the
southeast. With RAP guidance instability increasing ahead of the
approaching boundary and lift overspreading the region from a
passing 90 knot upper jet, expect the severe weather threat to
increase over the next few hours for Southeast Texas as scattered
thunderstorms continue to develop along the front. Expect the
front to clear the Brazos Valley late this afternoon, reaching the
Houston metro mid-evening, and clearing the coast around midnight
tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates will result in a large hail
and damaging wind threat (especially if any storms bow out) as the
front progresses southward.

A few showers may linger behind the front tonight before
dissipating as drier air moves into the region, with clearing
clouds and cold air advection behind the front resulting in
cool overnight low temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Dry
weather will continue through the rest of the week with high
temperatures gradually warming into into the low 90s by Friday as
shortwave ridging translates across the region. Northerly winds
will gradually swing around to the south by Thursday as surface
high pressure slides off to the east, allowing moisture to
gradually return by the beginning of the weekend. A cold front
looks to slide into Texas by the beginning of the weekend and
stall at the beginning of next week as an upper low reaches the
Great Lakes. Will have to keep an eye on the Monday/Tuesday
portion of the forecast next week as disturbances overriding this
stalled boundary look to result in a very wet period for the
region.

Huffman

AVIATION...
A cold front will push off the coast tonight with strengthening
northerly winds and building seas in its wake (some thunderstorms
developing along and ahead of the front could become strong or
severe as they move off the coast this evening). Onshore winds
will return early Thursday and quickly strengthen during the day.
Elevated winds and seas can be expected from the end of the week
on through the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. Caution flags will
probably be needed, and advisories will be possible. 42

CLIMATE...
Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be well-below normal for
late May and observations across parts of the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods regions may approach or reach record low temperatures
for May 24. A listing of record low temperatures for May 24 for
the first order climate sites are provided below.

LOCATION                RECORD LOW       YEAR
City of Houston             54           1892
Houston Hobby               57           1940
College Station             55           1913
Galveston                   62           1940

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      56  82  60  90  73 /  50  10   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)              59  83  64  89  74 /  60  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            63  81  73  84  79 /  60  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Wednesday morning
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
455 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-242200-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
455 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible tonight along and ahead
of a cold front. Some of these storms may be strong to severe and
capable of producing gusty winds and large hail. Brief heavy
downpours will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be needed tonight.

$$

Air Quality Alert

TXZ213-237-238-242200-

AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
113 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

...OZONE ACTION DAY WEDNESDAY...

THE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ)...HAS ISSUED AN
OZONE ACTION DAY FOR THE HOUSTON...GALVESTON...AND BRAZORIA AREAS FOR
WEDNESDAY MAY 24 2017.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING
HIGH LEVELS OF OZONE POLLUTION IN THE HOUSTON...GALVESTON AND
SURROUNDING AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. YOU CAN HELP PREVENT OZONE POLLUTION BY
SHARING A RIDE...WALKING...RIDING A BICYCLE...TAKING YOUR LUNCH TO
WORK...AVOIDING DRIVE THROUGH LANES...CONSERVING ENERGY AND KEEPING YOUR
VEHICLE PROPERLY TUNED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON OZONE:

OZONE: THE FACTS (WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/AIRQUALITY/MONOPS/OZONEFACTS.HTML)
EPA AIR NOW:
(WWW.AIRNOW.GOV/INDEX.CFM?ACTION=AIRNOW.LOCAL_CITY&CITYID=236)
TAKE CARE OF TEXAS: (WWW.TAKECAREOFTEXAS.ORG/AIR/AIRQUALITY)

$$

Monday, May 22, 2017

May. 22 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.


Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.


video
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.


Summary: The day was warm, wet, and cloudy. Another day of light to heavy showers and thunderstorms were scattered across the Houston, TX area from the morning, through the evening and maybe night. The sky stayed cloudy with maybe a few small breaks in the clouds. The wind speeds were calm with maybe some moderate to moderately strong wind gusts. There was a flash flood watch and advisory for the Houston, TX area during the morning and early afternoon. There was also a hazardous weather statement issued by NOAA for the Houston, TX area. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps were either in the 60's, or 70's and the high temps were probably in the 80's with maybe a few 70's, for the Houston, TX area. It felt warm during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. I didn't hear about, or witness any flooding, just wet roads and a few small to medium sized puddles.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX


Thoughts: I am enjoying the rain.



Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
643 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-231145-
Brazoria-Chambers-Fort Bend-Galveston-Harris-Jackson-Liberty-
Matagorda-Wharton-
643 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

...Flash Flood Watch is in effect...

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area today. On
average 1 to 3 inch amounts are expected. While most of this rain
will be beneficial, a surface boundary meandering about the
region may focus some localized high rainfall
accumulations...perhaps up to or above 5 inches which would cause
flash flooding. There is considerable uncertainty as to where this
boundary will end up, but indications are that it may be closer
to the coast. Strong winds and small hail are possible in the
stronger storms. Isolated tornadoes cannot completely be ruled out
closer to the coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Another chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected Tuesday
afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. These should be
fairly quick moving, so widespread flood concern will be low.
Otherwise hazardous weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to relay rainfall reports or any reports
of severe weather or flooding.

$$

Sunday, May 21, 2017

May. 21 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Katy, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Katy, TX, during the late afternoon.
Katy, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was mostly cloudy, warm, and wet. Scattered to isolated light to heavy showers and thunderstorms passed through the Houston, TX area, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The sky stayed cloudy to mostly cloudy from the morning, through the night. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong wind gusts with maybe some really strong gusts. It felt hot at my house in northwest Houston, TX, during the late morning and early afternoon. It felt warm during the early and mid-morning, mid and late afternoon, evening, and night. There was a tornado warning issued for Brookshire, TX, from a reported tornado, or maybe a possible tornado, or funnel cloud; a city around 25 miles west of Houston, TX, near Katy, TX. There was also a hazardous weather statement issued by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, weather statements, or advisories issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's with maybe some 60's and the high temps looked to be in the 80's, for the Houston, TX area. I didn't hear about any storm damage, or flooding. I didn't hear about any damages from the possible tornado that passed through the Brookshire, TX area.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX, Cypress, TX, and Katy, TX.


Thoughts: Well I finally got to see some rain. I also got to enjoy a good sweat and swim during the early afternoon, before the rain hit.



Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
419 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-222130-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
419 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
tonight. Some may be capable of locally heavy rainfall, especially
near any stalled boundaries located across the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue Monday and
Tuesday, with some of this activity capable of locally heavy
rainfall. Rain chances are expected to end late Tuesday into
Wednesday behind a cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to relay rainfall reports or any reports
of flooding.

$$

Saturday, May 20, 2017

May. 20 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
North Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, I think, during the mid-afternoon.
West Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was cloudy, warm, and dry. There were some isolated to scattered showers in and around the Houston, TX area, mostly west of and North of the Houston, TX, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. I didn't feel, see, or hear any rain drops. The sky was mostly cloudy in the morning and then became cloudy during the afternoon and stayed cloudy through the night. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts with maybe some really strong gusts. There was a hazardous weather statement issued by NOAA for the Houston, TX area. There were no other watches, warnings, weather statements, advisories, or alerts issued for the Houston, TX area. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the high temps looked to stay in the 80's, for the Houston, TX area.


Locations: Northwest, north, and west Houston, TX.


Thoughts: The rain is almost here. Hopefully I will get to see some rain tomorrow (Sunday) or early next week.


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 210304
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1004 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.UPDATE...
One more item of concern regarding tonight`s forecast. Have
noticed the scattered areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing north of the surface boundary. At 10:00 PM the
boundary was located from near Bellville to Tomball to Cleveland.
Areas to the north of this boundary could see an increase in
rainfall coverage during the night as the upper level shortwave
troughs move overhead. Don`t expect locally heavy rainfall but
some isolated areas earlier this evening did receive 2 to 3
inches in Trinity, Polk, San Jacinto, and Montgomery counties.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

UPDATE...
Still have isolated strong storms over eastern Houston County at
9:00 PM. However, the threat of strong and severe storms is small
with the loss of daytime heating.

The latest water vapor showed a series of upper level shortwave
troughs will affect Southeast Texas through the remainder of
tonight and into Sunday. The 00Z soundings at LCH, CRP, and SHV
all showed the potential for thunderstorms. Of some concern were
the very light and variable winds from 850 to 700 mb in the LCH
wind profile. This was reflected in the rather slow movement of
the storms that occurred earlier between Conroe, Livingston, and
the Groveton area.

The current forecast is on track and no major changes are planned
at this time. Only made minor tweaks to this evening for
temperature and humidity related items.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

AVIATION...
CXO getting the brunt of the action currently, with thunderstorms
directly over the terminal. Reports of golf ball size hail has
been associated with some thunderstorms so far this evening. Some
of the outflow from the storm over CXO is beginning to move
northward, resulting in vicinity thunderstorms for UTS. Short term
guidance continues showers and thunderstorms associated with the
cold front which should push through SE TX this evening into
tomorrow morning. Wind will shift behind the front will result in
winds out of the ENE below 10 knots. Low confidence for fog in
the early morning hours, though did account for haze at GLS around
09Z, based off what guidance is indicating as well as
persistence.

Hathaway

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Challenging forecast conditions will exist across Southeast Texas
over the next few days as an upper level storm system over
Nebraska this afternoon lifts towards the Great Lakes. West-
southwest flow aloft in response to this feature will allow for a
series of disturbances to lift across the region, triggering
periods of showers and thunderstorms now through Tuesday.
Afternoon water vapor imagery showed the first of these
disturbances was located over the Big Bend region of Texas, with
another disturbance located farther upstream near Baja California.

Thunderstorm activity across Southeast Texas so far this afternoon
has remained relatively minimal (owing to cloud debris from
ongoing storms west of San Antonio and warm mid-level temperatures
inhibiting updraft development). Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible along a remnant outflow
boundary snaking from near Brenham to Huntsville to near Lufkin
through sunset, especially as it is overtaken by an approaching
cold front later this afternoon. With mid-level flow becoming
increasingly parallel to the orientation of the frontal boundary
this evening in response to the approach of the Big Bend
shortwave, anticipate the frontal boundary to stall somewhere near
or north of Interstate 10. Lift from the passing shortwave should
result in another round of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms overnight. Have concerns that some of this activity
may be capable of isolated amounts in excess of 2 to 4 inches
along this boundary, especially with RAP, NAM12, and GFS low
level winds consistently underestimating the strength of the
current low level wind profile... and dramatically decreasing
those winds overnight... raising concerns that there may be a bit
of a low level jet in play (15-20 knots) and more moisture
advection than the models are currently advertising. Have low
confidence in where these higher rain totals would occur as they
are highly dependent on the location of the frontal boundary and
this low confidence is further compounded by poor initialization
of high resolution guidance in terms of the boundary`s current
location. Regardless, the potential exists for locally heavy rain
to lead to isolated instances of minor or flash flooding tonight
should a cell become anchored to the boundary. The one saving
grace will be how dry it has been recently, with one hour flash
flood guidance ranging from 2.5-4 inches.

The passage of the shortwave trough tomorrow morning should push
the front to the coast, before it lifts back north during the day
as the shortwave near Baja California approaches. Diurnal heating
should result in another round of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms along the frontal boundary as it lifts back
north during the day, with stronger storms capable of locally
heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail with mid-level lapse rates
6.5 to 7.5 C/km overspreading the region from the west during the
day. Otherwise, expect highs in the low to mid 80s.

With the arrival of the shortwave trough from Baja California and
the upper trough axis associated with the upper low over the Great
Lakes, late Sunday to early Tuesday will be a time period to
monitor for widespread showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy
rainfall as the stalled frontal boundary remains in the region.
Model guidance remain inconsistent in their solutions on which
areas will receive the heaviest rain, but are consistent in
precipitable water values climbing to 2-2.2 inches by Monday
morning and forecast soundings showing a saturated profile through
at least 500 MB during the day Monday. As a result, all of
Southeast Texas may have a concern for at least locally heavy
rainfall. As mentioned before, dry antecedent conditions will help
mitigate against any flooding threat in several areas... but
rainfall tonight and tomorrow will help precondition some areas
for flooding during this early week timeframe.

A cold front will be sent across the region late Tuesday into
Wednesday as the upper trough axis swings across the region, with
dry north to northwest flow aloft in the wake of the front
resulting in mostly dry weather Wednesday into the upcoming
holiday weekend. High temperatures behind the front are expected
to be in the upper 70s to low 80s, but will gradually warm into
the upper 80s to near 90 this weekend as upper ridging builds into
the region from the west.

Huffman

MARINE...
Mainly light to moderate east to southeast winds are expected to
persist through Monday night. Look for periods of showers and
thunderstorms until a cold front moves off the coast on Tuesday.
Caution flags might be needed Tuesday night through Wednesday due
to increasing north winds and building seas. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      68  84  68  77  65 /  40  30  50  80  50
Houston (IAH)              73  86  72  79  68 /  40  40  50  80  60
Galveston (GLS)            77  84  76  80  73 /  20  40  50  80  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
404 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-212115-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
404 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall will be possible this afternoon and tonight generally
north of Interstate 10. Isolated amounts in excess of 2-4 inches
may be possible. Additionally, stronger thunderstorms this
afternoon may be capable of gusty winds and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday
Periods of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday through Thursday across
Southeast Texas. Some of this rainfall may be able to cause minor
or flash flooding Monday and Tuesday. Some of these thunderstorms
may also be capable of gusty winds or hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

$$

Friday, May 19, 2017

May. 19 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Southwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Near Central Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
West Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was warm, mostly cloudy, and sunny. I saw some sprinkles during the afternoon. There might have been some isolated light showers in and around the Houston, TX area. The clouds looked like they wanted to form rain, but were unable to. It felt warm during the morning, late evening, and night. It felt very warm, maybe hot, during the afternoon. It felt very warm during the early evening. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts with some really strong gusts. The sky stayed mostly cloudy from the morning, through the evening and maybe night. There were no watches, warnings, alerts, weather statements, or advisories issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to have stayed in the 70's and the high temps were in the high 80's with maybe some locations getting into the 90's, for the Houston, TX area.


Locations: Northwest, west, central, and southwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Almost some rain for the Houston, TX area, but not yet.

Thursday, May 18, 2017

May. 18 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was hot, mostly cloudy, and dry. Some drizzle, or light rain in the early morning. I saw some isolated light to moderate showers on the Houston, TX radar during the morning and afternoon. The sky started out cloudy during the early morning and then became mostly cloudy during the mid-morning and stayed mostly cloudy through the early night and maybe late night. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts and some really strong gusts. There were no watches, warnings, advisories, weather statements, or alerts issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. I think the low temps stayed in the 70's and the high temps were in the 80's with maybe some low 90's, for the Houston, TX area. It felt warm during the morning, evening, and night. It felt hot during the afternoon.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Today is the first day of Houston's Spring/summer season that I felt like it was hot. 

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

May. 17 17

West Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early night.


Summary: The day was warm, dry, and cloudy. The sky stayed mostly cloudy to cloudy during the morning and then became cloudy during the afternoon and stayed cloudy through the night. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts with some really strong gusts. No rain. There were some areas in and around the Houston, TX area that looked to have gotten some light showers. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. There were no watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. I think the low temps were in the 70's and the high temps were in the 80's with maybe some 90's, for the Houston, TX area. There was a 10 to 30 percent chance for rain, especially during the night, for the Houston, TX area.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX, Cypress, TX.


Thoughts: The clouds made it look like it was going to rain today.


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 180156
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
856 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Another very warm night is expected across SE TX as clouds help
insulate and winds provide mixing. It won`t be as windy as last
night but winds are not expected to decouple overnight. A weak
disturbance over South Texas will scoot up the coast later tonight
and early Thursday. This feature will likely generate a few
showers late tonight into early Thursday. The region remains
capped so only a few light showers are anticipated. Some drying is
expected in the wake of the disturbance Thursday afternoon.
Tweaked sky grids and overnight PoPs but the rest of the forecast
looks on track.

Looking ahead to the weekend, another disturbance will bring
scattered showers on Saturday. It does not look like a wash out
but most areas will get a little rain. Better rain chances will
occur on Sunday as a cold front crosses SE TX. Favorable jet
dynamics, coupled with PW values near 1.90 inches and low level
sfc convergence along the boundary should give the area some much
needed rainfall. Although current models not showing heavy
rainfall at this time, a front with jet dynamics this time of
year is one to watch closely.

Galveston tied a record high today and may set a record warm
minimum if the temp doesn`t fall below 79. Winds and clouds will
probably keep temps at or above 79 through 06z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017/

AVIATION...
A few areas of light rain will be possible through mid evening
mainly north and west of metro Houston; although, there is an
outside chance of very light rain elsewhere. By mid evening, only
expect the rain chances to continue generally over KCLL and KUTS
through the night as a weak surface boundary nudges northwestward
of both sites. The SREF ceiling height probabilities indicate a
slight chance for IFR conditions to develop later tonight but
mainly west of the sites. MVFR conditions are expected to develop
between mainly between 03Z and 06Z at those sites which start out
at VFR. On Thursday the winds will pick up after mid morning as
the ceilings lift to VFR between 15Z and 18Z.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Relatively nice weather is expected for the rest of the work week,
though onshore flow and increasing moisture will leave potential for
some isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm. The weekend and next
week look to be less pleasant as a cold front slowly sags into the
area and may or may not make it out alive - the result is a bit of a
muddled forecast as uncertainty fuzzes out rain chances for much of
the first half of next week. Severe weather does not look very
likely at this time, but some locally heavy rain could be a
potential issue to watch for if certain ingredients do indeed come
together just right.

Through Friday...
Upper and surface low that fueled yesterday`s severe weather in
Oklahoma is ejecting towards the Western Great Lakes region, while a
strong upper jet pushing across the Pacific Coast will help build
the next upper low right down into its place in the coming days. In
the meantime, a streak in the subtropical jet will sag down over
Southeast Texas before washing out. That diffluence aloft along with
increasing column moisture and moderate instability means there`s
some potential for convection. However, forecast soundings show it
may be difficult to beat the cap, so I keep PoPs light for now. If
the cap ends up being a bit weaker or we get a bit warmer, they may
have to go up - but given the relatively weak deep layer shear,
even then expect any convection would be quick and pulsy.

Winds today have been a bit breezy, and that is expected to continue
at similar levels tomorrow and Friday as the new upper low should
support a new surface low to keep the pressure gradient tight. But
since we`ve been able to allow the wind advisory from last night to
expire, we should (key word - should) be able to escape without
further advisories. For the waters, see the marine section below.

The weekend and early next week...
As we now have an upper low ejecting northeastward into the Upper
Midwest, the next low should do similarly this weekend. As the
surface low shoots up into Wisconsin, look for the trailing cold
front to drag into our area this weekend. Early on, it should have a
little more vigorous, allowing for higher PoPs Saturday night into
Sunday. From there, however, the front loses steam as its surface
low and upper support get farther and farther away. From here, model
divergence really comes into the picture. The Euro is a bit faster
with a secondary front, which is able to push a boundary through the
entire area by Tuesday morning. As a result, it splatters potential
for rain through the weekend and through the first half of the week.
The GFS is a bit slower with things, and allows for a bit of a dry
period early next week between boundaries. As you might expect, the
GFS ensemble has a wide range of solutions for the first half of
next week, and so a blend seemed the natural way to go to start next
week. As things become more clear in the coming days, expectation is
that we`ll be able to demarcate periods for rain and drier weather a
bit more specifically, but for now there`s too much uncertainty in a
muddled forecast.

What does look a bit more certain is that any front will lack much
of a push of cold, dry air behind it (hence the uncertainty on its
behavior). As a result, only look for humidity to take a mild cut,
and even that may take until the middle of next week to really
become apparent. Temperatures will also fall only a little bit, but
shouldn`t fall much below normal (if at all).

Luchs

MARINE...
Winds dropped below 15 knots and have remained so but expect after
sunset that winds will edge up a few knots. Seas though have been
slower to come down and have an SCA still in effect for the 20-60nm
waters til 3 am or so. Gradient will support winds bouncing around
between 10-15 and 15-20 knots through Friday night...stronger winds
probably overnight hours. Seas should remain locked into the 3-5
nearshore and 4-7 offshore. A front should finally come off the
coast (assuming the models don`t flip/flop more) ushering in
stronger winds Monday night/Tuesday morning.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      74  90  74  90  73 /  20  20  20  20  20
Houston (IAH)              75  88  75  88  75 /  20  20  10  20  20
Galveston (GLS)            79  85  79  84  79 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 AM CDT Thursday
     for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

May. 16 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was warm, sunny, and dry. No rain. There might have been some showers, or thunderstorms near the Houston, TX area, but I didn't see any on the radar. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts and some really strong gusts during the evening and maybe night. There were stratus clouds scattered across the sky, during most of the day. There were no watches, warnings, advisories, alerts, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The day was warm. The low temps were in the 70's with  maybe some 60's, I think, and the high temps were in the 80's with maybe some 90's, I think, for the Houston, TX area.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.


Thoughts: No rain yet. Maybe some rain on Saturday and Sunday!

Monday, May 15, 2017

May. 15 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: No rain for the Houston, TX area. Maybe a few sprinkles in some locations.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX, Cypress, TX.


Thoughts: I enjoyed the stratus clouds today. Still no rain yet. 

Sunday, May 14, 2017

May. 14 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the late morning.
Cypress, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Katy, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Katy, TX, during the late afternoon.
Cypress, TX, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
Cypress, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was warm, sunny, and dry. No rain. There were stratus clouds scattered across the sky during most if not the whole day. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to maybe moderately strong wind gusts. There was a air quality alert issued for the Houston, TX area for May 15, 2017 and I think today. There were no other watches, warnings, advisories, alerts, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area that I know of. The low temps were in the 60's, I think, and the high temps were in the 80's with maybe some 90's, but I don't think so, for the Houston, TX area.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX, Cypress, TX, Katy, TX.


Thoughts: Another warm and sunny day. It looks like there are a lot of rain chances for the Houston, TX area this week and next week. So I am excited about that.


Air Quality Alert

TXZ213-237-238-152200-

AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
138 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017

...OZONE ACTION DAY MONDAY...

THE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ)...HAS ISSUED AN
OZONE ACTION DAY FOR THE HOUSTON...GALVESTON...AND BRAZORIA AREAS FOR
MONDAY MAY 15 2017.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING
HIGH LEVELS OF OZONE POLLUTION IN THE HOUSTON...GALVESTON AND
SURROUNDING AREAS ON MONDAY. YOU CAN HELP PREVENT OZONE POLLUTION BY
SHARING A RIDE...WALKING...RIDING A BICYCLE...TAKING YOUR LUNCH TO
WORK...AVOIDING DRIVE THROUGH LANES...CONSERVING ENERGY AND KEEPING YOUR
VEHICLE PROPERLY TUNED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON OZONE:

OZONE: THE FACTS (WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/AIRQUALITY/MONOPS/OZONEFACTS.HTML)
EPA AIR NOW:
(WWW.AIRNOW.GOV/INDEX.CFM?ACTION=AIRNOW.LOCAL_CITY&CITYID=236)
TAKE CARE OF TEXAS: (WWW.TAKECAREOFTEXAS.ORG/AIR/AIRQUALITY)

$$