Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000 FXUS64 KHGX 072347 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 647 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF ISSUANCE]... VFR conditions tonight across all TAF sites over SE Texas with S-SE winds at 5-10 KTS. There`s the potential for patchy fog overnight into early Sat morning for KCXO/KLBX, but wind speeds may limit or suppress it`s development for KLBX. Have kept the mention of MIFG for KCXO. Saturday, some fast moving light streamer showers could move through the area late morning into afternoon, but chances are very low thanks to the mid-upper riding in place. Thus, kept them out of this TAF package. S-SE winds Sat will strengthen to around 15 KTS with gusts up to 25 KTS possible. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021/ SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday Afternoon]... Southeasterly flow strengthening this afternoon and beginning to draw moisture back into the region from the Gulf. Cirrus will be streaming into and through the area tonight and then another round of cirrus moves into the area Saturday afternoon. But with the return flow underway expect to see winds relax early (2-5am Saturday) and the potential though slim for some patchy fog in the east and southwest areas until just after sunrise. With the moisture return should come a scattered to broken deck of shallow cumulus clouds by 7-10 am Saturday over the southwestern areas expanding northward and becoming breezy. An upper level shortwave trough moving into Colorado/Kansas Saturday afternoon should be noticeably strengthening the low level flow across SETX. 15 to 20 kt southerly winds and gusty should be on tap for Saturday after 10 am over the western half of the region and a little lighter in the east. Gusts of 25 to near 30 mph will be possible in the afternoon as LLJ from the Coastal Bend to eastern Oklahoma gets cranking. Strong capping should preclude any rain and warm temperatures in the mid-upper 80s will again be on tap. 45 LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]... Onshore flow increases Saturday night into Sunday as the surface high pressure continues to slide eastward. Meanwhile, an upper level low will be entering the Northern Rockies which will stall there through Monday night. A weak cold front associated with a low pressure system moving through the Midwest will approach the region from the north on Sunday morning, then stall across the northern third of the region through midweek producing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms for the region. The best chance of precipitation on Sunday will be north of Conroe where that boundary initially stalls. However, abundant moisture (PWATs will climb into the 1.7 to 2 inch range) will allow for the chance of showers anywhere across the area. SPC has areas north of Huntsville in a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms on Sunday with a Marginal Risk extending down to around I-10. There will be a decent cap in place on Sunday limiting storm development, but decent amount of shear will help support any storms the do happen to form with hail and strong winds being the main threat. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will again be possible on Monday as that boundary remains stalled near the area. A shortwave moving through Texas will help reinvigorate precipitation across the boundary on Tuesday leading to most likely the wettest day of the long term. Though Wednesday will try to take that title as the upper level low mentioned at the start of the discussion finally moves eastward across the Upper Midwest triggering precipitation down through Texas. This system`s associated cold front will push through the area sometime late Wednesday into early Thursday morning leading to a dry Thursday/Friday. Though with how messy the pattern is next week, I wouldn`t be surprised if that changes in the coming days. Temperatures through the long term will not fluctuate much Sunday through Wednesday thanks to persistent cloud cover with afternoon highs across the area climbing into the mid 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. The one caveat will be across Houston County that may get to tap into a little bit of the cooler air behind the stalled boundary cooling them by a few degrees respectively. The reinforcing cold front midweek will bring cooler, drier conditions for the region with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s after Wednesday with lows in the 60s. Fowler MARINE... Onshore flow will develop tonight and persist through midweek next week. Rip currents will be likely along Gulf facing beaches this weekend thanks to this persistent onshore flow. This persist flow will increase wave heights to four to six feet by Saturday afternoon, then further increasing to five to eight feet by Sunday afternoon most likely resulting in the need for caution flags. Wave heights will return back to three to five feet on Monday that persists through the week. A slow moving cold front will produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday through Thursday morning with the Tuesday and Wednesday having the best chance of precipitation over the waters. Fowler AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]... VFR through at least 09z. Some patchy fog possible at CXO/LBX but E and SE winds should continue to keep it well enough mixed that fog will probably be limited to an hour or two of MIFG if at all. Lower clouds should begin develop over the Gulf waters and spread into the area Saturday morning - as of now probably starting out around 3500 feet through at least late Saturday morning on gusty SSE winds. 45 HYDROLOGY... Lower San Bernard at Boling and Sweeney have fallen into minor flood levels and will continue a slow steady fall. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 63 86 72 87 72 / 0 10 10 40 30 Houston (IAH) 65 86 73 86 75 / 0 10 10 30 20 Galveston (GLS) 73 80 75 81 76 / 0 0 10 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Aviation...24
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