High white and grey alto stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky through my travels from home in northwest Houston, TX and work in the Heights area, during the whole day. It felt cool during the early morning. It felt warm during the mid and late morning. It felt warm during the evening. Was inside during the afternoon. It felt a little cool during the night. The wind speeds were light with moderate gusts. I do not think there was a chance for rain anywhere in the Houston, TX area. I did not see, or feel any rain drops. I did not hear about or see any rain falling anywhere in the Houston, TX area, during the day.
Thoughts:
Another strong hurricane looking to get close to the Houston, TX area. Looking to receive more of an impact than from Laura but we are for sure not expecting this hurricane to make a Houston, TX landfall like we were possibly expecting with hurricane Laura. So we should be in the clear. Have not read about any models going into Houston, TX.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
000
FXUS64 KHGX 072331
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, looking at increasing high clouds moving northward
across the area overnight partly associated with the Hurricane Delta
circulation. Have the area staying VFR for this package with the increasing
possibility of a line of SHRA and/or possible TSRA entering the picture
near the coast maybe before sunrise. Activity that does develop should
be able to work its way inland as the day progresses. Expecting we`ll
have better chances of SHRA/TSRA along with the potential for MVFR ceilings
Thursday night through Friday as Delta moves northward toward the Louisiana
coast. Light mainly N to NE winds tonight will become NE and increase
during the day tomorrow. Again, stronger winds and wind gusts are anticipated
to enter the picture Thursday night and Friday in association with
Delta`s circulation. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020/
DISCUSSION...
The dominant question of this forecast period will, of course, be
Hurricane Delta as it makes its way across the Gulf of Mexico
towards the northern Gulf Coast, with an anticipated landfall on
Friday, likely on the Louisiana coast. This track comes close to
our area, and requires us to watch it carefully for any deviation
to the west, which would increase the impact of the storm in our
area.
At this time, a tropical storm watch is in effect for all Gulf
waters, Galveston Bay, and the coastal areas around Galveston Bay
as the storm`s wind field may expand greatly as it approaches the
coast, pushing tropical storm force winds out far enough to graze
this part of Southeast Texas. Additionally, the storm is expected
to generate high seas that may cause coastal flooding with
inundations of 1-3 feet down the Texas coast.
Given the proximity of the forecast track to our area, please
continue to keep up with the latest forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center and our office into the weekend - particularly in
the Galveston Bay area.
SHORT TERM [Through Thursday]...
With surface high pressure lingering over the region, it should be a
mostly dry/quiet/not as cool night for most of SE TX. Isolated show-
ers (associated with HurricaneDelta) could develop and move into our
coastal waters...and perhaps some of our coastal counties overnight.
This coverage should be increasing through tomorrow morning as Delta
tracks into the central/northern Gulf. While the latest NHC forecast
has Delta landfalling around the SW LA coast by the end of the week,
we should see POPs increase tomorrow afternoon over SE TX...with the
highest numbers over the eastern and the coastal portions of the CWA
then trending lower to the west and north due to its proximity.
Lows temperatures tonight are forecast to range from the mid 60s far
inland to the lower and mid 70s over the southern half of the area.
Tomorrow will be another warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s
with some locations near 90. Increasing low-level moisture will also
make for rather humid conditions by tomorrow afternoon.
LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...
By Thursday night, we expect Delta to be a major hurricane again,
making its way northward across the western Gulf of Mexico. Its
track will bring the storm very close to our area - enough that,
should its wind field grow as we are expecting when it draws
closer to the coast, tropical storm force winds can push out far
enough to impact our Gulf waters and a small portion of land
around Galveston Bay.
Since we will be on the west side of the storm, the anticipated
winds will mitigate concern for winds away from the coast.
However, this is a path particularly well suited for seeing
stronger winds on Gulf facing coast earlier on, then on the west
side of Galveston Bay and the bay side of Galveston Island as the
storm passes and winds become offshore with a maximized fetch
across the Bay.
Because of the distance from the center of the storm and
frictional effects of winds over land, we`ve kept the tropical
storm watch restricted to the coastal areas that will see the best
shot for the strongest winds. The main concern here, of course, is
that the potential for those tropical storm winds would bleed
inland should the storm make a jog more to the west.
For now, I am pretty confident in the NHC track, which is positive
news for our area (of course, in the Gulf, positive news for some
is always bad news for another, and unfortunately, that will go to
the beleaguered Lousiana coastline). The bigger question will
likely be how large the wind field itself will be as the storm
arrives. Those in the watch area will definitely want to be
keeping a close on the storm, and making appropriate preparations.
It would also behoove those near the watch area - Trinity,
northern Liberty, inland Harris, inland Galveston, Brazoria,
namely - to also be keeping an eye on things to ensure that the
situation does not change to involve them more significantly.
Beyond the influence of Delta, we`re also looking to the northwest
for the potential of a cold front to pass early next week. With
bigger fish to fry, there`s not been a ton of time to analyze this
front in depth. But it seems quite fair to say that we should
look to see modestly cooler air, but notably drier air for the
middle of next week. While this should give us some relief for
afternoon high temperatures, it`s more likely that the biggest
impact for our area will be to allow overnight temperatures to
drop a bit more thanks to the dry air.
MARINE...
The close approach of Delta will have significant impact on Gulf
waters in the area. Confidence is increasing in a track that
should keep hurricane force winds outside of our waters (though
uncertainty in the size of the wind field does not take this off
the table in the upper offshore waters). However, tropical storm
force winds look likely in the upper Gulf waters and probably
Galveston Bay. They are also a solid possibility in the lower Gulf
waters as well for the window in which winds have a more
favorable fetch from the east.
Look for seas of roughly 7-10 feet in the nearshore waters, and
15-20 feet in the offshore waters as the storm passes, with long
period waves. At the coast, the influence of the storm`s surge
with wave run-up will cause concern for coastal flooding for
vulnerable spots near the water - areas like Highway 87 at 124 on
Bolivar Peninsula immediately leaps to mind. But, with the recent
effect on protective dunes by the landfall of TS Beta, Blue Water
Highway will also vulnerable, and possibly even all the way down
to Matagorda Bay because of this storm`s expected large wind
field. Because of this, there is a coastal flood watch for all of
the upper Texas coast (and farther down the coast, as administered
by neighboring offices).
As always, it will be important to keep apprised of the latest
forecast information from NHC and our office in the next few days,
as any changes in the forecast will influence the impacts felt in
our marine areas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 87 69 81 64 / 10 30 30 40 10
Houston (IAH) 72 87 72 79 68 / 10 40 40 60 30
Galveston (GLS) 76 86 74 81 71 / 20 50 50 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
afternoon for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...
Chambers...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston
Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones: Chambers...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Southern Liberty.
GM...Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...
Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...
Galveston Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$Hurricane Local Statement
Hurricane Delta Local Statement Advisory Number 14
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
235>238-300-313-335>338-436>438-081145-
Hurricane Delta Local Statement Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL262020
1038 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2020
This product covers Southeast Texas
**STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Chambers, Coastal Galveston, Coastal Harris,
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula, and Southern Liberty
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Chambers, Coastal
Galveston, Coastal Harris, Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula, and Southern Liberty
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 530 miles south-southeast of Galveston TX
- 22.5N 90.9W
- Storm Intensity 90 mph
- Movement West-northwest or 300 degrees at 17 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Hurricane Delta is moving into the Southern Gulf of Mexico and is
expected to strengthen as it continues northwestward and into the
Central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Beyond that, cooler waters
and an increase in shear are expected to cause the storm to weaken
modestly before landfall on Friday, but perhaps more importantly for
Southeast Texas, it will cause the wind field to expand, and has
prompted Tropical Storm Warnings for the southeastern corner of our
area.
In addition to the expected larger wind field, there is still some
uncertainty in the precise track of the storm, and any deviance to the
left of the current forecast track will only increase the potential
for more impact to our area than currently expected. We will have to
watch this storm carefully over the next day or so. Preparation
actions that do not require significant time, effort, and money may be
good to accomplish now out of an abundance of caution if you are in the
tropical storm watch area. Even those near the watch area will be well
served to keep an eye on the latest information from the NHC and our
office as the storm makes its crossing of the Gulf of Mexico.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across southeastern counties of SE Texas including the Galveston
Islands and Bolivar Peninsula. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.
Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the portions of SE Texas, except the northwestern and western
counties.
* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across the Southeast Texas coast. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
surge water covers the road.
- Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.
Elsewhere across Southeast Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the southeastern and eastern counties of SE Texas.
Potential impacts include:
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the eastern half of SE Texas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.
Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Houston/Galveston TX around 4 AM CDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.
$$
