The day was very warm and mostly cloudy. Lots of sunshine and humidity. There was a low chance of rain but no rain fell that I am aware of. No pictures from my phone as there is not enough space.
Still biting my nails:
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 242307 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 607 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR throughout, with afternoon winds becoming light this evening. Northeasterly winds increase to around 10 knots again tomorrow afternoon, with a better chance of afternoon showers/storms as moisture from Marco`s remnants move into the area. && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 316 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020/... .DISCUSSION... While the weakening Tropical Storm Marco still exists, this forecast is dominated by Tropical Storm Laura. The forecast brings a near-major hurricane onshore just east of our area in Southwest Louisiana, leaving us on a razor`s edge between major and lesser impacts. While confidence is increasing in the forecast for this storm, there are still important pieces of model guidance that suggest we need to stay on our toes, and be prepared for changes in the forecast track, potentially resulting in more significant impact from Laura. .SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]... For the meantime, the weather is actually fairly pleasant. We have some scattered showers, almost exclusively over the Gulf of Mexico, but all in all a pretty typical summer day. With the decapitation of Tropical Storm Marco to our east, tomorrow will probably look fairly similar. With the influx of the storm`s remnant surface circulation and some boundary layer moisture, we can expect better chances of rain over land, particularly east of I-45, but even then - I`d expect something that`s smacks more of a typical summer day than a tropical cyclone. If Laura moves faster than expected, we may start to see showers from the outer edge of the storm`s moisture envelope start to spread over the nearshore Gulf waters and begin to encroach on the coast...but for Laura, the real show holds off for the long term portion of this forecast. .LONG TERM/TROPICAL [Wednesday Through Monday]... The portion of the forecast dominated by Laura is fraught with peril, as the NHC forecast puts us just west of a landfalling high-end Category 2 hurricane. This area, like it so frequently is, features a very sharp gradient between significant impact and a more gentle treatment. Giving some comfort is the consolidation of the forecast guidance on the NHC track, giving us greater certainty in the official forecast. We surely cannot sleep on this storm, as even a small westward shift in track and/or a significant increase in the hurricane wind field could change our expected impacts for the worse. Indeed, the Euro ensemble stubbornly refuses to hop on board with the SW Louisiana idea, so we will have to continue to watch carefully, and prepare for quick action if the forecast changes. With all of those disclaimers, here are our expectations given the official forecast. Please check NHC products and local hurricane statements for more details and the latest information: Storm Surge - Potentially life threatening surge could be seen in locations from San Luis Pass up the coast. Up to 2 to 4 feet of surge could be seen as a worst case on Gulf-facing portion of Galveston Island, and up to 4 to 6 feet on the Bolivar Peninsula and Chambers Island coast. Some coastal flooding issues could be seen from high surf and wave run-up further down the coast towards Matagorda Bay. Wind - The highest threat for our area to see damaging hurricane winds will be on the Gulf waters offshore of Galveston Bay, as well as on the Bolivar Peninsula and eastern Chambers County. Much of the rest of the area will see an elevated risk of tropical storm winds on the west side of the storm. Tornadoes - It`s too early to say with much specificity, but the greatest tornado threat tends to be in the right front quadrant of the storm, east of the storm`s center. Given that we are likely to be on the west side of the storm, tornado threat should be lower. Flooding Rains - Thanks to the storm`s expected consistent motion and our position on the west side of the storm, our concern for flooding rains is relatively low, particularly given our...recent history. That said, training bands on the outer portion of the storm could still provide an elevated risk of heavy rain and flash flooding in the eastern part of our area, east of I-45. .MARINE... Though Marco is rapidly making itself a minor part of the weather forecast, some marine impacts are already baked in as swell propagates into our waters from the east. Seas of 3 to 5 feet can be expected into tonight, before waves briefly go into a lull ahead of the arrival of Laura`s swell. Early Wednesday morning, look for seas to increase again as Laura approaches, with seas building as high as 7 to 14 feet late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Assuming the NHC track holds, seas will begin to very, very slowly subside after midnight. Though the highest waves will subside by Thursday morning, SCEC to Advisory-level seas will persist deep into the week. This forecast is obviously dominated by the track and strength of Laura, and are subject to change significantly if that forecast changes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 97 76 95 76 / 10 20 20 40 30 Houston (IAH) 77 96 77 94 78 / 10 30 20 50 40 Galveston (GLS) 82 92 82 90 82 / 10 30 70 70 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Hurricane Watch for the following zones: Chambers...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Southern Liberty. Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones: Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker. GM...Hurricane Watch for the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs SHORT TERM...Luchs LONG TERM/TROPICAL...Luchs AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...Luchs
Tropical Storm Watch
Laura Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 21
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL132020
1005 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020
TXZ213-251115-
/O.CON.KHGX.TR.A.1013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Inland Harris-
1005 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 10-15 mph with gusts to 15 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 74
to 110 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or
2 hurricane force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be
rigorously underway. Prepare for considerable wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some
having window, door, and garage door failures leading to
structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some
destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles.
Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
* STORM SURGE
- No storm surge inundation forecast
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm
surge flooding
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
currents are possible.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
are needed.
- ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
forecasts.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher
amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
localized flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
$$
Hurricane Local Statement
Tropical Storm Laura Local Statement Advisory Number 21 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>438-251145-
Tropical Storm Laura Local Statement Advisory Number 21
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL132020
1033 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020
This product covers Southeast Texas
**LAURA HAS ENTERED THE GULF OF MEXICO, WILL THREATEN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST MIDWEEK.**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Southern Liberty
- A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Chambers and Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Galveston,
Inland Harris, Montgomery, Northern Liberty, Polk, San Jacinto,
Trinity, and Walker
- A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Brazoria Islands and
Coastal Brazoria
- A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
Coastal Galveston and Coastal Harris
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 810 miles east-southeast of Galveston TX
- 22.7N 84.0W
- Storm Intensity 65 mph
- Movement West-northwest or 290 degrees at 20 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Tropical Storm Laura made landfall on the Pinar del Rio province around
7pm CDT, and since then has moved into the southern Gulf of Mexico. It
has maximum sustained winds of around 65 mph and is moving west-
northwest around 20 mph. Laura will be moving through favorable
conditions for strengthening and is expected to reach hurricane
strength by Tuesday afternoon. Additional strengthening is expected
through the next few days, and Laura may be approaching major hurricane
strength as it approaches the northwestern Gulf Coast. Laura is expected
to continue to move in a west-northwestward movement through Tuesday
before turning northwestward and then northward on Wednesday. This
brings Laura near the Texas/Lousiana border Wednesday night. At this
point in the forecast, track forecasts have an average error of around
80 miles.
Specific impacts will be strongly dependent on the exact track and
intensity of the storm when it makes landfall. Stay alert to the latest
forecast information! Adjustments to track may require additional
watches or warnings further down the Southeast Texas Gulf Coast.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across Galveston Island and the Bolivar Peninsula. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages.
Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across portions of the Southeast Texas Gulf Coast.
* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across the Bolivar Peninsula, and the east shore of Galveston Bay.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across portions of Southeast Texas.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts east of Galveston Bay. Potential impacts include:
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across across much of Southeast Texas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.
If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.
Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Houston/Galveston TX around 4 AM CDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.
$$
No comments:
Post a Comment