Friday, March 23, 2018

Mar. 22 18

Northwest Houston, TX, at my house, on my way Brittmoore to get my last days lunch, during the late morning.
Northwwest Houston, TX, on my way to Brittmoore to get my last days lunch, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, on my way to, or maybe from Krogers on West Road to get cat food, I think, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, at my house, during the late evening.

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Mar. 21 18

Northwest Houston, TX, on my to work at Brittmoore Animal Hospital. during the early morning.
West, or maybe northwest Houston, TX, getting lunch at Whataburger on Gessner, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, on my way home from work at Brittmoore Animal Hospital. during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, at my home, during the late evening.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Wavy alto stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The day was sunny, dry, and a little cool.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 220046
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
746 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Dry air still firmly entrenched over the northeast areas with
light northeast or easterly winds. Over the southwest half of the
region southeasterly flow ongoing though light as high pressure
over East Texas slides away to the east. Weak pressure gradient
tonight will keep winds light or calm and clear skies should allow
for excellent radiational cooling.

Warm again tomorrow afternoon with above normal temperatures and
still mainly cirrus in the morning with a few cumulus dotting the
areas skies in the afternoon.
45

Thanks going out from the staff here to the CRP office for backing
us up so we could host the Integrated Warning Team meeting.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018/

AVIATION...
VFR expected through the period with SCT-BKN cirrus around FL250
this evening and tonight. Light and variable winds overnight will
become southeasterly and increase to 10-15 knots mid to late
morning. Stronger gusts near 20 knots will be possible during the
afternoon. Moisture return as a result of southeast winds tomorrow
may result in a cumulus field around FL035 developing late in the
TAF period.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED Issued by National Weather Service CORPUS CHRISTI TX/

DISCUSSION...

High pressure over the area will keep dry and mild weather for the
next several days. As the high moves off to the east, another
disturbance coming out of the Rockies will push another front
through the region early next week, with increased rain chances
and potential for thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday]...

Winds decouple once again after sunset tonight, with just some
high clouds between us and clear skies overnight. Onshore flow
resumes in earnest Thursday afternoon, but with dry air currently
in place it will take a while to moisten up the atmosphere enough
for isolated streamer showers. In the meantime, that same return
flow will kick up winds across Southeast Texas, with gusts to 20
mph or so Thursday afternoon and again Friday.

Temperatures will be relatively cool again tonight with clear
skies, light winds and dry air in place. Temperatures will
moderate on into the weekend as the Gulf brings more moisture to
the area.

LONG TERM [Friday Night through Wednesday]...

Moisture will continue to increase over the weekend and early next
week out ahead of a cold front. Temperatures aloft indicate some
capping as PWATs increase, so will maintain low chance pops
through the weekend. Rain chances increase significantly as an
upper disturbance drags a cold front through Texas. Have trended
closer to the ECMWF solution that focuses highest rain chances for
Tuesday and beyond as the cold front stalls over central Texas and
upper disturbances work to remove any convective inhibition that
remains. Models still are not in perfect alignment, so some future
readjustments of strength and timing are expected before the event
begins.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      50  78  59  80  65 /   0   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)              52  78  60  80  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            62  73  66  75  69 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service CORPUS CHRISTI TX
336 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-222045-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
336 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

Mar. 20 18

A Fire Weather Alert for the Houston, TX area.
Northwest Houston, TX, on my way to work at Brittmoore Animal Hospital, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, on my way from work at Brittmoore Animal Hospital, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, at my home, during the late evening.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: The day was cool, dry, and clear.

Mar. 19 18

Northwest Houston, TX, I think, on my way home from my groomer's home in the Woodlands, TX area, during the early morning, around 1 am.
Houston, TX radar, during the early morning.

Northwest Houston, TX, on my way to work, during the early morning.
West Houston, TX, on my way to Pei Wei, during the early afternoon,
Northwest Houston, TX, at Brittmoore Animal Hospital, where I work, on my way home, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, on my way home from Brittmoore Animal Hospital where I work, during the early evening.
West Houston, TX, at Nirvana, doing a Cat Game Night meetup, during the early night.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX, Tomball, TX area, Spring, TX, The Woodlands, TX area, and maybe north Houston, TX, Cypress, TX, and Klein, TX.


Thoughts: A small group of moderate to moderately heavy showers looked to have passed through the Houston, TX area, during the early morning. The day was mostly cloudy, warm, and windy.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 192353
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
653 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.AVIATION...

VFR.

Very warm and dry across the region. Dry thunderstorms have
departed to the east of GLS. Lingering cirrus moving over the
region. WNW-NW winds gusting to around 20kts at 23z will be
relaxing a little this evening then bump back up as reinforcing
cold front in N TX arrives after midnight. Gusty NW winds tomorrow
morning gradually relaxing in the afternoon.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures were very warm this afternoon and Galveston
established a new record high temperature for the day. A
combination of a warm start to the day and a west wind will
generally deliver very warm temps to the region. At 2 PM, a cold
front extended from low pressure over So Missouri to near
Texarkana to near Rockport to Laredo. Radar is showing a few
showers/thunderstorms along the middle Texas coast as lift from
the front coupled with PW values near an inch and daytime heating
trigger precipitation. The experimental HRRR and TT WRF both show
some showers moving up the coast late this afternoon into this
evening so have added isolated shra/tsra to areas mainly east of
US Highway 59 but showers should mainly be along the coast.

Once the front clears the coast, skies will clear area wide. Winds
will decouple inland and the dry air in place will allow for ideal
radiational cooling. Low temps by Tuesday morning will cool into
the mid and upper 40s. The rest of the week looks quiet with
seasonal temperatures. The surface high will settle over SE TX on
Wednesday morning with the coolest temperatures of the week
occurring that morning. The high moves east of the region by
Wednesday evening and onshore winds will return and bring a slow
increase in low level moisture. Winds will increase Thursday night
into Friday as low pressure in the lee of the Rockies deepens.
Upper level ridging over northern Mexico will amplify and expand
over the state and suppress rain chances through Friday night. Low
level moisture will deepen enough that a few showers will be
possible by Saturday under a strengthening capping inversion. The
cap will remain in place through Monday albeit slightly weaker as
the upper level ridge is displaced to the east as a deepening
upper trough moves into the southern Rockies. The middle of next
week is looking wet as the upper level trough moves very slowly
across the southern plains. 43

MARINE...
A surge of cooler/drier air will arrive overnight across the coastal
waters. Offshore flow should increase after midnight and to near
20kt in the Gulf toward 3am or so. Will be issuing a Small Craft
Advisory for the Gulf waters starting then. Winds will slowly
diminish in the late morning and afternoon hours. Onshore winds will
resume Wednesday as high pressure moves off to the east. As lee side
pressures fall, winds will strengthen across a lengthening fetch and
seas will build going into the weekend. Combination of SCEC/SCA
flags may be needed starting as early as Thurs.  47

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through Tuesday.

In the very short-term we need to keep an eye for any lightning
strikes from the isolated cells developing to the southwest of the
area. Some Hires guidance takes some of these cells across southern
parts of the region later this afternoon. Any sparks could quickly
start a fire. Very dry conditions are in place across the region
with current RH`s between 12-25%. Though winds are gusting at times,
speeds are mostly below widespread Red flag Warning criteria. Winds
should rapidly diminish toward sunset.

Speeds will increase once again by mid Tuesday morning with mixing
behind a reinforcing surge of a drier airmass. Northerly winds will
be stronger than what we saw today and widespread 13g23kt speeds can
be expected. However, with the cooler temps, RH`s look to bottom out
between 25-35%. Still needs to be monitored closely...  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      47  70  45  75  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              49  73  48  76  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            56  71  55  72  62 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 3 AM CDT Tuesday
     through Tuesday morning for the following zones: Galveston
     Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45

Mar. 18 18

Houston, TX Fire Weather Alert.
Northwest Houston, TX, on the way to my groomer's home in the Woodlands, TX area, during the mid-morning.
Tomball, TX, on the way to my groomer's home in the Woodlands, TX area, during the late morning.
Houston, TX radar, during the early afternoon.
The Woodlands, TX area, at my groomer's home, during the early evening.
Houston, TX radar, during the early evening.
Houston, TX radar, during the late evening.
The Woodlands, TX area, at my groomer's home, during the late evening.



Houston, TX radar, during the early night.



Locations: Northwest Houston, TX, Tomball, TX, Spring, TX, and maybe north Houston, TX, Cypress, TX, Klien, TX, and The Woodlands, TX.


Thoughts: The day was mostly cloudy and dry. A line of heavy thunderstorms looked like it was going to pass over where I was in the Woodlands, TX area, during the early night, but it passed right over me. I did see some flashes of lightning and heard some distant low rumbles of thunder, where I was in the Woodlands, TX, during the early night and maybe evening.

Mar. 17 18

Houston, TX radar, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, driving towards my house, during the early afternoon.
Houston, TX radar, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Houston, TX radar, during the early night.
Houston, TX radar, during the late night.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Light rain looked to be scattered across the Houston, TX area, during the afternoon, evening, night, and maybe morning. I don't remember seeing any rain, where I was in northwest Houston, TX, during the day. The day was warm, sunny, and mostly cloudy.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 180456
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1156 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018


.AVIATION...
S/W departing the northern areas with weak PVA along the north
side of the speed max still helping with weak lift and elevated
SHRA/isolated TSRA over the northern areas. Expect these to
continue to weaken and have not jumped on the HRRR solutions for
these to intensify and dive southeastward. MVFR/IFR deck should
continue to expand northward tonight with a delay compared to last
night. Sea fog gradually getting thicker near the coast. GLS
should be down to LIFR by 08z if not sooner.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms tomorrow with another s/w that
rides in from the west but confidence is still fairly low with a
fairly stout cap that blankets the area in the morning but with
temperatures reaching the 82-83 degree range the cap should have
nearly eroded (19-21z). After the showers depart in the early
evening will be looking for the Pacific cold front/pre-frontal
trough to swing winds to the west around 08z at IAH with the
potential for SHRA again.

45

.MARINE...
Marine dense fog advisory out shortly.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Did do an update to the grids earlier this evening...to account
for the convection developing out west that was headed this way.
Activity to the north did hold together and is currently moving
across our northern CWA. The storms out west, however, were not
quite as potent. But at this time, trends are indicating things
are winding down (with the loss of heating). Will likely be mak-
ing just a few more tweaks to clean up the wording. The rest of
the the forecast looks good. 41

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 351 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/

Another warm and humid day across SE TX. GLS is within one degree
of tying a record high temperature. Clouds have been slow to
clear this afternoon but with another hour or so of heating, it`ll
still be possible to generate some showers. An upper level
disturbance over Central Texas will move east tonight and this
feature will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms over
mainly the northern third of SE TX. The best chance for storms
over the north will be between 9 PM and 2 AM. SPC has brought
slight risk for severe storms into the CWA. The 12z ARW and NMM
are more aggressive with precipitation working its way into the
northern zones tonight. Still have some significant concerns that
strong capping will limit the convective potential. Areas to the
south, including the city of Houston, feel capping will hold and
only weak showers will be possible tonight. Water temps have
warmed a few degrees since yesterday but SREF ensembles still show
some potential for sea fog tonight and will continue to mention
fog near the coast and over the coastal waters.

On Sunday, capping should limit precipitation to just some weak
showers in the morning but fcst soundings show the cap weakening
between 18-21z, convective temps in the lower 80s and PW values
increasing to 1.55 inches. SE TX will also lie in weak RRQ by
afternoon and this feature might provide enough lift to generate
some afternoon shra/tsra. A dry line or surface trough will move
though SE TX on Sunday night and skies will begin to clear from
west to east. The drier air will allow for some cooler temps over
the western half of the CWA.

On Monday, drier air in place will allow for a large diurnal
range in temperatures and high temps will warm into the lower
80`s. RH values will plummet with the warm daytime temps and dew
points in the 30`s. Min RH values will probably fall into the
teens and W-NW winds will be around 15 mph with higher gusts.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Monday and a
Red Flag Warning may be required. Elevated fire weather conditions
will remain possible on Tuesday as a secondary surge of cooler
air filters into the region. Winds look a bit higher on Tuesday
but temperatures look cooler and RH looks a bit higher. High
pressure will build into Texas on Tuesday and settle over SE TX by
Wednesday morning. This feature will bring clear skies, low
humidity and seasonal temperatures. The high moves east on
Wednesday and onshore winds will return by Wednesday night with
onshore winds continuing into next weekend. A subtle warm up will
begin on Thursday with temps again in the lower 80s by next
weekend as weak upper level ridging develops over northern Mexico.
43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      67  84  60  80  49 /  50  30  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)              68  84  68  83  53 /  20  30  30  10   0
Galveston (GLS)            69  78  69  80  58 /  10  20  20  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
314 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-182015-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
314 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight
north of a Bryan to Livingston line as a weak upper level
disturbance moves across the state. The primary severe weather
hazard will be large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Dry air will move into Southeast Texas on Monday and humidity
levels will fall below 20 percent. Elevated fire weather
conditions will be possible as west winds increase to 15 to 20
mph.

Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be be possible late this evening.

$$

Mar. 16 18

Houston, TX, during the late morning.
Houston, TX radar, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, at my house, during the late evening, or maybe sometime during the early, or maybe late night.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: A band of showers passed through the Houston, TX area, during the morning and maybe early afternoon.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 170305
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1005 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Only minor tweaks to the grids for the overnight hours with this
update...mainly to match the ongoing trends. Mid/high clouds are
continuing to move in from the west this evening as moisture con-
tinues to deepen from the south/Gulf. As per the current obs the
the gusty SW winds have begun to decouple and we are starting to
see visibilities/ceilings fall over parts of the area. These low
dewpoint spreads/lighter winds bode well for further fog develop-
ment overnight through early Saturday morning (as covered by the
current grids). 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 336 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018/

The disturbance bringing showers to the region this afternoon
will exit the area and this will allow precip to end late this
afternoon. Onshore winds will continue to draw gulf moisture into
the region tonight. Winds will slacken tonight and the set up
looks favorable for areas of fog to develop over much of SE TX.
Radiation fog possible well inland and think some sea fog possible
near the coast. Dew points in the mid/upper 60s tonight will keep
temperatures on the warm side and min temps will only cool into
the mid/upper 60s. The warm start to Saturday coupled with warm
850 mb temps should yield high temperatures in the lower and
middle 80s. Any residual fog will dissipate by mid morning leaving
skies mostly cloudy. Fcst soundings show a weak capping inversion
in place but the cap could erode between 21-00z once temps warm
into the lower 80s. Fcst soundings show PW values reaching 1.65
inches by late afternoon but also shows some dry air in the 85-70
mb layer. Will carry low end PoPs for now and see how things
evolve tomorrow afternoon. A strong capping inversion develops
Saturday night with very little moisture beneath the cap and a
very dry conditions in the 900-600 mb layer. Will carry a slight
chance of showers but most areas should remain dry. Potential
again exists for patchy fog inland and a greater threat for sea
fog near the coast.

Sunday will be similar to Saturday as warm 850 temps and the
warms start to the day will yield high temperatures in the lower
80s. A dry layer was noted between 850-700 mb with a strong cap
weakening toward 00z. Most of the area will remain dry but can`t
rule out some pesky showers. On Sunday night, models diverge a bit
but it looks like a weak surface trough of low pressure or dry
line will move into the region. The area is capped to the south
but over the north, low level saturation deepens to 700 mb but
forcing looks weak and upper level support also looks poor. Will
carry chance PoPs over the north with lower PoPs south and along
the coast on Sunday night. Monday looks dry and warm and RH values
will fall to near 25 percent. Could have some elevated fire
weather concerns mainly west of I-45. A secondary surge of colder
air will come into SE TX Monday night and temperatures will trend
cooler Tuesday and Wednesday. Surface high pressure will move east
of the area by Thursday and a warm up will begin and persist
through next Saturday. Moisture levels look benign so not
expecting precip with the return of warmer temps. Another cold
front will be possible by next Sunday, 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      65  84  66  81  59 /  10  20  20  40  30
Houston (IAH)              68  85  68  81  67 /  10  20  20  40  30
Galveston (GLS)            69  76  66  75  67 /  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for the following
     zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...Matagorda.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$