Record breaking cold this morning with frost on car and building roof tops. Spratic light rain this afternoon and evening. Clouds where mostly cloudy throughout most of the day. Lows in the mid 20's with highs in the mid 40's and maybe some low 50's. Brr.... Rain accumulation was not enough to we the roads.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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712 FXUS64 KHGX 132320 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 520 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR conditions will prevail through the evening with some scattered showers around, but an upper level low swinging in from the west will bring lower clouds through the night. MVFR CIGs along with increasing coverage of showers will begin late this evening becoming IFR CIGs tomorrow morning for most sites. The showers may become heavy enough to bring VIS down to 2 to 4 miles at times late tomorrow morning. Conditions begin to improve tomorrow evening as the system exits the region with a moderate northerly flow developing. JPF && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 339 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019/... .DISCUSSION... Drizzle is beginning far to the west of Houston, but will gradually overspread the area and become light rain showers with some offshore thunderstorms late tonight through tomorrow as an upper low crosses the area. Once that upper low exits stage right, look for quiet and cooler than typical weather behind a weak front. This should persist until the middle of next week - with no more than a slight chance of showers on Sunday. Temperatures will warm gradually, finally returning to seasonal averages just ahead of our next cold front. .SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]... Things are going right as you`d expect with the approach of a closed upper low making its way across Northern Mexico (which looks quite nice on water vapor imagery, FWIW). Yesterday we had a halo around the sun, and clear skies - and cold temps! - last night gave way to a veil of cirrus. Those high clouds became thick, and bases have been slowly descending through the day. Radar returns have erupted to our west today, and though much of the day that all evaporated in the dry lower column, we`ve saturated enough for drizzle and even light rain to begin at the western edge of our area. As the upper low continues to lurch eastward, we should expect things to continue to degrade across the area from west to east as a coastal trough develops. Mid-level clouds will gradually become lower and lower (see the Aviation section for more on that), and virga should give way to drizzle, should give way for area-wide light to occasionally moderate rain showers by morning. Tomorrow afternoon should feature rain drawing to an end from west to east, just as it began. The upper low will scoot northeastward and be absorbed into an upper trough in the northern stream - an upper trough that should help shove a weak front through the area, reinforcing our already cool weather, and restoring dry air in the wake of this quick hitter. (Y`all have no idea how badly the upper Midwesterner in me wanted to say clipper. Can we make Chihuahua Clipper a thing?) While the clouds and southerly flow should keep lows tonight a bit warmer after last night`s very cold temps (more on that in the Climate section below), those same clouds and rain will likely keep highs on Thursday below normal, and will get us started back to low temps by Friday morning around or below freezing in the Brazos Valley around B/CS and the Pineywoods as skies clear and drier, cooler air filters in. .LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]... Really rather quiet in the long term portion of the forecast. An upper-level low pressure system should continue to push east of the region by Friday, and heights will be on the rise. Expect upper- level ridging to remain in place across Southeast Texas through the first half of the weekend. Precipitable waters will once again fall to less than a half inch across much of the region. By Sunday morning, another trough attempts to dig southward across the state of Texas and push east. The strength and placement of this trough axis varies amongst the global guidance, with the GFS being the strongest and slightly more progressive than the ECMWF. Onshore flow will also return Sunday morning, and Gulf moisture will stream in across the region. Precipitable waters should rise back up to 0.9- 1.2 inches. The jet dynamics also look more favorable from Sunday 18Z-06Z Monday, with a 100 knot 300mb jet streak overhead, along with some decent frontogenetic forcing. Expect rain chances to be on the rise Sunday mid afternoon through early Monday morning as this system pushes across the region. Otherwise, temperatures should remain below normal through Tuesday, before warming back up to above seasonable normals. .MARINE... Look for light winds and lower seas today to increase, with winds turning more easterly through the night as a coastal trough sets up. Light showers at the least are a sure bet, and there should be enough instability to fuel a chance of thunderstorms over the Gulf waters, particularly 15 or so miles out. Winds should easily reach SCEC thresholds, and the need for a small craft advisory over some or all of the Gulf waters is looking increasingly probable tomorrow afternoon and night. After the upper low passes, a weak cold front will cross the waters, turning winds northerly. Winds and seas are expected to gradually decrease, and stay relatively light until a more significant front arrives later next week. .CLIMATE... The cold weather will add yet another record to the list for the month of November. Galveston will set a record low temperature today of 35 degrees which occurred during the early morning hours. This will tie the previous record of 35 set in 1911. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 38 44 33 57 34 / 80 80 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 39 46 37 57 36 / 90 90 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 47 52 46 57 47 / 90 90 20 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$
