Sunday, October 18, 2020

Oct. 18 20

 

White and grey stratus clouds were scattered across the sky with some occasional clearing. During the morning, afternoon, and evening. The sky looked to be mostly clear with still some possible small white alto stratus clouds, during the night.

Summary: I think there was a 20 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area, for the afternoon and evening. I did not see or hear about any rain falling over the Houston, TX area, but there may have been some small light showers. The wind speeds were light with moderate gusts. It felt cool during the early morning and a little cool during the mid-morning. It felt warm, during the late morning. evening, and night. It felt very warm, almost hot, during the afternoon.

Thoughts: It was my niece's birthday today. She was born today. This evening.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 190253
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
953 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
A few showers offshore and quick increase in low level clouds
across the area. Will probably see the development of streamer
showers after 11 pm in the axis from well south of Galveston up
through the I-45 corridor out ahead of the cold front tonight.
Speaking of cold front it is passing through DFW at 9 am and
should slow as it near the Corsicana/Waco area after 3 am.
Currently expecting it to stall near College Station-Crockett late
Monday morning/early afternoon. Some of the short term guidance
showing it being more aggressive potentially near Houston late
afternoon. At this point with the CAA being hampered in the
afternoon have made some adjustments to afternoon highs Monday to
bump them up a few degrees. Scattered showers should be common
throughout the day and may have a few isolated thunderstorms
during the afternoon out ahead of the boundary in the WAA pattern
(if they can overcome the cap). 45

&&

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR but may be short lived with development/expansion of MVFR ST
deck that is racing north. Expect most TAF sites to be MVFR around
1500ft by 07-08z. This deck will likely persist into mid morning
then heating/mixing beneath the cap should win out and go back to
VFR. Cold front should bring variable winds/possibly northerly to
CLL in the early afternoon. Scattered showers across the area
warrants VCSH through the late afternoon hours.
45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 406 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2020/...





.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Sunday]...

In a nutshell, the long-term forecast features above normal
temperatures, chances for rain/storms and the potential for a cold
front passage next weekend.

A few disturbances embedded in the quasi-zonal flow aloft will
continue to move across the area, bringing chances of showers and
storms. It won`t be a complete washout, but enough for some isolated
to perhaps, scattered precipitation at times. Onshore flow persists
and will continue to bring a warm and moist Gulf airmass inland.
Capping remains weak; therefore, decent instability and moisture
will help to spark a few showers/storms along the coast in the
morning and farther inland in the afternoon.

An upper-level trough will develop over the Northern Rockies,
dragging a cold front over TX Friday into the weekend. While
deterministic models now are in better agreement on bringing this
front at/close to our region; there are still discrepancies on its
amplitude and phase. The EC brings the front close to our
northwestern counties late Friday night, then moving through the
Gulf waters on Saturday. The GFS suggests a slightly slower front,
reaching the KCLL/KUTS region by Saturday morning. This front may
not bring a significant change in temperatures, but at least, we
will go back to seasonal temperatures and will have a relief in
humidity. Given these solutions, the forecast from Friday night
through Sunday is a blend between the GFS, EC and NBM to obtain
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and dewpoints from the
upper 50s to upper 60s. While models are in good agreement, we are
still a few days out, so confidence is still low to moderate.

Temperature-wise, it will remain above normal throughout the week
with forecast highs mainly in the 80s and overnight lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s. 05


.MARINE...

High pressure over the eastern U.S. will maintain an onshore wind
overnight. A weak cold front will move into SE TX on Monday but
the front will stall out before reaching the coastal waters. The
flow will weaken as the pressure gradient slackens. The front will
dissipate and the pressure gradient will tighten again Tuesday
and Tuesday night as pressures fall over West Texas. Winds will
back to the east mid week as low pressure develops over the
southern Gulf. An east wind will then persist through Friday
night. A cold front is then expected to cross the coastal waters
next Saturday.

Water levels will remain slightly elevated this week with the
persistent onshore flow. Tides could reach 3.4 feet above MLLW on
Wednesday. There will also be a risk for strong rip currents as
the winds back to the east. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  72  79  69  86  69 /  20  30  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)          73  85  70  85  70 /  20  40  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)        76  81  75  83  76 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM/AVIATION...45
MARINE...41|

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