Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Jun. 11 18

Houston, TX radar, during the early morning.
Houston, TX radar, during the mid-morning.
Southeast Houston, TX, during the late afternoon, at the pet resort that I work for, I think.
West Park Tollway, I think, in , or maybe near west, or southwest Houston, TX, during the early evening, on my way to visit my friend at his house in Cypress, TX, from the pet resort that I work for in southeast Houston, TX.
Cypress, TX, I am pretty sure, during the early evening, still on my way to visit my friend at his house in Cypress, TX.
Houston, TX radar, during the early night.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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540
FXUS64 KHGX 120244
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
944 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Fairly quiet night is in store for the area. The previous forecast
appears to be on track, and only minor adjustments were made to
account for current observations.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018/

AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Storms over central Texas have dissipated so we will likely see
VFR conditions going into the overnight. Like last night there
will be a mix of MVFR/VFR decks beginning 07-09Z mainly for
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO and perhaps KIAH/KSGR. KLBX may also have some
higher MVFR ceilings but could be more transient. Upper level
short wave trough over the area now should weaken and combine with
a broader trough over the Gulf. Overall think this will limit the
chances for convection with large scale lift decreasing and
moisture looks to decrease as well with PWAT dropping to below 1.5
inches by tomorrow evening. There still may be some 20 knot wind
gusts tomorrow afternoon but likely just fair weather cumulus.

Overpeck

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018/...

DISCUSSION...
Status quo through mid week with all eyes on the extended forecast
this weekend. Whatever evolves out of the Caribbean sea looks to
bring increased moisture and rain chances to the region into early
next week.

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Convection is struggling to maintain itself over the Piney Woods,
likely owing to the presence of a capping inversion located between
800-750 MB on aircraft soundings out of Houston. Afternoon visible
satellite does show some enhancement in altocumulus over Central
Texas, likely enhanced by a compact shortwave trough drifting
towards the ArkLaTex. Will need to keep an eye on this activity
heading into the evening hours as high resolution guidance is
attempting to bring at least decaying remnants of this activity
into the Brazos Valley as it appears to be forced at a level above
the capping inversion and should be unaffected by the cap. Cannot
rule out a quick shot of rain for a few lucky folks through early
evening as a result, but dry conditions will be the rule for most
this evening.

Isentropic upglide will again produce periods of low stratus
overnight across the region, helping to keep overnight lows in the
mid 70s to lower 80s. Despite lighter southerly surface winds
tonight, near surface winds in the 15-20 knot range should provide
enough mechanical mixing to mitigate against light fog outside of
sheltered or low-lying areas.

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
More of the same Tuesday into Thursday with warm and humid
conditions holding each day, with a slight chance of afternoon
showers/thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly sunny skies
will once again bring sufficient mixing to support generally 10-15
mph onshore winds which will help the afternoon heat somewhat.

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
As a plume of tropical moisture overspreads the region, chances
for some much needed rain will increase late this week and
increase further into early next week. Much of this depends on
the evolution of tropical wave being monitored by NHC for possible
development over the next 5 days as it moves across the Caribbean
and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Currently NHC has a low
probability (20% chance) of a distinct surface low
forming/closing-off, although models show more agreement in
influx of deep moisture and increasing rain chances over se TX,
specifically Sunday into Monday. Clouds and rain chances will
lower temps a bit in the extended at least.

MARINE...
Persistent onshore flow will support maintaining exercise caution
wording for offshore waters with slightly elevated winds/seas
through daybreak tomorrow. We should see onshore winds gradually
diminish into the mid-week. In the later periods, mostly Friday
through the weekend, we could see conditions gradually worsen with
increased long-swell and rain/tstm chances. Details of these
conditions will depend on how anything develops in the
southern/western Gulf this weekend.

TROPICAL...
Not a whole lot to add here, although all eyes are monitoring the
disturbed area moving across the Caribbean sea early this week, as
highlighted by latest 5 day graphical outlook from NHC (20%
probability of development in next 5 days). Considerable
uncertainty remains at this time with this `system` given lack of
any real consensus of a closed low forming in the operational
models. However, more there is a more consistent signal bringing
a fetch of deep moisture and increase in offshore winds across
the western Gulf this weekend. Therefore, rainfall chances are
increasing Sunday into Monday- some of which could be heavy. The
details are too murky to have any confidence in specifics given
the extended range of these possible impacts, however.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  96  73  94  73 /  20  10  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              78  95  75  92  75 /  10  20   0  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            83  91  82  86  81 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for the
     following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
     Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...11



Locations: Northwest, southwest, southeast, and maybe west Houston, TX, Katy, TX, Fulshear, TX, and Cypress, TX.


Thoughts: The day was sunny, mostly cloudy, dry, and hot. There is some rain in the forecast for the Houston, TX area, late this week. I am hoping to see some more rain. Summer time rain is one of my favorite types of weather. Especially since it cools things down.

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