Thursday, October 22, 2020

Oct. 22 20

 

Highway 6, Cooperfield, on my way to get a lug nut for my cars wheel, during the early morning.
290 West, near Katy and Cypress, TX, during the early morning.
Whataburger in the Heights area, during the early afternoon.
I-10 west on my way to Petsmart in Katy, TX, during the late evening.
Copperfield, at my house, during the early night.

Summary: It was foggy during the early morning. White and grey stratus clouds were scattered across the sky from the mid-morning through the night. There was a 30 to 40 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area. I did not see any rain. I did not hear about or see any rain anywhere in the Houston, TX area, during any time of the day. The wind speeds were light with moderate gusts. The day was warm. It looked like it wanted to rain where I work in the heights area, during the afternoon.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 230129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
829 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday]...
Warm evening to start with and southeast and east winds will
continue as the cold front move into the farthestmost northern
sliver of Texas around 6 pm with quite a dewpoint gradient.

Overnight expecting SETX to stay on the warm and mild side with
stratus clouds and fog developing. Very minor adjustments to the
current forecast expected. The cold front should sweep through
during the afternoon Thursday and be off the coast around 6-9 pm.
Scattered showers possible ahead of the front near the coast in
the afternoon then closer to the front and behind the front where
the lift gets a tad stronger as straight jet exit region traverses
teh area...an isolated thunderstorm will be possible but not very
likely along the front. Winds get gusty in the wake of the front
and temperatures fall post frontal passage.

45

&&

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
Mostly VFR across the area at 23z but going downhill quickly with
MVFR in the southern areas seeing the SC/ST deck developing at
01z and should continue to expand first northwest then north.
Winds decoupling and light/calm winds will likely bring another
round of fog possibly dense after 3 am. IFR ceilings forming and
again should persist through the 09-13z window. MVFR rising back
to VFR by late morning before the cold front. A cold front moves
through the area in the afternoon will usher in BKN 1500-2500 ft
with patchy light rain and showers.
45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 359 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020/...





.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
Nice wx anticipated behind the front Sat. Surface high pressure quickly
moves off the the east Saturday night and southerly winds resume.
Expect a gradual increase in moisture levels ahead of a cold front
that`ll be moving into northern parts of the area Monday that will
provide some iso/sct rain chances. Big question is when the colder
push of air arrives...and when the boundary pushes off the coast.

Initial wind shift will be shallow in nature...with a moist southerly
flow overrunning the surface boundary. Several models have the
surface front hanging up along the I-69/Highway 59 corridor (kind
of similar to the first one of the season) for 24+ hours and not
getting much in the way of colder air further s/se until the upper
trof and H85 front makes some further e/se progression. Rain
chances will likely continue and probably increase as this
occurs. Potential exists for some substantial forecast busts in
the Monday night-Thurs timeframe until we see a better model
consensus and have more confidence which way to lean in regards to
the timing and details. 47


.MARINE...
Longer period swell will continue on a slow downward trend tonight
and Friday. A weak cold front is still expected to move off the
coast on Friday night. Speeds may approach caution criteria for a
few hours in its wake. As high pressure behind the front moves
off to the east, expect onshore to return to the area Saturday
night and increase heading into Sunday night. A cold front is
forecast to approach the coast early next week...but timing as to
when it will push off the coast is still somewhat unclear. Could
be one of those scenarios that we see a wind shift Monday night,
but speeds and seas really don`t start increasing for another 24
hours or so until the push of colder air arrives. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  71  84  54  71  61 /  10  30  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)          72  87  61  75  63 /  10  20  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        76  82  68  76  71 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM/AVIATION...45
MARINE...33

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