Another very hot and dry day for Houston, TX. It looks like the winds are picking up a bit. High stratus clouds with some cumulus covered most of the sky all day today on my journey's through the Heights, Missouri City, and Katy, TX. No rain of any kind.
Houston has mostly been given a tropical storm warning with some areas getting a Hurricane warning. But so far we are going to dodge the big bullet with just a few minor impacts from the wind and rain.
Galveston however has been issued a mandatory evacuation due to hurricane force storm surge.
And Still biting my nails:
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
000
FXUS64 KHGX 260403
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1103 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020
Tropical Storm to Hurricane conditions expected.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Hurricane Laura expected to become a major hurricane. The model
trended a little further east with the track aimed into the TX/LA
border. Some concerns remain with the strength of the upper ridge
over the previous models being too weak. The western edge of the
cone still where the center tracks could still reach High Island
but the consensus is further east. Deteriorating
weather/seas/surge expected throughout the afternoon Wednesday.
Storm surge of 2-4 feet near San Luis Pass to 3-5 for Galveston
and 6-9 feet Bolivar with higher values to the east of High
Island with timing of steady rises throughout the afternoon
peaking around midnight. The north shores of Bolivar/Galveston
Island even down into West Bay and Brazoria county could get
second surge pushing south as it makes landfall. Expecting
sustained tropical storm force winds and possibly hurricane
conditions over the Galveston Bay area eastward on the current
track. Still need to stress that small changes in where the
hurricane begins the turn north can make big differences.
Based on the current track if confidence continues to increase
then maybe adding a Flash Flood Watch to the easternmost counties
in the 4 am update. In the much shorter term the remnants of the
decapitated Marco show up nicely on the microphysics channel just
south of Galveston. Some showers associated with this feature
should rotate westward through the coastal areas overnight.
&&
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR with increasing winds after sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms
coverage on the increase in the afternoon and particularly
overnight. Winds near IAH/HOU should peak 9 pm Wed to 4 am
Thu with northerly winds of 15-30 knots and gusts near 40 knots.
Of course any wobbles in the track could have significant impacts
to the area terminals.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 644 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020/...
.AVIATION [00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...
VFR conditions currently at all TAF sites in the SE Texas CWA.
Areas of ISO-SCT SH/TS associated with the remnants of Marco, are
occuring east of the CWA, but have yet to reach our local TAF
sites. They may still have a chance to shift more westward and
into the local area, but confidence of this happening is low at
this time. Therefore, kept any mention of SH/TS out for this
evening/tonight. Winds continue E-NE tonight at 5-12KTS and gusty
at times.
Cat 1 Hurricane Laura will continue to move W-NW and into the
Central Gulf of Mexico tonight, and is expected to strengthen
further as it continues to move closer to the NW Gulf Coasts. The
current NHC track forecast continues to bring the center of Laura
near the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wed night
and move inland near these areas on Thursday. Locally, expect
SH/TS to begin to move into the local Gulf waters and southern
portions of the CWA early Wed morning...as the day progresses,
conditions will deteriorate and winds will increase. At this time,
Laura is expected to make landfall as a Cat 3 (Major) Hurricane.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecast updates on Laura.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020/
DISCUSSION...
Hurricane Laura is making its way across the Gulf of Mexico,
headed for northwestern Gulf Coast, where it is forecast to make
landfall Wednesday night as a major hurricane. This landfall is
expected to be in the general vicinity of the Texas/Louisiana
border, but with a sharp gradient in impacts expected on the west
side of the storm, the precise landfall point could have
significant influence on the sensible weather felt across
Southeast Texas. Please continue to monitor the latest forecast
products from this office and the National Hurricane Center for
the latest information on expected impacts to our area.
NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Before Laura gets here, we still have to deal with Marco...well,
what remnants are left of it. Interestingly enough, the remnant
circulation is back over water south of Louisiana, and recent
GOES-East imagery shows that one lonely thunderstorm tried to
restart at this circulation, but quickly left a little orphan
anvil. What we will have to deal with is the former storm`s
moisture envelope, helping fuel showers and thunderstorms in
Southwest Louisiana. That envelope is drifting westward into our
area, and we may see some shower and storm development late this
afternoon and tonight. Once sundown occurs, the best potential for
shower and storm development will likely shift offshore.
SHORT TERM/TROPICAL [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The big focus of the forecast, of course, is Hurricane Laura.
Currently a Category 1 storm, Laura is still forecast to become a
major hurricane before making landfall Wednesday night in the
general vicinity of the Texas/Louisiana border. Confidence in this
general scenario is relatively high, but there is still
uncertainty in the precise outcome - in terms of intensity and the
specific landfall point. Unfortunately, this is a situation in
which a small difference in track/intensity can result in outsize
differences in impacts for our area. On the left side of such a
storm, there is often a sharp gradient between the strongest
impact near the center of the storm, and areas farther west.
Because of that, we`ll have to watch this storm very carefully, as
circumstances can change quickly. The key thing we`ll be wanting
to be on guard for is a drift west, as that would push the unhappy
side of that sharp gradient more into our area. Now, with all
that out of the way, let`s discuss impacts assuming the NHC track
holds!
Rip Currents/Storm Surge - Galveston Beach patrol is already
reporting red flag conditions for rip currents today, and this
should be expected to only get worse on Gulf-facing beaches as
the storm approaches. A storm surge warning is in effect from San
Luis Pass to High Island and beyond, where surge may exceed 3
feet. The most extreme impacts will be for the Bolivar Peninsula,
where up to 9 feet of inundation could be seen. Impacts for
Galveston Island should be lower, where inundations of up to 3-5
feet are possible. A storm surge watch remains from San Luis Pass
to Freeport, where up to 2-4 feet of inundation is possible, with
lesser impacts down the coast towards Matagorda Bay.
Winds - The strongest winds are expected to pass just to the east
of our area, but there is still potential for hurricane-force
winds for the Bolivar Peninsula, and northward from there through
Chambers, Liberty, and Polk counties. Of course, with the
uncertainty mentioned, it would not take a big shift in track for
the eyewall to impact these areas, and we`ll have to be very much
on guard here. Expectations for hurricane force winds drop pretty
rapidly to the west, but tropical storm force winds could extend
westward far enough that a tropical storm warning has been issued
for most of the area east of the Brazos River. This notably does
not include Brazos County, however.
Heavy Rain - Again, we struggle here with the potentially
dramatic shift in impacts from east to west across the area - in
the east, we could see 4-8 inches of rain, with isolated amounts
to 15 inches...and a swath of 8-10 inches of expected rainfall is
not far to the east of that. Perhaps no place best illustrates the
sharpness in this rainfall gradient than Harris County. On the
east end, places around Baytown could see up to a widespread total
of 4 inches, while on the west end, Katy could see widespread
totals closer to 1 inch. Because of the expected forward speed of
the storm, how much rainfall we can generally expect is likely to
be a more a function of how close you are to the eyewall. And, of
course, particularly heavy rains in isolated cells, or training of
multiple cells in outer bands could always drop significantly more
rainfall in localized spots. Of course, this is not terribly
dissimilar from most days in Southeast Texas with numerous
thunderstorms, so it will be important to remember your area`s
known floody spots, just in case.
Tornadoes - Tornado potential generally pretty low on the west
side of the storm, so that diminishes the threat significantly.
Still, in any portion of the storm, tornadoes are possible, so the
while the threat is minimal, it is not non-zero.
LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...
There is not a ton to say about the period beyond the passage of
Laura. The storm will essentially get absorbed into extratropical
flow in the northern stream, and could help functionally extend an
upper trough closer to our region, helping prolong active weather
through the weekend, though obviously not anywhere near the impact
of Laura itself. Beyond that, a cold front may try to push into
the region on Tuesday, but there are no expectations at this time
for it to actually directly impact our area as an upper ridge
should build back in over the area in the wake of the storm.
though it may get close enough to again help prolong periods of
showers and thunderstorms into next week.
With the upper ridge reasserting itself and onshore flow
establishing at the surface, temperatures should be near or above
seasonal averages after Laura`s cloud shield clears out of the
area. We are likely to see the return of triple digit heat index
values, and though less probable, it`s way too early to take the
potential for heat advisories off the table.
AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR conditions currently at all TAF sites in the SE Texas CWA.
ISO-SCT SH/TS can be expected this aft and a few sites may
experience brief MVFR to poss IFR conditions in and around TSRA.
Conditions improve this evening and skies will be able to lift and
scatter out early tonight. Winds will be E-NE today at 5-12KTS and
gusty at times...decreasing to around 5KTS tonight.
Cat 1 Hurricane Laura, now located over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, will continue to track N-NW and is expected to strengthen
further as it continues to move closer to the NW Gulf Coasts. The
current NHC track forecast continues to bring the center of Laura
near the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wed night
and move inland near these areas on Thursday. Locally, expect
SH/TS to begin to move into the local Gulf waters and southern
portions of the CWA early Wed morning...as the day progresses,
conditions will deteriorate and winds will increase. At this time,
Laura is expected to make landfall as a Cat 3 (Major) Hurricane.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecast updates on Laura.
MARINE...
Attention is now clearly focused on Hurricane Laura, which is
forecast to intensify into a major hurricane as it moves toward
the northwest Gulf coast. Look for building seas, increasing winds
and decaying weather conditions as it approaches southwest
Louisiana or Southeast Texas Wednesday. The worst conditions
should be expected Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.
Mariners are urged to keep up with the latest National Hurricane
Center forecasts for the latest details.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 95 76 95 77 / 20 50 50 50 30
Houston (IAH) 78 93 78 95 79 / 10 50 80 60 30
Galveston (GLS) 82 89 81 91 83 / 50 60 100 70 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Warning for the following zones: Chambers...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Inland Galveston...Northern
Liberty...Polk...Southern Liberty.
Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Fort
Bend...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Harris...Madison...Montgomery...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands.
GM...Hurricane Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.
Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from
20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Tropical Storm Warning
Laura Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 25
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL132020
1002 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020
TXZ213-261115-
/O.CON.KHGX.TR.W.1013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Inland Harris-
1002 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* STORM SURGE
- No storm surge inundation forecast
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
surge flooding
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
currents are possible.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
are needed.
- ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
forecasts.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
$$
Hurricane Local Statement
Hurricane Laura Local Statement Advisory Number 25
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338
-436>438-261145-
Hurricane Laura Local Statement Advisory Number 25
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL132020
1035 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020
This product covers Southeast Texas
**LAURA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
TX/LA BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MAJOR HURRICANE**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Fort Bend, Grimes,
Houston, Inland Brazoria, Inland Harris, Madison, Montgomery,
San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker, and Waller
- A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
for Brazoria Islands
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Chambers, Coastal Galveston, Coastal Harris, Galveston Island
and Bolivar Peninsula, and Southern Liberty
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Inland Galveston, Northern
Liberty, and Polk
- A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for Coastal Brazoria
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 430 miles southeast of Galveston TX
- 25.2N 89.5W
- Storm Intensity 90 mph
- Movement West-northwest or 300 degrees at 17 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Hurricane Laura continues its trek through the southern Gulf of
Mexico and has begun to get better organized. As of 10 pm CDT, Laura
now has maximum sustained winds of 90 mph with a continued movement
towards the west-northwest at around 17 mph. Additional strengthening
is expected as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to
reach major hurricane strength with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph
at landfall. Laura is expected to make landfall Wednesday night near the
Texas/Lousiana border. Although, tropical storm force winds may reach
portions of southeast Texas as early as Wednesday afternoon. The
strongest winds and heaviest rains occuring overnight Wednesday into
Thursday morning.
Laura will bring a threat of high winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall.
Hurricane Warnings remain in effect for
the Galveston Bay area, as well as
Liberty and Polk counties.
A tropical storm warning covers much of the rest
of Southeast Texas east of the Brazos River.
A storm surge warning is in
effect along the coast from San Luis Pass up through High Island and
continues further north along the Texas coastline into Lousiana.
A coastal
flood advisory is in effect around the Matagorda Bay area.
Specific impacts will be strongly dependent on the exact track and
intensity of the storm when it makes landfall. Stay alert to the
latest forecast information!
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across the Bolivar Peninsula. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.
Also, protect against life-threatening surge having possible
significant impacts across rest of the Galveston Bay area.
Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the rest of the Southeast Texas Gulf Coast to Matagorda
Bay.
Elsewhere across Southeast Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.
* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across the eastern Galveston Bay area. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.
Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible limited
to extensive impacts across the western Galveston Bay area and down
the Texas Gulf Coast to Matagorda Bay.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the Galveston Bay area and Pineywoods.
Potential
impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across the rest of Southeast Texas.
Elsewhere across Southeast Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.
For those not under evacuation orders, assess
the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If
you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do
not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation
orders.
If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind
and allow extra time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit.
Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.
Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Houston/Galveston TX around 4 AM CDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.
$$
