Wednesday, May 5, 2021

May. 5 21

 Area Forecast Discussion

Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS64 KHGX 052326
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

.AVIATION [00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as SE Texas
remains within an area of high pressure. Light N-NE winds
tonight, increasing to 5-10 KTS Thu morning. Winds becoming NE-E
Thu evening. SREF hinting at some light fog over Matagorda,
Jackson and Harris counties early Thu morning, but prob is low
and have kept it out for this TAF package. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021/

SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Today was an absolutely fantastic late-Spring day across
Southeast Texas as high pressure provided ample sunshine, low
humidity, and slightly below normal temperatures. These pleasant
conditions will make a reappearance Thursday (albeit slightly
warmer) as the high pressure dominates the weather. If you can,
enjoy this weather while it lasts as these may be the last few
days of pleasant conditions before the heat and humidity of summer
arrives and overstays its welcome.

No chance of precipitation through the short term. There may be
some patchy fog in Jackson and Matagorda counties by daybreak
tomorrow, but the air is dry enough that it shouldn`t be very
dense nor widespread. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly
warmer than last night with minimum temperatures getting down into
the mid 50s up north and low 60s along and south of I-10. High
temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid 80s for much of the
region with lows Thursday night being very similar to tonight.

Fowler

LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

A period of warmer and wetter weather will begin on Friday as the
dominant surface high over the Southern Plains departs to the
east while zonal flow aloft gradually develops. This pattern shift
will allow for the development of moderate to strong onshore
winds as we head into the weekend, allowing for high temperatures
to creep back towards the 90 degree mark. Perhaps the more
noticeable impact of this pattern shift will be a sharp uptick in
surface dewpoints, as a return to values in the vicinity of 70
degF by Saturday will make this week`s brief reprieve from the
springtime humidity seem a distant memory. With cloud cover on the
rise as well, overnight lows will venture back into the 70s at
most locations. As total PW values approach 1.75in by Sunday
morning, a few streamer showers may be possible, particularly in
and around Galveston Bay.

Heading into the beginning of next week, we enter into what looks to
be a prolonged period of wet weather. A progressive surface low will
drag a surface cold front across the Central and into the Southern
Plains on Sunday. Global deterministic solutions continue to
indicate that the advancing boundary will stall north of the area by
late Sunday, with continued southerly winds providing ample moisture
for shower and storm development. Have maintained chance PoPs from
Sunday into Wednesday given the continued differences in global
model solutions, with the EC remaining more aggressive compared to
the GFS. In general, the warm temperature trend will continue
throughout the remainder of the period with most locations seeing
highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Cady

MARINE...

Winds and seas will continue to diminish throughout the remainder of
the day, with conditions across the offshore waters expected to drop
below caution criteria early this evening. Light east to
northeasterly winds are expected through Friday, after which the
departure of surface high pressure to the east will allow for a
redevelopment of onshore winds. Wind speeds should reach advisory
and/or caution criteria by Saturday, with seas building to around 4-
6 feet. Strong rip currents may also be possible along Gulf-facing
beaches over the weekend, so those with plans to spend a day on the
water should monitor local beach conditions. As a cold front
approaches the Southern Plains by the end of the weekend and stalls
to our north, periods of showers and storms will be possible well
into next week.

Cady

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1250 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021/...

AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light to
moderate north to northeasterly winds and mostly clear skies.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      57  84  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              62  86  62  86  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            69  80  70  81  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...24
Aviation/Marine...99

Air Quality Alert

TXZ213-237-238-313-337-338-437>439-061900-

AIR QUALITY ALERT MESSAGE
TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
156 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...Ozone Action Day for Thursday 5/6/2021...

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) has issued an
Ozone Action Day for the Houston, Galveston, and Brazoria areas for
Thursday, May 6.

Atmospheric conditions are expected to be favorable for producing
high levels of ozone pollution in the Houston, Galveston and
surrounding areas on Thursday. You can help prevent ozone pollution by
sharing a ride, walking, riding a bicycle, taking your lunch to work,
avoiding drive through lanes, conserving energy and keeping your vehicle
properly tuned.

For more information on ozone:

Ozone: The Facts www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/monops/ozonefacts.html
EPA AIR NOW:
www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&cityid=236
Take Care Of Texas: www.takecareoftexas.org/air/airquality

$$

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
859 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

  San Bernard River near Sweeny affecting Brazoria County.

  San Bernard River near Boling affecting Wharton, Fort Bend and
  Brazoria Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  East Fork San Jacinto near New Caney affecting Harris, Liberty
  and Montgomery Counties.

For the East Fork San Jacinto River...including New Caney...Minor
flooding is forecast.
For the San Bernard River...including Sweeny, Boling...Moderate
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to
rising water and take all precautions to protect their property. Do
not drive or walk into flooded areas the depth and water velocity
could be too great for you to cross safely. Motorists should avoid
any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and
equipment should be removed from the flood plain immediately. Stay
tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further
updates.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Thursday morning at 900 AM CDT.

&&


TXC201-291-339-061400-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-210506T1930Z/
/NCET2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.210503T1500Z.210506T0730Z.NO/
859 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early tomorrow
afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the East Fork San Jacinto near New Caney.
* Until Thursday afternoon.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 58.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 58.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending
  at 8:00 PM CDT Wednesday was 60.9 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage just
  after midnight tonight and continue falling to 49.4 feet Monday
  evening.
* Impact...At 58.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding begins in the
  vicinity of the gage with minor roads such as Chinquapin and
  Riverside Roads beginning to flood.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 58.7
  feet on 03/14/2012.


&&

LAT...LON 3024 9515 3024 9504 3007 9510 3007 9520
      3014 9517

$$

No comments:

Post a Comment