Summary: cool, almost cold at times with the wind. Felt warmer by the evening and night. Low mostly grey with some white stratus clouds dominated most of the sky, during the morning, afternoon, and evening. High white, and thin stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, during the night. The wind speeds were light with moderate gusts, think. Kept my heater on all day. No rain that I know of anywhere in the Houston, TX area, during the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops.
Saturday, October 24, 2020
Oct. 23 20
Summary: The day started out mostly clear or maybe mostly cloudy, during the early morning, at my house in Copperfield. I drove through some moderately dense fog in the Cypress area, on my way to Spring to get my cars oil changed, during the mid-morning. The sky was cloudy or maybe mostly cloudy, when I arrived at the dealership in Spring and it had looked like a shower may have just passed through, during the mid-morning. The sky was mostly covered with white to grey low stratus clouds, on my way home from the dealership in Spring, during the late morning. Light to dark grey stratus clouds started to cover almost the whole sky, at my house in Copperfield, during the early afternoon. White to grey stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky and sometimes not much of the sky, during the rest of the day. The day started out warm and then became cool during the early afternoon and stayed cool through the night. The wind speeds were light wirh moderate gusts, especially after the cool front passed through. There were some strong gusts during the passing of the cool front, at my house in Copperfield, during the early afternoon. Light to moderate with some moderately heavy to maybe some heavy showers and thunderstorms were scattered across the Houston, TX area during the morning, afternoon, and maybe evening. I heard some low distant rumbles of thunder and some moderate rain fell with some strong 20 + mph wind gusts, at my house in copperfield, during 2 pm.
Thoughts: I had some pictures but they were having problems loading on to my chromebook.
Thursday, October 22, 2020
Oct. 22 20
Highway 6, Cooperfield, on my way to get a lug nut for my cars wheel, during the early morning.
290 West, near Katy and Cypress, TX, during the early morning.
Whataburger in the Heights area, during the early afternoon.
I-10 west on my way to Petsmart in Katy, TX, during the late evening.
Copperfield, at my house, during the early night.
Summary: It was foggy during the early morning. White and grey stratus clouds were scattered across the sky from the mid-morning through the night. There was a 30 to 40 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area. I did not see any rain. I did not hear about or see any rain anywhere in the Houston, TX area, during any time of the day. The wind speeds were light with moderate gusts. The day was warm. It looked like it wanted to rain where I work in the heights area, during the afternoon.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 230129 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 829 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 .SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday]... Warm evening to start with and southeast and east winds will continue as the cold front move into the farthestmost northern sliver of Texas around 6 pm with quite a dewpoint gradient. Overnight expecting SETX to stay on the warm and mild side with stratus clouds and fog developing. Very minor adjustments to the current forecast expected. The cold front should sweep through during the afternoon Thursday and be off the coast around 6-9 pm. Scattered showers possible ahead of the front near the coast in the afternoon then closer to the front and behind the front where the lift gets a tad stronger as straight jet exit region traverses teh area...an isolated thunderstorm will be possible but not very likely along the front. Winds get gusty in the wake of the front and temperatures fall post frontal passage. 45 && .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Mostly VFR across the area at 23z but going downhill quickly with MVFR in the southern areas seeing the SC/ST deck developing at 01z and should continue to expand first northwest then north. Winds decoupling and light/calm winds will likely bring another round of fog possibly dense after 3 am. IFR ceilings forming and again should persist through the 09-13z window. MVFR rising back to VFR by late morning before the cold front. A cold front moves through the area in the afternoon will usher in BKN 1500-2500 ft with patchy light rain and showers. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 359 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020/... .LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]... Nice wx anticipated behind the front Sat. Surface high pressure quickly moves off the the east Saturday night and southerly winds resume. Expect a gradual increase in moisture levels ahead of a cold front that`ll be moving into northern parts of the area Monday that will provide some iso/sct rain chances. Big question is when the colder push of air arrives...and when the boundary pushes off the coast. Initial wind shift will be shallow in nature...with a moist southerly flow overrunning the surface boundary. Several models have the surface front hanging up along the I-69/Highway 59 corridor (kind of similar to the first one of the season) for 24+ hours and not getting much in the way of colder air further s/se until the upper trof and H85 front makes some further e/se progression. Rain chances will likely continue and probably increase as this occurs. Potential exists for some substantial forecast busts in the Monday night-Thurs timeframe until we see a better model consensus and have more confidence which way to lean in regards to the timing and details. 47 .MARINE... Longer period swell will continue on a slow downward trend tonight and Friday. A weak cold front is still expected to move off the coast on Friday night. Speeds may approach caution criteria for a few hours in its wake. As high pressure behind the front moves off to the east, expect onshore to return to the area Saturday night and increase heading into Sunday night. A cold front is forecast to approach the coast early next week...but timing as to when it will push off the coast is still somewhat unclear. Could be one of those scenarios that we see a wind shift Monday night, but speeds and seas really don`t start increasing for another 24 hours or so until the push of colder air arrives. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 71 84 54 71 61 / 10 30 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 72 87 61 75 63 / 10 20 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 76 82 68 76 71 / 10 20 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...45 MARINE...33
Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Oct. 21 20
Early morning fog, in the heights area, on my way to my older sisters house to drop off my mom.
Late evening, I-10 west. On my way to my aunts house to check on her cats.
Late evening, at my aunts house in west Houston, TX.
Summary: The day started out with a moderate dense fog with some areas of Houston, TX getting a dense fog advisory for really thick fog, during the early morning. The fog dissipated during the mid-morning and the sky became mostly clear with white small stratus clouds scattered about. The small white stratus clouds stayed scattered across the sky through the rest of the day. The wind speeds were calm with some moderate gusts. The day was warm. There was no rain for the Houston, TX area, that I know of, during the day. I think the clouds actually looked thick enough to produce rain during the afternoon, maybe. I did not remember seeing, or feeling any rain drops., during any time of the day.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 220205 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 905 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020 .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]... Mostly clear skies at 9 am but by midnight expect a quick expansion of the ST and patchy fog to areas. A dense fog advisory will probably be needed sometime after midnight and though not that confident yet where...the Conroe/Angleton areas more likely than the CLL area but will likely let the mid shift delineate the specifics as it forms. A few degrees cooler tonight than last night but very little in the way of change expected Thursday. 45 && .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Haze near the coast looks to have mixed away and winds across the area relaxing. Expect MVFR deck to develop from around EFD southward through 05z then expand northward as patchy/areas of fog form under the clear skies and decoupled winds and IFR conditions to blanket the area by 09z followed by LIFR/VLIFR lowering of ceilings and visby. Between 14-16z improvement to MVFR then with further heating a rapid changeover to VFR before 18z. Isolated SHRA mainly BYY/LBX area southwestward mid morning through early afternoon. Repeat of the low ceilings/fog again Thursday night. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 320 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020/... .LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]... Continued onshore flood and warm, humid conditions expected Friday. Models fairly similar in bringing a cold front through from NW to SE Friday afternoon and night...accompanied by a wind shift and a slightly cooler less humid air mass behind the front for Saturday. Guidance has very little precip with this front...although cant rule out an isolated shower along or behind it. Return flow off the Gulf sets up Sunday afternoon...with a return to warm humid conditions Sunday night and Monday. Another potentially more significant front pushes through again from NW to SE. Models have been varying a great deal with this second front. GFS aggressively pushes it though and well offshore which would mean Fall like conditions for the entire area. However ECMWF stalls it near the coast...in fact keeping dewpoints in the 70s in Galveston all next week! Think the truth probably somewhere in between...more progressive than the EC...but not like the GFS...so have created the grids based on that idea...and have leaned on blends. Hopefully solution will firm up in the coming days...as still looking 5 to 6 days out or so. 18 .MARINE... High pressure situated across the eastern seaboard and lower pressure across the Yucatan will maintain an e/ne flow for the next few days. Longer period swell in place will likely peak overnight and slowly diminish thru the day tomorrow. A weak cold front will push into the waters late Friday night. However, the duration of offshore winds in its wake should be brief. High pressure will quickly move off to the east with onshore flow resuming Sat night. Beyond that, the primary question is if/when the next, potentially stronger, front moves into the area. There remains a split camp in the models - some depict Monday night & some don`t bring anything off the coast. 47 .FIRE WEATHER... Continued warm humid conditions expected next few days with no more than an isolated shower possible. Cold front will move through from NW to SE Friday afternoon or evening bringing a wind shift and slightly cooler weather for Saturday...but little or no rain. 18 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 87 68 86 58 / 0 10 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 71 85 71 87 65 / 0 20 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 75 82 75 83 71 / 10 10 0 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Thursday morning for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...45 MARINE...33
Tuesday, October 20, 2020
Oct. 20 20
Beltway 8 and I-10, on my way to work, during the early morning.
Tanner near Eldridge, on my way home from work, during the late evening.
Summary: White to grey stratus clouds were scattered across the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds were light with moderate gusts. The day was warm. There was 0 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area. Maybe a 20 percent chance for rain for some of the coastal areas. I did not see or hear about any rain anywhere in the Houston, TX area, during the day. I did not feel, or see any raindrops.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 202019 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 319 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020 .SHORT TERM [through Wednesday Night]... An area of deep low-level convergence has developed along the coast and into Chambers County today. This activity is also being triggered by low to mid level warm air advection. Instability remains from 5 to 7 C/km, therefore, storms have struggled to develop and has been isolated in nature. Additional showers with a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out along and east of I-45 through sunset. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient boundary layer moisture to allow for stratus and patchy fog development overnight into Wednesday morning. Fog should dissipate by early to mid morning as daytime boundary layer mixing occurs. Similar weather conditions are expected on Wednesday as warm south to east winds persist. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s. There is a slight chance for showers/storms during the day (mainly over Jackson, Wharton and Matagorda counties) thanks to daytime heating, low-level moisture and weak forcing traversing along the flow aloft. 05 .LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]... High pressure over the mid Atlantic and weak low pressure over the southern Gulf will allow for east winds on Wednesday and Thursday. It will remain warm and humid as 500 mb heights remain high and 850 mb temps remain near 18 C. The low level flow will become more NE on Friday as the weak and broad Gulf circulation moves north. A 1036 mb area of high pressure will push south late Friday and drive a cold front into and ultimately across the state. The surface high will weaken and this feature shifts more east than south Friday night but pressure rises behind the front look strong enough to drive the front into the coastal waters. Convergence along the boundary looks weak with surface winds already NE on Friday. The NE flow will also be a dry flow so moisture looks minimal with PW values below 1.35 inches. The front will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the area on Saturday. The respite from the unseasonably warm temperatures on Saturday will be short lived as onshore winds return by Saturday night and temperatures on Sunday will warm back up into the mid/upper 80s. By the beginning of next week, our attention remains on the approach of a second and stronger cold frontal boundary. The on again/off again cold front is on again with the GFS and ICON and off again with the ECMWF and the Canadian. The GFS solution brings a strong cold front through the area Monday night with much colder temperature filtering into the area with period of showers and embedded thunderstorms. The ECMWF doesn`t bring the cold front through 240 hours. The primary differences between the models appears to be how they resolve the 500 mb flow. The ECMWF/Canadian hold the upper trough well to the west while the GFS and ICON are more progressive with the upper trough and move it east by Wednesday night. Once the front is in the state on Monday night, the pressure rises in the TX panhandle look more than sufficient to drive the front southward and off the coast. At 12z Tuesday, mslp at KAMA will be around 1034 mb and at BRO, it will be around 1012 mb. Will lean toward the GFS/WPC solution but confidence remains low at this time. 43 .MARINE... Surface high pressure centered to our east will continue to bring onshore flow across our Gulf waters. Light easterly winds from 8 to 15 knots will persist through late Friday. Seas between 4 and 6 ft will continue through the end of the week across portions of the offshore waters. This may require caution flags across this region through late Thursday. Offshore flow returns on Saturday as a weak cold front moves through. Winds will shift back to the east- southeast Saturday night. 05 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 87 68 86 68 / 0 10 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 69 87 70 85 70 / 0 10 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 75 83 75 82 75 / 0 10 0 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
Monday, October 19, 2020
Oct. 19 20
My house in Copperfield, during the early morning.
Drove through a moderately showers at Beltway 8 and I-10, during the early morning.
Where I work in the heights area, during the early afternoon.
The heights area, getting cigarettes for my mom, during the late evening.
Summary: The day started out cloudy then became mostly cloudy, during the mid, or maybe late morning and stayed mostly cloudy, through the night. The wind speeds were light with moderate gusts. Light to moderately heavy and heavy showers and thunderstorms were scattered across the Houston, TX area, during the morning, afternoon, and maybe evening. I drove through a moderately heavy shower during the early morning, on my way to work. I heard distant rumbles of thunder from 1:30 to 3:00 pm with some light rain.
The day was warm.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 200032 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 732 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020 .SHORT TERM [Tonight through Tuesday]... Showers and isolated thunderstorms in the area have dissipated and focus shifts up to the stationary front just northwest of the CWA by a county. HRRR is very bullish on development on the boundary the next 3 to 4 hours...will leave in some slight chances for showers over the area from Caldwell to College Station to Crockett this evening but that is probably too generous. Skies should be a mix of partly cloudy early becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy. Warm night as WAA pattern remains in place and developing blanket of stratus helps to trap that heat. Tuesday looking more rain-free than today was as drier air intrudes and winds back slightly. 45 && .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Although it is VFR that will be fairly short lived as SC/ST deck develops this evening and expands northward. Expecting MVFR conditions beneath the stratus deck in the 1000-2000 foot range and highest confidence of MVFR conditions looks to be CXO-66R northward between 03-09z. The MVFR deck will also likely lower and near UTS/CLL and dip into IFR at least briefly in the 10-13z window there. Skies quickly scatter out around 14-15z and VFR should prevail. Tuesday night looking like we could see some MIFG/BR starting late in the evening with more favorable radiational cooling profile. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 327 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020/... .LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)... On Wednesday, the upper flow over Texas will be kind of flat as the region lies on the western periphery of an upper high over the eastern U.S. and a weak short wave over the western plains. At the surface, weak low pressure will be over the southern Gulf of Mexico and this feature will allow for onshore winds to persist. The air mass will remain humid so can`t rule out an isolated shower from time to time but the lack of a well defined boundary and upper level support should keep most areas dry. Not a lot of day to day change through the end of the week as temperatures remain 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal. A weak cold front will cross SE TX on Saturday but convergence along the front looks weak and PW values are meager, reaching only around 1.20 inches. Will keep the fropa dry for now but will watch trends as we near the end of the week. We should get a brief cool down on Saturday in the wake of the front with weak CAA but temperatures warm right back up again on Sunday as onshore winds return. Warm and humid conditions are expected Sunday and Monday as weak upper level ridging over the Gulf expands into Texas. Another cold front is expected to cross SE TX on Tuesday but both the GFS and ECMWF hang the upper level support to the west so the front will probably be a slow mover and the Canadian does not bring the front through until next Thursday. Ensemble guidance also seems to favor the slower solutions. 43 .MARINE... High pressure east of the region will allow for an onshore flow tonight. As weak low pressure develops over the southern Gulf, the flow between the high to the east and the low will allow for surface winds to back to the east and an east wind will then persist into Friday. A cold front will cross the coastal waters early Saturday and winds will back to the NE. High pressure building into the southern plains behind the front will move east very quickly and onshore winds will redevelop by late Saturday night. Onshore winds will then prevail through early Tuesday. Water levels could briefly reach 3.5 feet above MLLW on Wednesday as a persistent east wind brings slightly elevated water levels to the coast. Tides will probably remain near or just above 3.0 feet at high tide through the end of the week due to the persistent east wind. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 71 87 68 86 66 / 20 10 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 71 85 70 86 69 / 20 10 10 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 74 82 74 83 75 / 20 20 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...45 MARINE/CLIMATE/LONG TERM...41
Sunday, October 18, 2020
Oct. 18 20
White and grey stratus clouds were scattered across the sky with some occasional clearing. During the morning, afternoon, and evening. The sky looked to be mostly clear with still some possible small white alto stratus clouds, during the night.
Summary: I think there was a 20 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area, for the afternoon and evening. I did not see or hear about any rain falling over the Houston, TX area, but there may have been some small light showers. The wind speeds were light with moderate gusts. It felt cool during the early morning and a little cool during the mid-morning. It felt warm, during the late morning. evening, and night. It felt very warm, almost hot, during the afternoon.
Thoughts: It was my niece's birthday today. She was born today. This evening.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 190253 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 953 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020 .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]... A few showers offshore and quick increase in low level clouds across the area. Will probably see the development of streamer showers after 11 pm in the axis from well south of Galveston up through the I-45 corridor out ahead of the cold front tonight. Speaking of cold front it is passing through DFW at 9 am and should slow as it near the Corsicana/Waco area after 3 am. Currently expecting it to stall near College Station-Crockett late Monday morning/early afternoon. Some of the short term guidance showing it being more aggressive potentially near Houston late afternoon. At this point with the CAA being hampered in the afternoon have made some adjustments to afternoon highs Monday to bump them up a few degrees. Scattered showers should be common throughout the day and may have a few isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon out ahead of the boundary in the WAA pattern (if they can overcome the cap). 45 && .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR but may be short lived with development/expansion of MVFR ST deck that is racing north. Expect most TAF sites to be MVFR around 1500ft by 07-08z. This deck will likely persist into mid morning then heating/mixing beneath the cap should win out and go back to VFR. Cold front should bring variable winds/possibly northerly to CLL in the early afternoon. Scattered showers across the area warrants VCSH through the late afternoon hours. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 406 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020/... .LONG TERM [Tuesday through Sunday]... In a nutshell, the long-term forecast features above normal temperatures, chances for rain/storms and the potential for a cold front passage next weekend. A few disturbances embedded in the quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue to move across the area, bringing chances of showers and storms. It won`t be a complete washout, but enough for some isolated to perhaps, scattered precipitation at times. Onshore flow persists and will continue to bring a warm and moist Gulf airmass inland. Capping remains weak; therefore, decent instability and moisture will help to spark a few showers/storms along the coast in the morning and farther inland in the afternoon. An upper-level trough will develop over the Northern Rockies, dragging a cold front over TX Friday into the weekend. While deterministic models now are in better agreement on bringing this front at/close to our region; there are still discrepancies on its amplitude and phase. The EC brings the front close to our northwestern counties late Friday night, then moving through the Gulf waters on Saturday. The GFS suggests a slightly slower front, reaching the KCLL/KUTS region by Saturday morning. This front may not bring a significant change in temperatures, but at least, we will go back to seasonal temperatures and will have a relief in humidity. Given these solutions, the forecast from Friday night through Sunday is a blend between the GFS, EC and NBM to obtain temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and dewpoints from the upper 50s to upper 60s. While models are in good agreement, we are still a few days out, so confidence is still low to moderate. Temperature-wise, it will remain above normal throughout the week with forecast highs mainly in the 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. 05 .MARINE... High pressure over the eastern U.S. will maintain an onshore wind overnight. A weak cold front will move into SE TX on Monday but the front will stall out before reaching the coastal waters. The flow will weaken as the pressure gradient slackens. The front will dissipate and the pressure gradient will tighten again Tuesday and Tuesday night as pressures fall over West Texas. Winds will back to the east mid week as low pressure develops over the southern Gulf. An east wind will then persist through Friday night. A cold front is then expected to cross the coastal waters next Saturday. Water levels will remain slightly elevated this week with the persistent onshore flow. Tides could reach 3.4 feet above MLLW on Wednesday. There will also be a risk for strong rip currents as the winds back to the east. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 79 69 86 69 / 20 30 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 73 85 70 85 70 / 20 40 10 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 76 81 75 83 76 / 20 20 10 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...45 MARINE...41|
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