Tuesday, July 24, 2018

July. 23 18

Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-morning, on my way to the pet resort that I work for in southeast Houston, TX, from where I live in northwest Houston, TX.
Driving north up 288, during the mid-afternoon, on my way to where I live in northwest Houston, TX, from the pet resort that I work for in southeast Houston, TX.
Still driving north up 288, during the late afternoon, on my way to where I live in northwest Houston, TX, from the pet resort that I work for in southeast Houston, TX.
Driving west down 529, during the late afternoon, on my way to where I live in northwest Houston, TX, from the pet resort that I work for in southeast Houston, TX.
Driving west down 529, during the early evening, on my way to where I live in northwest Houston, TX, from the pet resort that I work for in southeast Houston, TX.
Houston, TX radar, during the early night.
Houston, TX radar, during the late night.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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992
FXUS64 KHGX 240257
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
957 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Not much was changed from the previous forecast. Still carrying
20% chance for precip overnight into Tuesday morning as a frontal
boundary sags into the area. Satellite shows mid level cloud cover
increasing as mid level moistening occurs ahead of this boundary.
Short term guidance keeps suggesting that some showers and storms
could develop, but the real question is whether or not the low
levels will moisten enough to let the precip reach the ground. So
for now, isolated development is possible, but confidence in any
accumulation is pretty low.  11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...

00Z Aviation...Added VCSH to the TAFS for late tonight and
tomorrow. Mid-level moisture increases and lowers as an upper
level disturbance moves across. Expect to see scattered high
based showers generally in the 06Z to 18Z window. There is a
small chance of some TSRA, but not very confident on the TSRA at
this time. A weak front will move into and across the area later
this evening and early tomorrow from the N/NE to the S/SW.
Therefore, we will see E/NE winds areawide tomorrow. 33

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018/

NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...

So the answer to the question "Are we going to issue another heat
advisory for tomorrow" is no. But today it is looking like the
area will experience heat index values topping out in the 107 to
110 range as expected. Mixing of drier air has happened but not as
much in some areas. Temperatures have responded increasing into
the mid 90s to low 100s from the coast towards the Brazos Valley.
The Houston area is pretty solid in the 105 to 106 heat index
value territory and could go higher over the next couple of hours.
Galveston is the place not in the 90s but that 80F dewpoint makes
it feel like 106F. Galveston does have a nice 15 mph breeze but
not sure how much that helps.

Surface analysis shows a slow moving frontal boundary stretching
across central Texas into east Texas. This boundary does push
through the area with NE winds behind it later tonight into
Tuesday. There is also some weak vorticity from a dissipated MCS
over the Red River that could track towards SE Texas tonight.
Forecast will have some slight thunderstorm chances for tonight
into tomorrow with the front mainly. Isolated strong storm could
develop this evening for areas north of Conroe with maybe
additional development after midnight. There could be some
stronger wind gusts or small hail with these storms but mainly
just sub severe winds, brief heavy rain and lightning as threats.
HREF model data shows some decent consistency with these storm
chances but not as robust with the latest HRRR runs.

Heat index values will vary from SW to NE across the area on
Tuesday. We may need an advisory for areas SW of Houston but there
is enough uncertainty to not issue an advisory for tomorrow. Heat
index values could still reach low 100s with high temperatures in
the mid 90s.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Overall it looks like the long wave jet stream pattern of the
ridge over the Desert SW/S Rockies and general troughing east of
the Rockies will hold through the next week. This should help out
temperatures but still upper 90s will be hot. Heat index values
will be closer to 102-106 instead of flirting with 107-110 like
the last few days.

Rain chances look minimal outside of the chances for Tuesday. But
forecast models are brining a stronger short wave into the main
trough this coming Sunday into Monday. A front with this system
looks decent enough to push into the area and introduce some
thunderstorm chances. Otherwise there does not appear to be any
good chance of easing summer time dry/drought conditions.

Overpeck

MARINE...

Light to moderate S/SW winds to prevail this evening with additional
weakening expected overnight with the approach of a weak front (from
the NE). The boundary is forecast to reach the bays/nearshore waters
early Tue night and then into the offshore waters early Wed morning.
Very light NE winds to develop behind this line through Wed evening.
Onshore winds to return by Thurs...and slowly strengthen through the
end of the week into the weekend. Not anticipating any advisories or
caution flags through this forecast period. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)     103  79  97  76  99 /   0  20  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)              99  80  96  77  98 /   0  20  20  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            90  82  91  81  90 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
600 AM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>438-241100-
Austin-Brazoria Islands-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-
Coastal Galveston-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-
Coastal Matagorda-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-Grimes-Houston-
Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Madison-Matagorda Islands-Montgomery-
Northern Liberty-Polk-San Jacinto-Southern Liberty-Trinity-Walker-
Waller-Washington-Wharton-
600 AM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

High temperatures today will approach 100-104 degrees inland with
heat index values of 108 degrees or higher at times. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Hot temperatures will return to the southern portions of the
region again Tuesday. A heat advisory may be needed for the
southern portions of the area. A weak cold front on Tuesday will
bring slightly cooler temperatures and possibly a few showers or
thunderstorms to the region. Heat will return Wednesday and linger
into next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$



Locations: Northwest, southwest, southeast, the heights, and downtown Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Well today felt like the hottest day of summer for Houston, TX so far with tied records at most locations in Houston, TX, except for Hobby Airport that recorded a record high of 100 degrees. The temperatures although hot, look to be a little cooler over the next couple of weeks. I am hoping Houston, TX gets some rain, or something to cool these temperatures down real soon.

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