Monday, August 6, 2018

Aug. 5 18

Houston, TX radar, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning, on my way to the pet resort that I work for in southeast Houston, TX, from where I live in northwest Houston, TX.
529 west, during the early afternoon, on my way to where I live in northwest Houston, TX, from the pet resort that I work for in southeast Houston, TX.
The Galleria area, during the mid-afternoon, on my way to groom a cat in mid-town, from where I live in northwest Houston, TX.
Westhiemer east, during the late afternoon, still on on my way to groom a cat in mid-town, from where I live in northwest Houston, TX.
Westhiemer west, during the early evening, on my way to where I live northwest Houston, TX, from where I tried to groom a cat in mid-town.
At a Five Guys on Westherimer, during the early evening.
Houston, TX radar, during the early night.
Houston, TX radar, during the late night.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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413
FXUS64 KHGX 060120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
820 PM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

.AVIATION...

Showers dissipating inland although a few are developing over the
Gulf waters and spreading toward the GLS/coastal areas.
Development over the Gulf tonight and anticipate that showers
will continue throughout the night and increase in coverage toward
morning. This in turn should increase the rain chances near GLS
in the morning and will carry VCSH 09z through 21z. Further inland
tonight expect VFR conditions as clouds mid/high dissipate. Some
patchy fog possible but confidence is low for it to develop with
impacts at any of the TAF sites. During the mid to late morning
hours convective temperature should be reached and with persistent
east-southeast to southeasterly flow should maintain potential
for scattered showers and thunderstorms through mid afternoon. S/W
tracking down from OK/AR should move into the area late in the
afternoon and given it`s track could help to lessen activity late
afternoon. 45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over the
central CWA and then dissipating fairly quickly. Slight ridging at
mid levels appears to be limiting the scope of convective
development, so have dialed back POPs for today to 30. A greater
chance returns tomorrow for convection as early morning surface
convergence and a moist airmass begin convective initiation in the
early morning. CAMS suggest coverage fills in as we continue
throughout the day Monday, so kept POPs higher near 50 due to
outflow interaction with the sea breeze likely keeping several
rounds of convection through the early evening.

A weak jet streak passing over the Texas coast on Tuesday should
keep the thunderstorm activity fairly widespread in the morning
and afternoon. Most areas east and south of I-45 and I-10,
respectively, should see rain at some point or another in the next
several days. Convective cirrus from these storms, as well as the
moist airmass, will help keep temperatures near climatological
average with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
Upper level ridging builds into Texas during the mid week, but
remains centered just to the northwest of the CWA. The airmass at
the surface will be moist enough that so long as the ridging aloft
does not result in too much capping, diurnal showers and
thunderstorms along the land/sea breeze are possible through the
week.

Models are still in poor agreement for the weather pattern near
the end of the week. The GFS remains the outlier, building an
upper level ridge over the Southern US. This ridge would then
block the progression of an upper level trough trying to dig into
Texas. Both the ECMWF and Canadian models agree that the trough
should be able to successfully dig into the Southern Plains, thus
leading to a wetter and cooler end to this week. Have continued to
trend toward the wetter ECMWF/Canadian solution, so all eyes will
be on whether or not the associated surface boundary will be able
to progress through Southeast Texas. Depending on where this axis
sets up, several rounds of heavy rain are possible.

22

MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern US and lower pressure over the
western high plains will maintain an onshore flow through the
first half of next week. Beach Patrol reported strong rip currents
this morning and will continue the rip current statement today
and will re-evaluate on Monday. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are likely with winds and seas temporarily higher
near any stronger storms.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      74  95  76  97  76 /  10  30  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  20  50  10  40  10
Galveston (GLS)            81  87  81  88  81 /  30  50  20  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
604 AM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

TXZ213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>438-061115-
Brazoria Islands-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-
Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Fort Bend-
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-Inland Brazoria-
Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-
Matagorda Islands-Southern Liberty-Wharton-
604 AM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop later
this morning and early afternoon. Some storms could produce funnel
clouds and waterspouts along the coast.

Heat indices this afternoon are expected to be in the mid to upper
90s. Please use caution if working outside.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Weak short lived funnel clouds and waterspouts will be possible
through the early afternoon on Monday. Their features are
difficult to detect with radar and could form and dissipate in a
matter of minutes. If the funnel extends to the ground, it will
become a tornado capable of producing minor damage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$


Locations: Northwest, southwest, southeast, west, mid-town, 
the heights, and downtown Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Well the forecasted rain never came. (except for maybe a few locations in the Houston, TX area.) The mostly cloudy skies helped to cool temperatures down alot.

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