Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
000 FXUS64 KHGX 032313 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 613 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 .AVIATION... MVFR/IFR ceilings will spread northward across the area again this evening and on into the overnight hours. Will be monitoring the dryline area`s SHRA/TSRA, but our TAF site`s best chance of SHRA/TSRA is currently expected before or close to sunrise up north and then during the day further to the south in association with the cold front. With the frontal passage, winds will shift to the northwest and north. Improving ceilings look to come some time in the mid to late afternoon up north and late afternoon to evening hours further south. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021/ SHORT TERM [Tonight through Tomorrow Night]... Took a bit, but overnight low clouds, patchy morning fog/drizzle did clear out over most of SE TX, except for the immediate coast. And due to that, we have managed to warm up rather nicely across the CWA so far this afternoon (even with the strong south winds). The forecast calls for these winds to decrease through the over- night hours as the gradient weakens ahead of the cold front. The return of low clouds and possibly patchy fog/areas of drizzle is expected through sunrise. While a couple of the near-term models are hinting at isolated thunderstorms developing on the dry line, the impacts (if any) would be mainly over our W/NW counties late tonight. Otherwise, the better rain chances should be with/along the cold front itself. General consensus has this boundary close to CLL between 8-10AM tomorrow morning...IAH from 1-3PM and then to GLS from 4-6PM. Tomorrow`s daytime temperatures ahead of this front should be rather warm once again...with highs from the mid and upper 80s possible (mainly the southern half of the CWA). As cooler/drier air filters down into the area tomorrow night, lows in the 50s/low 60s are on tap. 41 LONG TERM [Wednesday through Monday]... Fairly nice wx is in store for the remainder of the work week. Surface high pressure behind Tuesday`s front edges off to east on Wed, but a reinforcing (dry) front/airmass will be filtering into the area Thurs. Lee side pressures fall going into the weekend allowing for a return of onshore winds and associated higher humidities & cloud cover. Pleasant lows in the 50s/60s Wed-Fri will climb back into the 70s over the weekend. Cannot rule out some iso diurnally driven shra, but better chances/coverage will likely hold off until Monday and early next week as a slow moving front moves southward into the region. 47 MARINE... Southeast winds and 3-5 ft seas should increase a bit later tonight. Will raise the caution flags for the 20-60nm waters, though wouldn`t be surprised if we see a couple hours of SCA criteria (20kt winds). Speeds should diminish Tue in advance of a cool front that`ll be moving off the coast in the late afternoon and early evening hours. A broken thin band of showers or tstms are possible along the wind shift. North winds will increase to around 20kt Tue night then gradually weaken and become ne thru the day Wed. A weak reinforcing front will filter into the area Thurs. High pressure will move off to the east Fri allowing onshore winds to resume. Winds/seas increase this weekend as the pressure gradient tightens. Suspect we`ll need a SCEC`s and/or SCA`s at some point. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 80 56 79 58 / 40 40 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 74 84 60 82 62 / 30 60 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 75 82 66 79 69 / 10 50 20 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands... Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands. GM...NONE. && $$
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