Sunday, August 30, 2020

Aug. 30 20

 The day was mostly cloudy with puffy cumulus clouds and very hot. There was a 30 percent chance of rain for the Houston, TX area but I did not see any through my travels in southwest Houston, TX, Missouri, TX, and Katy, TX during the late morning and early afternoon. I did not see any rain at my house in northwest Houston, TX either. The sky looked hazy during the late night at my house in northwest Houston, TX.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 302346
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
646 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions for the night with some morning MVFR ceilings in the
CLL/UTS/CXO TAF sites. Tomorrow the day will stay VFR with some
coastal showers starting early and slowly moving inland. As
seabreeze becomes stronger the showers are expected to build into
thunderstorms in the LBX/SGR/HOU/IAH areas. These should only last
through the evening and dissipate as the sun sets and sea breeze
diminishes. After that, VFR conditions should prevail through the
night. 35

&&

.SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]...
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue to popup (and
quickly fall apart) along the sea breeze through this evening. The
showers and thunderstorms should get to between Houston and Conroe
by the late afternoon before the loss of daytime heating ends the
activity. An uptick of PWATs late tonight into Monday morning coming
in from the Gulf will help start showers along the coast a bit
earlier tomorrow - just before or around sunrise. The isolated to
scattered showers tomorrow will also be able to spread across most
of the area by the afternoon. These showers and associated cloud
coverage may be able to provide some brief relief from the
oppressive heat, which will again be on for tomorrow.

Heat indicies this afternoon has climbed into the 105 to 110 degree
range and continue to rise. Some spots along the coast have climbed
even a couple of degrees higher. This heat will continue tomorrow,
with the one caveat alluded to above. If the coverage of the showers
and thunderstorms is large enough, then the heat indicies might be a
few degrees cooler. Take this morning for example at Galveston: The
heat index at 10am was 111 degrees, but a shower moved through the
area and at 10:45am the heat index dropped down to 98 (though it has
since bounced back to 111). If enough showers popup tomorrow, then
we may get a reprieve from the heat. Nevertheless, the Heat Advisory
for today has been extended through tomorrow evening due to not much
of an overnight cool down and heat index values to still climb into
dangerous levels tomorrow.

Fowler


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday] and TROPICAL...
A continued warm, but dry midweek period is expected. Surge of drier
air, currently seen near the Yucatan on the GOES Total PW product,
should advect northward into the region. Combination of this and
breezier southerly winds should limit most seabreeze activity and
drive the higher moisture and focus better rain chances north and
northwest of our CWA. As the pressure gradient weakens and PW`s
slowly increase, slight chances should gradually return Thurs-Fri.
May need to keep an eye on any convection/outflows that develops
to our north late in the week on a diffuse frontal boundary should
any try to sneak into northern parts of the region. Wouldn`t
anticipate the front itself to make it all the way here.

In regards to the tropics: a tropical wave near the Windwards
should continue moving west the next several days. NHC gives this
system a good chance of developing into a depression in the next
day or two. Majority of the medium range solutions take the
"center" toward Central America and Mexico, though a wave axis
along its northern periphery may emerge off the Yucatan and into
the Bay of Campeche late in the week...and toward the Mexico`s
east coast this weekend.  Upper ridging situated across the
northern Gulf Coast states should theoretically keep things to our
south, and of note, few models show much if any organization. That
said...we are heading toward peak season (and it is 2020 after all)
so it`s always worth keeping an eye on things regardless. 47


.MARINE...
A tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing southerly
winds and building seas tonight into midweek. Combination of
SCEC/SCA`s will probably be required at times. Winds/seas should
gradually diminish during the second half of the work week.
Offshore waters may see an increase of precip chances heading
into the weekend depending whether the northern extent of an
easterly wave axis described above extends that far north. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  79  98  80  99  79 /   0  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)          81  96  81  97  81 /  10  30  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)        84  91  84  92  84 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for the following zones:
     Austin...Brazoria
     Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
     Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
     Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
     Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
     Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
     Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
     Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
     Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
     Jacinto...Southern
     Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 10 PM CDT this evening
     through Monday morning for the following zones: Waters from
     Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
     NM.


&&

$$

AVIATION...35


Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
340 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>438-310445-
/O.EXT.KHGX.HT.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-200901T0100Z/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-
Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-
Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-
Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-
Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton,
Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston,
Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham,
Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton,
Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead,
Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu,
Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton,
Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony,
Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton,
League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios,
Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque,
Surfside Beach, and Galveston
340 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values between 108 and 112 degrees.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses to occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heat advisory from Sunday has been
  continued through Monday evening. Overnight heat index values
  will only drop into the mid to upper 80s in the Houston Metro
  area and only into the upper 90s along the coast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

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