Nov. 13 2019

Record breaking cold this morning with frost on car and building roof tops. Spratic light rain this afternoon and evening. Clouds where mostly cloudy throughout most of the day. Lows in the mid 20's with highs in the mid 40's and maybe some low 50's. Brr.... Rain accumulation was not enough to we the roads.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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712
FXUS64 KHGX 132320
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the evening with some
scattered showers around, but an upper level low swinging in from
the west will bring lower clouds through the night. MVFR CIGs
along with increasing coverage of showers will begin late this
evening becoming IFR CIGs tomorrow morning for most sites. The
showers may become heavy enough to bring VIS down to 2 to 4 miles
at times late tomorrow morning. Conditions begin to improve
tomorrow evening as the system exits the region with a moderate
northerly flow developing.

JPF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 339 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019/...

.DISCUSSION...

Drizzle is beginning far to the west of Houston, but will
gradually overspread the area and become light rain showers with
some offshore thunderstorms late tonight through tomorrow as an
upper low crosses the area.

Once that upper low exits stage right, look for quiet and cooler
than typical weather behind a weak front. This should persist
until the middle of next week - with no more than a slight chance
of showers on Sunday. Temperatures will warm gradually, finally
returning to seasonal averages just ahead of our next cold front.

.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Things are going right as you`d expect with the approach of a
closed upper low making its way across Northern Mexico (which
looks quite nice on water vapor imagery, FWIW). Yesterday we had a
halo around the sun, and clear skies - and cold temps! - last
night gave way to a veil of cirrus. Those high clouds became
thick, and bases have been slowly descending through the day.
Radar returns have erupted to our west today, and though much of
the day that all evaporated in the dry lower column, we`ve
saturated enough for drizzle and even light rain to begin at the
western edge of our area.

As the upper low continues to lurch eastward, we should expect
things to continue to degrade across the area from west to east as
a coastal trough develops. Mid-level clouds will gradually become
lower and lower (see the Aviation section for more on that), and
virga should give way to drizzle, should give way for area-wide
light to occasionally moderate rain showers by morning.

Tomorrow afternoon should feature rain drawing to an end from west
to east, just as it began. The upper low will scoot northeastward
and be absorbed into an upper trough in the northern stream - an
upper trough that should help shove a weak front through the area,
reinforcing our already cool weather, and restoring dry air in the
wake of this quick hitter. (Y`all have no idea how badly the upper
Midwesterner in me wanted to say clipper. Can we make Chihuahua
Clipper a thing?)

While the clouds and southerly flow should keep lows tonight a bit
warmer after last night`s very cold temps (more on that in the
Climate section below), those same clouds and rain will likely
keep highs on Thursday below normal, and will get us started back
to low temps by Friday morning around or below freezing in the
Brazos Valley around B/CS and the Pineywoods as skies clear and
drier, cooler air filters in.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Really rather quiet in the long term portion of the forecast. An
upper-level low pressure system should continue to push east of the
region by Friday, and heights will be on the rise. Expect upper-
level ridging to remain in place across Southeast Texas through the
first half of the weekend. Precipitable waters will once again fall
to less than a half inch across much of the region. By Sunday
morning, another trough attempts to dig southward across the state
of Texas and push east. The strength and placement of this trough
axis varies amongst the global guidance, with the GFS being the
strongest and slightly more progressive than the ECMWF. Onshore flow
will also return Sunday morning, and Gulf moisture will stream in
across the region. Precipitable waters should rise back up to 0.9-
1.2 inches. The jet dynamics also look more favorable from Sunday
18Z-06Z Monday, with a 100 knot 300mb jet streak overhead, along
with some decent frontogenetic forcing. Expect rain chances to be on
the rise Sunday mid afternoon through early Monday morning as this
system pushes across the region. Otherwise, temperatures should
remain below normal through Tuesday, before warming back up to above
seasonable normals.

.MARINE...

Look for light winds and lower seas today to increase, with winds
turning more easterly through the night as a coastal trough sets
up. Light showers at the least are a sure bet, and there should be
enough instability to fuel a chance of thunderstorms over the Gulf
waters, particularly 15 or so miles out. Winds should easily reach
SCEC thresholds, and the need for a small craft advisory over some
or all of the Gulf waters is looking increasingly probable
tomorrow afternoon and night.

After the upper low passes, a weak cold front will cross the
waters, turning winds northerly. Winds and seas are expected to
gradually decrease, and stay relatively light until a more
significant front arrives later next week.

.CLIMATE...

The cold weather will add yet another record to the list for the
month of November. Galveston will set a record low temperature today
of 35 degrees which occurred during the early morning hours. This
will tie the previous record of 35 set in 1911.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  38  44  33  57  34 /  80  80   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          39  46  37  57  36 /  90  90  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        47  52  46  57  47 /  90  90  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$