Saturday, August 19, 2017

Aug. 19 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.


Summary: The day was hot, sunny, and dry. There looked to be some isolated light to moderately heavy showers and maybe a few thunderstorms in and around the Houston, TX area, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts with some moderately strong gusts. It felt warm, during the early morning and night. It felt very warm, during the mid-morning. It started to feel hot, during the late morning. It started to feel very hot, during the early afternoon. It felt very hot, during the mid and late afternoon. It started to feel hot again, during the early evening. It started to feel warm, as the sun went down, during the late evening. There was a Special Weather Statement and a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, for excessive heat, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and 80's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's with maybe some 80's, for the Houston, TX area.


Storm Summary: There were no reports of flooding, or storm damage, anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, that I know of.

My Storm Summary: There looked to be some darker stratus and stratocumulus clouds, during the early afternoon, while I was at my house in northwest Houston, TX, but no rain fell from them. I didn't see any flooding, wet roads, or storm damage. I didn't hear any thunder, or see any lightning strikes.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: More sunshine up ahead. Looks like Monday, or Tuesday is Houston, TX's best chance for rain.


Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201130-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
629 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat index values should reach between 100 to 107 this afternoon
inland and possibly 105 to 110 along the coast with higher
humidity. Please use caution when working outside and drink
plenty of water. Seek immediate medical attention if you suspect
that you or someone else is experiencing heat illness.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Heat index values of 100 to 107 are expected Sunday. Please use
caution when working outside and drink plenty of water. Seek
immediate medical attention if you suspect that you or someone
else is experiencing heat illness.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

$$

Friday, August 18, 2017

Aug. 18 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was hot, dry, and sunny. There looked to be isolated light to moderate and moderately heavy showers and a maybe a few thunderstorms in and around the east Houston, TX area, during the morning and afternoon, spreading into parts of the west, north, and maybe southern areas of Houston, TX, during the evening. All of the rain looked to have dissipated out of the Houston, TX area, by the early night. I didn't feel, or hear any rain drops. I did see a drop of water on my car's front windshield, on my way home, in northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening. Stratus and stratocumulus with maybe some alto stratus clouds, looked to cover most of the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts with maybe some moderately strong gusts. It felt warm, during the early morning and night. It felt warm, becoming hot, during the mid-morning. It felt hot, becoming very hot, during the late morning. It felt very hot, almost unbearably hot, during the early afternoon. It felt very hot, during the mid and late afternoon. It felt hot, during the early evening. It felt hot, becoming warm, during the late evening. There was a Special Weather Statement issued for the Houston, TX area, for the excessive heat, along with maybe  a Heat Advisory, and a Hazardous Weather Outlook, issued by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's with maybe a few 80's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's, for the Houston, TX area.


Storm Summary: There were no reports of flooding, or storm damages, anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, that I know of.


My Storm Summary: I started to see some storm looking clouds towards the east side of Houston, TX, while I was at work in northwest Houston, TX, looking east, sometime during the afternoon and during the early evening. I didn't feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't see any wet roads, flooding, or storm damages. I didn't hear any thunder, or see any lightning strikes.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


 Thoughts: Not much to report. Only that it is starting to feel even hotter.


Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
358 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-192100-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
358 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heat index values should reach between 100 to 107 this afternoon
inland and 105 to 110 along the coast. Please use caution when
working outside and drink plenty of water. Seek immediate medical
attention if you suspect that you or someone else is experiencing
heat illness.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Heat index values of 100 to 107 are expected each afternoon from
this weekend. Please use caution when working outside and drink
plenty of water. Seek immediate medical attention if you suspect
that you or someone else is experiencing heat illness.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activity is not expected at this time.

$$

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Aug. 17 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
West Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Summary: The day was hot, sunny, and dry. No rain. I don't remember seeing any rain anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. There might have been some isolated light to moderate showers in and around the Houston, TX area, during the morning, afternoon, and evening, but I never saw, or remember seeing any. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. Alto stratus and stratus with stratocumulus clouds looked to be widely scattered across the sky, during the early morning and maybe evening. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds looked to have started to become scattered across the sky, sometime during the late, or maybe mid-morning and continued on through the afternoon. The sky looked to be becoming clear, during the late evening. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts with some moderately strong gusts. It felt warm, during the early morning and night. It felt very warm, during the mid-morning. It started to feel hot, during the late morning. It felt hot, during the early and mid-afternoon. It started to feel very hot, during the late afternoon. It started to feel hot again, during the early evening. It started to feel very warm and then warm, during the late evening. There was a Heat Advisory issued for the Houston, TX area and there was also a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. The low temps looked to be in the 70's with maybe some 80's, or maybe 80's with some 70's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's, for the Houston, TX area.


Storm Summary: There were no reports of flooding, or storm damage anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, that I know of. 


My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't see any storm clouds, wet roads, flooding, or storm damage.


Thoughts: Just another hot and sunny day here in Houston, TX.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 172330
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.AVIATION...
Radar pretty quiet across SE TX this afternoon so far, but will be
keeping an eye on a couple of spots. One over the north/central FA
(around CXO) where an outflow from earlier convection has stalled.
The other locations concerns the large area of storms over Central
TX at this time. Will have to keep close tabs on CLL for the poss-
ible inclusion of SHRA/TSRA this evening. At this time there is no
mention of precipitation in the TAFS for until tomorrow. Otherwise
will be keeping MVFR CIGS in for northern sites for early tomorrow
morning. 41


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

A heat advisory remains in effect for most of the area through 7
PM. The showers and storms that passed through the Piney Woods
earlier today have all pretty much dissipated at this point, and
quiet (but hot) weather is expected for the rest of the evening.
Not a whole lot has really changed from the previous forecast,
with ridging largely in place through the next several days. This
will lead to hot and humid afternoons, with heat indices nearing
heat advisory criteria (108) in some locations. Starting on
Sunday, an inverted upper trough pushes towards the area, cooling
high temperatures down just a touch and allowing rain chances back
into the forecast. The upper trough will likely remain in the
vicinity through at least mid week, but models are diverging on
where it ends up after that. The ECMWF keeps the troughiness in
place through the rest of the forecast period, while the GFS
pushes the trough westward over Mexico and sets up ridging
overhead once again. PoPs have been capped at 20% for Thursday
until the models can (hopefully) get a better handle on it. 11

MARINE...
Lighter winds and lower seas can be expected from the end of the
week into the middle of next week as Gulf of Mexico area high
pressure edges closer to the northwestern Gulf. Rising rain
chances are anticipated early next week as a disturbance moves
westward across the area.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      78 100  77 100  77 /  20  10   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)              79  97  79  97  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            84  91  83  91  82 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...
     Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...Harris...
     Jackson...Liberty...Madison...Matagorda...Montgomery...San
     Jacinto...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

     High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for the
     following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...
     Matagorda.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-182100-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
348 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heat index values are already ranging between 104 to 109 this
afternoon. Please use caution when working outside and drink
plenty of water. Seek immediate medical attention if you suspect
that you or someone else is experiencing heat illness.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Heat index values of 103 to 107 are expected each afternoon from
Friday through the weekend. Please use caution when working
outside and drink plenty of water. Seek immediate medical
attention if you suspect that you or someone else is experiencing
heat illness.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activity is not expected at this time.

$$

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Aug. 16 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was sunny, hot, and dry. Some rain. There looked to be a few light to moderate showers in and around the Houston, TX area, during the morning and then scattered light to moderately heavy showers and maybe a few thunderstorms in and around the Houston, TX area, on TWC's Houston, TX radar, during the early and mid-afternoon. I saw a huge cluster of light to moderate and some moderately heavy rain showers, or maybe thunderstorms to the south of the Houston, TX area, on TWC's Houston, TX radar, during the evening. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky with maybe some alto stratus clouds, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts with some moderately strong gusts. It felt warm, during the early morning and night. It felt very warm, during the mid-morning. It felt hot, during the late morning and early evening. It felt very hot, during the afternoon. It felt hot, becoming warm, during the late evening. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA and a Heat Advisory issued for the Houston, TX area. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's, or maybe 80's with some 70's, or 70's with maybe some 80's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's, for the Houston, TX area.


Storm Summary: I didn't hear about any reports of any flooding, or storm damages anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area.


My Storm Summary: It had looked like it had wanted to rain during the morning, but I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't see any flooding, wet roads, or storm damage.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: More sun, more dry weather. Nothing new expected to change. There are just a few small chances for rain, for the Houston, TX area, for the rest of this week and next week. Monday looks to be the best chance for rain, for the Houston, TX area.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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662
FXUS64 KHGX 170010
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
710 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.AVIATION...
There are still a few SHRAs around SE TX this evening (mostly near
the coast), but will be expecting this activity to wind down soon.
Overall not a lot of changes with the general trends with the TAFS
as weather pattern remains in a familiar summer pattern. Will keep
brief MVFR CIGS in at the northern sites for early Thu morning and
the mention of VCSH at southern/coastal sites for possible daytime
heating/seabreeze induced activity. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

A heat advisory is in effect for portions of SE Texas through 7
PM this afternoon. Several obs are coming in at or above 108
within the advisory area, and the breezy onshore winds are not
causing the dew points to mix out as much as initially
anticipated. A handful of showers and thunderstorms have developed
across the southeastern portion of the area this afternoon, and
this activity will likely continue through this evening.

Otherwise, a typical summer-like pattern will continue through the
period. Ridging overhead will allow high temperatures to rise well
into the 90s with heat indices generally in the 104-109 degree
range each afternoon. Like today, a heat advisory may be required
at times over the next several days. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will continue to be possible each afternoon, with
some small variations in coverage and location depending on slight
differences in the upper-level pattern each day. The upper-level
ridge loosens its grip somewhat heading into next week, cooling
temperatures down just a touch and allowing for slightly higher
rain chances to start out the work week.  11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      78  99  76  99  77 /  10  10  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              80  96  78  96  78 /  10  20  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            84  91  83  90  82 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Fort Bend...Galveston...
     Harris...Jackson...Liberty...Matagorda...Wharton.

     High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for the
     following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...
     Matagorda.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Thursday morning for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
328 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-172030-
Brazoria-Chambers-Fort Bend-Galveston-Harris-Jackson-Liberty-
Matagorda-Wharton-
328 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heat indices of 106-110 degrees are already occurring across the
area this afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 7 PM this
evening. Please use caution when working outside and drink plenty
of water. Seek immediate medical attention if you suspect that you
or someone else is experiencing heat illness.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Hot afternoons will persist through the upcoming weekend. The
maximum heat indices each day are expected to range from 104 to
109 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Aug. 15 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was hot, sunny, and dry. Maybe some rain. I saw some isolated light to moderate showers in southeast Houston, TX, on TWC's radar, during the early afternoon. I didn't see anymore rain after that. I didn't feel, see, or hear any rain drops. Alto stratus with stratus and maybe some stratocumulus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the early morning. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds looked to have become widely scattered across the sky, sometime during the late, or maybe mid-morning and lasted through the early evening. The sky looked to be becoming clear, during the late evening. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts with some moderately strong gusts and maybe some really strong gusts. It felt warm, during the early morning. It felt very warm, during the mid-morning and night. It felt hot, during the late morning. It felt very hot, during the afternoon. It started to feel hot, during the early evening. It started to feel very warm, during the late evening. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and 80's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's, for the Houston, TX area.


Storm Summary: There were no reports of flooding, or storm damages anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, that I know of.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: When is it going to rain again. Almost one week since I have last seen rain. : /


rea Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 160120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
820 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.AVIATION...
Isolated SHRAs along/near the coast earlier this afternoon have
all dissipated. Did keep a mention of MVFR CIGS in for the nor-
thern sites overnight tonight through early Wed morning as this
has been the trend of late. Guidance indicating a slight uptick
with PWs tomorrow morning/afternoon so no major disagreement in
keeping the mention of VCSH for sites across the southern sites
tomorrow. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/

Subtle differences in the atmosphere will continue to dominate
changes in the forecast for the next several days. Temperatures
and humidity will be exactly what you`d expect from Houston in
mid- August - both high. The second half of the week may see a
return of heat advisories as upper ridging builds heights over SE
Texas again, but will ultimately depend on some more difficult to
predict features that preclude a confident statement of how
necessary they will be.

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

It was another warm start this morning, with a couple more potential
record warm minimums in the area hanging on temp trends through
tonight (see Climate below). The current forecast makes it likely
that those tentative records will hold thanks to the high humidity
levels. As in previous days, showers and thunderstorms have been
considerably more numerous to our east, with some bleedover into our
eastern counties. However, vertical growth of today`s cloud streets
on satellite indicate that rain chances tail off from east to west
across our portion of Southeast Texas for the rest of the afternoon.

SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Another warm night is expected tonight and Wednesday night.
Overnight lows will again be in the vicinity of record high values.
Rain patterns should look pretty familiar - a handful of streamer
showers early near the coast, giving way to isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. The best potential
for rain, like today, is likely to be along the eastern edge of our
area of responsibility. Though the upper ridge will be trying to
build, there are indications of a very subtle upper low sneaking
across the area somewhere in this timeframe. How much this enhances
rainfall potential will be somewhat dependent on the timing and
amplitude of this low, and there`s not been a lot of real
significant run to run consistency on this. For instance, Wednesday
previously looked drier, but with only modest increases in heights
leaving a lingering weakness in the ridge and an increase in
precipitable water, it doesn`t look quite as dry now. There may be
some more small changes in thinking on this until there is more
confidence in how this transition to a stronger ridge aloft will
play out.

In the current forecast, Wednesday features maximum heat indices of
104 to 108, with isolated spots of 108-110. Thursday`s forecast is a
touch warmer, in the 104-109 range, and some localized spots
reaching 110. These grids may end up being a bit of a worst case
scenario. Am concerned that dewpoints may be able to mix out a
little more, or on the flip side, temps may not get quite as hot if
that mixing doesn`t occur. Either way, a slight shift in either way
on this sliding scale would tip the heat index calculation too far
out of balance, resulting in lower apparent temperatures. Suffice to
say, it`s going to feel hot. Whether or not it`s enough to warrant
the issuance of an advisory is less of a slam dunk.

LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

This end of the work week into early next week will feature the
brief reign of a midlevel high, which then moves off to the west and
weakens with the approach of an upper trough. We can look for
temperatures to bounce back upwards heading into the weekend, but
then with slight cooling into early next week. Also, we should see
rain become more isolated (or even drier), with some bounce back
sometime in the back half of the weekend or early next week. As
mentioned above, while there`s been some consistency in the guidance
in showing this upper trough, there hasn`t been as much consistency
in strength or timing. As it is, the Euro keeps this trough more
constant in strength, and is a touch slower. The GFS starts out with
a stronger trough, but shears it out and makes it weaker. The
Canadian, for what it`s worth, is about half a Gulf slower than the
Euro and GFS, and considerably weaker by the time it reaches our
coastal area. That said, it still manages to generate some fairly
widespread seabreeze convection, so I`ve modestly stepped up PoPs
for early next week, but not quite to the level in the guidance, to
account for lack of confidence in the upper pattern.

As far as potential for heat advisories this weekend, much of the
same logic from the short term applies here. If the perfect balance
of temp and RH occurs, which tends to be more of the scenario
currently in the forecast, heat advisories may be needed. Tip too
far to high values in one way or the other, and the meteorology to
require it will likely limit the other too much, capping high heat
index potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      78  99  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              80  95  80  96  79 /  10  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            84  91  84  90  84 /  10  20  10  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 8 AM CDT Wednesday for
     the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-161300-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
537 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The afternoon high temperature is expected to reach into the mid
and upper 90s over the inland areas of Southeast Texas today. The
heat indices are expected to reach as high as 103 to 107 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Hot afternoons will persist through the upcoming weekend. The
maximum heat indices each day are expected to range from 103 to
108 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$

Monday, August 14, 2017

Aug. 14 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
West Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
West Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.


Summary: The day was hot, sunny, and windy. Not much rain. I saw a few isolated light and moderate showers in and around the Houston, TX area, on the TWC radar, during the early evening. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. Alto stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, during the early morning. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds looked to have started to become scattered across the sky, sometime during the late, or maybe mid-morning and continued to be scattered across the sky through the afternoon, evening, and maybe night. The sky might have become clear, or maybe mostly clear, during the early night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts with maybe some really strong gusts. It felt warm, during the early morning and night. It felt very warm, during the mid-morning and late evening. It felt hot, during the late morning and early evening. It felt very hot, during the afternoon. There was a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and 80's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's, for the Houston, TX area.


Storm Summary: There were no reports of flooding, or storm damages, that I know of.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Will Houston, TX ever see rain again... It has been almost a week since the last time that I saw rain.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 142357
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
657 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.AVIATION...
Other than some (vicinity) thunder in and around CXO this
evening...VFR will prevail through the sunrise hour. Periodic
short-lived MVFR ceilings over far interior hubs...scattering out
to a FEW-SCT cumulus field tomorrow afternoon. An analogous
scenario with light onshore winds and isolated late day shower
activity. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The main driver of the forecast over the next several days appears
to be the strength and location of ridging aloft, which will nudge
temperatures modestly up or down, and determining whether there will
be potential for scattered showers and storms, or a more suppressed
atmosphere. Day to day changes will likely be rather small into the
weekend, with only subtle changes. Thus, the focus will almost
certainly continue to be the characteristic hot, humid summer of
Southeast Texas.

Luchs

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Through 2 pm, the radar has been pretty quiet, outside of a couple
isolated showers in Liberty County. Though some subtle features
could be seen in the low level GOES-16 water vapor imagery,
subsidence under the ridge appears to largely be winning out,
except in the vicinity of Galveston Bay (which likely explains the
isolated showers in Liberty County). Meanwhile, after a fast
start, temperature rises this afternoon have leveled out somewhat.
The idea of a hot, humid day that sees the heat index near the
coast top out just below heat advisory thresholds still seems
safe.

This evening, any showers that do manage to initiate today should
wind down very quickly. However, despite the loss of solar heating,
temperatures aren`t likely to go into a tailspin. With overnight
dewpoints in the middle 70s to around 80, low temperatures tonight
will again be very warm. Houston, Hobby Airport, and Galveston are
all currently at least tied for their record warm mins today, and
though it may be close, there`s a strong chance all of them hold on.

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The upper ridge looks to briefly weaken Tuesday, and both the GFS
and Euro suggest some subtle midlevel vorticity slides across
Southeast Texas. But don`t want to sell out too hard on PoPs, as the
NAM modestly lowers heights, but doesn`t show any vort lobes and as
a consequence looks pretty dry. Put the highest PoPs in that subtle
Galveston/Gulf seabreeze convergence zone, which may benefit most
from the lower heights aloft. Temperatures may be a touch (read: a
degree or two) cooler, but with such a brief, modest change in the
column and such a warm start to the day, there should be little to
no change in temps.

After that, look for things to settle back down Wednesday as ridging
attempts to build in yet again from the east. Again, we`re only
looking for modest changes in heights and surface pattern, so
changes will be minimal, but may ultimately lock in Tuesday as the
best potential for rain, as Wednesday backs down to isolated or
widely scattered development.

Both days again look to have heat index values that are on the
fringe of the heat advisory threshold again. Whether an advisory
is necessary will likely depend on sky cover and the state of
boundary layer moisture, determining if dewpoints will mix out or
stay high enough to boost the heat index past 108. Both aspects
are very difficult to forecast from much range, so it seems calls
on any advisories will be a day to day call. Expect this trend to
continue through the week.

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Pretty good agreement in the guidance for a 595-ish midlevel high
stacked over a surface high to develop over the northern Gulf
coast and drift westward late in the week. This seems likely to
clamp down on rainfall potential pretty well for the late week,
with only modestly better potential this weekend on the backside
of the high. Another thing to watch for this weekend that`s
emerged in the 12Z guidance is a TUTT moving across the Gulf
behind this ridge. This may help to boost rainfall potential by
lowering heights and increasing vorticity advection over the
region. However, this is a relative newcomer with this morning`s
model runs and we`re looking nearly a week out, so it`s probably
best not to commit too much to a specific scenario.

Though a ridge in the area of 595 dm isn`t astoundingly strong by
the area`s standards, we should see response in temperatures from
subsident warming over time as it moves slowly along. It may not be
quite as apparent near the coast with the moderating water, but do
introduce isolated triple digit temps in the northwest towards
College Station late in the work week.

AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Most recent model runs are indicating little SHRA/TSRA coverage this
afternoon, but with high temperatures possibly getting a degree or
two warmer than yesterday decided to keep the VCSH already in some
of the area TAFs. Otherwise, VFR with S to SW winds around 10 knots
this afternoon and 5 to 10 knots tonight. Could see some low cloud
(mainly MVFR) development around the CLL and UTS areas toward
morning.
Similar conditions during the day tomorrow with maybe slightly better
SHRA/TSRA chances.  42

MARINE...

Moderate onshore winds (mainly from the south) will persist for the
next several days with caution level speeds expected during the
overnight hours. Winds will gradually weaken toward the end of the
week and over the weekend.  42

CLIMATE...

Houston Hobby is on track to break a record high min temp today.
Low so far is 81, record is 80 (2015). Both Galveston and City of
Houston (IAH) are on track to tie their previous records.
Galveston with 84 in 2010 and Houston with 81 in 1951.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  99  78  98  78 /   0  10   0  20  10
Houston (IAH)              80  95  81  94  81 /  10  40  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            84  90  85  89  85 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Tuesday morning for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...08
Aviation/Marine...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
415 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-150915-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
415 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Temperatures will warm into the middle and upper 90s this
afternoon. Factoring in the humidity will produce heat index
values between 103 and 108 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Very warm temperatures will persist for the next seven days. High
temperatures will remain in the middle and upper 90`s with heat
index values between 103 and 108 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Aug. 13 17

(Sorry no pictures today. I forgot!)


Summary: The day was hot, sunny, and dry. There were no storms, or showers anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, that I know of. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. Stratus and stratocumulus clouds with maybe some alto stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts with maybe some occasional moderately strong to really strong gusts. It felt warm, during the early morning and night. It felt very warm, during the mid-morning and late evening. It felt hot, during the late morning and early evening. It felt very hot, during the afternoon. There was a Heat Advisory issued for the Houston, TX area and a Hazardous Weather Outllook issued for the Houston, TX area, by NOAA. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's, for the Houston, TX area.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: More hot weather ahead with little relief.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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966
FXUS64 KHGX 140020
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
720 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.AVIATION...
Quiet radar this evening. The eastern passage of a shortwave
disturbance across northeastern Texas is currently sparking
convection about 75 miles northeast of UTS this evening. Short
range high resolution models keep this activity well off to the
northeast and dissipate it across northern Louisiana Monday
morning. 3-5 hours of near sunrise lower MVFR decks across the
northern hubs...VFR elsewhere. Persistent southwest becoming
southerly flow wind pattern with few-sct VFR cu field forming
from 14 through 18Z. Surge of slightly higher moisture moving in
from the western Gulf along and behind the inland-advancing sea
breeze boundary has VCSH in around metro during the mid to late
afternoon hours. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers and thunderstorms possible across the far northern
areas this afternoon as an upper disturbance moves through.

Hot weather will be the norm this week as high pressure tends to
dominate our weather pattern. Afternoon temperatures climbing to
the mid to upper 90s each afternoon inland will combine with the
onshore flow of moisture to boost the heat index into the 103-109
degree range. Slightly cooler conditions may develop Saturday as
ridging may weaken.

Galveston got to 111 heat index earlier this afternoon with other
inland sites 103 to 108 at 3 pm. Another heat advisory may be
needed again for Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday could be slightly
cooler if showers and thunderstorms develop across the southern
areas as depth of richer low level moisture increases on slightly
stronger southerly flow (and mixing). Rain chance still look
relatively low in the 20-40 percent range Tue and Wed.

Guidances in general is consistent with ridging remaining over the
area and then by Saturday diverge with the placement and strength
of the ridge. ECMWF breaks down the western end of the ridge over
CA/NV/AZ maintaining the ridging over AZ/TX which could allow for
greater rain chances and cooler weather...while the GFS solution
slides the ridge eastward parking it overhead which would maintain
the heat and lower rain chances. Currently favoring the GFS
solution with low pops and continued above normal temperatures and
unfortunately heat index readings.

Tropics...
Newly upgraded tropical storm Gert recurves over the Atlantic and
poses no threat to SETX. Another tropical disturbance in the east
central Atlantic is forecast to move west and could become an
issue for the Gulf or Western Sargasso Sea a week from
Wednesday...so still way to early to do anything other than
monitor it.
45

MARINE...
An increasing pressure gradient between Gulf high pressure and
Plains low pressure will boost wind speeds tonight and into the
midweek. Each night, expect caution level winds for small craft to
be reached, with gradually building waves following behind. In the
back half of the week, the high will gradually come more into
control, allowing winds to modestly diminish. As the Gulf high
wobbles about through the week, as well as with subtle diurnal
effects, the winds may vary from southeasterly to southwesterly, but
that base southerly state will be persistent. This persistence will
help keep tides above astronomical norms by roughly half a foot.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  98  77  97  78 /   0  10   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)              79  96  79  95  79 /   0  10  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            83  92  83  91  83 /  10  10  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from midnight CDT tonight
     through Monday morning for the following zones: Coastal
     waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20
     NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
     to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters
     from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31
Aviation/Marine...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
318 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

TXZ210>214-226-227-235>238-142030-
Austin-Brazoria-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-Galveston-Harris-
Jackson-Matagorda-Waller-Wharton-
318 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect for this afternoon. High temperatures
in the mid 90s this afternoon coupled with high humidity levels
will produce heat index values between 103 and 110 degrees.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Very warm temperatures will persist for the next seven days. Heat
index values will range from 103 to 109 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$