Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000 FXUS64 KHGX 062332 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 632 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF ISSUANCE]... VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Mostly clear skies with light and VRB winds expected tonight. There may a chance for some patchy fog to develop again over isolated areas in Brazoria, Matagorda and Jackson counties overnight and TEMPOs may be issued for KLBX. Winds will turn SE as the day progresses Friday and range between 5 and 10 KTS. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021/ SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]... Clear skies, high temperatures in the low 80s, and dew points in the mid to upper 50s lead to another fantastic, stunning, glorious, spectacular day across Southeast Texas. This is all thanks to a high pressure building to the north. This high pressure will slide eastward overnight tonight and be over the Central Gulf Coast on tomorrow leading to another pretty great day for the region. However, as the high pressure slides further east, it will induce a more southeasterly flow into the region increasing moisture into the region starting late Friday and into the weekend (but more on that in the long term below). No precipitation is expected through the short term. Temperatures tonight will drop to around 60 degrees across the region with areas along the coast and in urban areas staying in the mid 60s. Friday will see temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s across the region before falling down into the low to mid 60s again Friday night. Fowler LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]... Following Friday`s wind shift, a return to more summer-like humidity is expected on Saturday as moderate to strong southeasterlies offshore allow for a quick resurgence in surface dew points to around 65-70 degF during the afternoon. With afternoon highs remaining in the mid-80s, it will be decidedly less pleasant to be outdoors as heat indices approach 90 but precipitation should remain clear of the area (for the time being). Increasing cloud cover stemming from the aforementioned surface wind shift and enhanced (~30-35kt) low-level jet will keep overnight lows in the 70s at most locations, though record high minimums are unlikely to be threatened. A wetter period of weather will begin on Sunday as a deepening surface low across the North Central Plains drags a fairly robust cold frontal boundary through the middle third of the CONUS while the upper flow pattern becomes increasingly zonal. Global models continue to indicate this boundary stalling somewhere north of the Houston metro area by late Sunday, though the deterministic GFS continues to place it further north than the EC. Nonetheless, with a stalled front in place and PWs rising into the 1.5-1.75in range, and a series of passing disturbances embedded within the upper flow, this setup will prove favorable for the development of scattered showers and storms well into next week. In general, most locations can expect to see daytime highs around 5 degrees above normal (85-90 degF), overnight lows 5-10 degrees above normal (65-75 degF), and scattered to isolated precipitation through Tuesday. While the EC remains the wetter solution given its more progressive depiction of the stalled boundary, any prolonged heavy rain or flooding is not expected at this time. By the middle of next week, the aforementioned stalled boundary is expected to sag further southward and eventually push offshore, putting an end to the wet spell and allowing for a return of drier and more pleasant conditions. Highs on Wednesday/Thursday should return to slightly below seasonal norms (low 80s). Cady MARINE... Seas remain slightly elevated offshore this afternoon, which has prompted an extension of the caution for the offshore waters to the early evening hours. Winds and seas should begin to diminish as surface high pressure begins to drift eastward overnight, with this pattern shift eventually bringing about the return of onshore winds by tomorrow afternoon. Moderate to strong southeasterly winds will produce elevated seas on Saturday and Sunday, with wave heights reaching around 7 feet. Additionally, strong rip currents may be possible along Gulf-facing beaches. Any weekend beachgoers should closely monitor local conditions. As a surface cold front stalls to our north by late Sunday, periods of showers and storms are expected to persist well into next week. Cady PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1231 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021/... AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]... VFR conditions continue as high pressure slides to the north producing clear skies. Northerly winds today with become light and variable overnight with northeasterly to easterly winds starting tomorrow. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 60 86 62 86 72 / 0 0 0 10 10 Houston (IAH) 62 86 65 86 73 / 0 0 0 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 71 81 73 81 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Aviation...24
No comments:
Post a Comment