Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000 FXUS64 KHGX 122325 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 625 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021 .AVIATION... MVFR ceilings will persist overnight. Look for them to slowly lift & partially scatter during the morning and early afternoon hours Thurs from north-south. Most terminals should be VFR by late afternoon, though some thin cigs may linger closer to the coast. 47 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021/ SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday Night]... While overcast skies continue to hang around SE TX, shower activity has largely diminished behind the departing surface frontal boundary which has advanced well offshore during the day today. This should pave the way for a slight reprieve from the heat and humidity of late as north to northeasterly winds provide an influx of cooler and drier air to the region. Overnight, expect lows to dip into the upper 50s across the northern zones, near 60 in the Houston metro, and in the mid-60s along the coast. Low temperatures will be moderated slightly by continued broken to overcast skies, which will inhibit nocturnal radiative cooling. Thursday is shaping up to be a generally pleasant day as the aforementioned offshore flow pattern pushes dew points down into the 50s at most locations. The continued push of drier air will allow for some clearing, with clouds scattering out by the afternoon. Highs will be around 5-8 degrees below climatological norms, with most locations looking likely to stay in the upper 70s. Overnight lows will once again reach the 50s and 60s. Enjoy the low dew points while you can, because you might not see them again for quite some time! Cady LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]... Surface high pressure is still on schedule to move off to the east on Friday, and this will allow for an onshore flow to return to the area. Heading on into the weekend with southeast winds in place, look for an increase in temperatures (lows in the 60s Saturday morning and in the 60s/70s Sunday morning...highs back into the low to mid 80s) and an increase in moisture levels (precipitable water values back into a 1.50 to 2.00ish range). Look for the first in a series shortwaves over the weekend that will bring areas of rain back into the forecast. For the first half of next week, models are generally showing a slow moving mid/upper level low edging out of the Great Basin area and toward the Central Plains. This pattern will allow for more shortwaves and/or weak troughs to move across the state and bring our area periods of showers and possible thunderstorms. Look for forecast adjustments to be made to the rain chances over the next several days as models gradually come into better agreement. For temperatures, most locations will have lows in the 70s and highs in the 80s. With some luck, daytime rains could end up keeping highs in the 70s for some of the days, which is not a bad thing to happen for our area in the middle of May. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 58 75 59 80 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 61 78 61 81 65 / 10 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 66 78 69 78 72 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
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