Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000 FXUS64 KHGX 052326 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 626 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF ISSUANCE]... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as SE Texas remains within an area of high pressure. Light N-NE winds tonight, increasing to 5-10 KTS Thu morning. Winds becoming NE-E Thu evening. SREF hinting at some light fog over Matagorda, Jackson and Harris counties early Thu morning, but prob is low and have kept it out for this TAF package. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021/ SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]... Today was an absolutely fantastic late-Spring day across Southeast Texas as high pressure provided ample sunshine, low humidity, and slightly below normal temperatures. These pleasant conditions will make a reappearance Thursday (albeit slightly warmer) as the high pressure dominates the weather. If you can, enjoy this weather while it lasts as these may be the last few days of pleasant conditions before the heat and humidity of summer arrives and overstays its welcome. No chance of precipitation through the short term. There may be some patchy fog in Jackson and Matagorda counties by daybreak tomorrow, but the air is dry enough that it shouldn`t be very dense nor widespread. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer than last night with minimum temperatures getting down into the mid 50s up north and low 60s along and south of I-10. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid 80s for much of the region with lows Thursday night being very similar to tonight. Fowler LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]... A period of warmer and wetter weather will begin on Friday as the dominant surface high over the Southern Plains departs to the east while zonal flow aloft gradually develops. This pattern shift will allow for the development of moderate to strong onshore winds as we head into the weekend, allowing for high temperatures to creep back towards the 90 degree mark. Perhaps the more noticeable impact of this pattern shift will be a sharp uptick in surface dewpoints, as a return to values in the vicinity of 70 degF by Saturday will make this week`s brief reprieve from the springtime humidity seem a distant memory. With cloud cover on the rise as well, overnight lows will venture back into the 70s at most locations. As total PW values approach 1.75in by Sunday morning, a few streamer showers may be possible, particularly in and around Galveston Bay. Heading into the beginning of next week, we enter into what looks to be a prolonged period of wet weather. A progressive surface low will drag a surface cold front across the Central and into the Southern Plains on Sunday. Global deterministic solutions continue to indicate that the advancing boundary will stall north of the area by late Sunday, with continued southerly winds providing ample moisture for shower and storm development. Have maintained chance PoPs from Sunday into Wednesday given the continued differences in global model solutions, with the EC remaining more aggressive compared to the GFS. In general, the warm temperature trend will continue throughout the remainder of the period with most locations seeing highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Cady MARINE... Winds and seas will continue to diminish throughout the remainder of the day, with conditions across the offshore waters expected to drop below caution criteria early this evening. Light east to northeasterly winds are expected through Friday, after which the departure of surface high pressure to the east will allow for a redevelopment of onshore winds. Wind speeds should reach advisory and/or caution criteria by Saturday, with seas building to around 4- 6 feet. Strong rip currents may also be possible along Gulf-facing beaches over the weekend, so those with plans to spend a day on the water should monitor local beach conditions. As a cold front approaches the Southern Plains by the end of the weekend and stalls to our north, periods of showers and storms will be possible well into next week. Cady PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1250 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021/... AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]... VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light to moderate north to northeasterly winds and mostly clear skies. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 57 84 59 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 62 86 62 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 80 70 81 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...24 Aviation/Marine...99
Air Quality Alert
TXZ213-237-238-313-337-338-437>439-061900- AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 156 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 ...Ozone Action Day for Thursday 5/6/2021... The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) has issued an Ozone Action Day for the Houston, Galveston, and Brazoria areas for Thursday, May 6. Atmospheric conditions are expected to be favorable for producing high levels of ozone pollution in the Houston, Galveston and surrounding areas on Thursday. You can help prevent ozone pollution by sharing a ride, walking, riding a bicycle, taking your lunch to work, avoiding drive through lanes, conserving energy and keeping your vehicle properly tuned. For more information on ozone: Ozone: The Facts www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/monops/ozonefacts.html EPA AIR NOW: www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&cityid=236 Take Care Of Texas: www.takecareoftexas.org/air/airquality $$Flood Warning
Flood Statement National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 859 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 ...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas... San Bernard River near Sweeny affecting Brazoria County. San Bernard River near Boling affecting Wharton, Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties. ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas... East Fork San Jacinto near New Caney affecting Harris, Liberty and Montgomery Counties. For the East Fork San Jacinto River...including New Caney...Minor flooding is forecast. For the San Bernard River...including Sweeny, Boling...Moderate flooding is forecast. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further updates. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov. The next statement will be issued Thursday morning at 900 AM CDT. && TXC201-291-339-061400- /O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-210506T1930Z/ /NCET2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.210503T1500Z.210506T0730Z.NO/ 859 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021 ...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early tomorrow afternoon... The Flood Warning continues for the East Fork San Jacinto near New Caney. * Until Thursday afternoon. * At 8:00 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 58.7 feet. * Flood stage is 58.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 8:00 PM CDT Wednesday was 60.9 feet. * Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage just after midnight tonight and continue falling to 49.4 feet Monday evening. * Impact...At 58.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding begins in the vicinity of the gage with minor roads such as Chinquapin and Riverside Roads beginning to flood. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 58.7 feet on 03/14/2012. && LAT...LON 3024 9515 3024 9504 3007 9510 3007 9520 3014 9517 $$
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