Notes: The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate to strong gusts. Big to small, flat, puffy stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe early night. The sky looked to have become clear during the early night. It felt warm during the morning, evening, and night. It felt very warm, maybe even hot at times, during the afternoon. There was no rain anywhere in, or near Houston, TX, that I know of. I didn't see any rain on the radar when I looked during the afternoon. This was my observation of the weather that occurred in west Houston, TX, where I was during the day.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 190123 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 823 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .DISCUSSION... The combination of onshore winds and an increasingly moist airmass has led to the formation of isolated showers off of the coast early this evening. Model sounding forecasts show the best potential off of the coast this evening and into the coastal counties after midnight. The Texas Tech WRF and the RAP13 both agree with this scenario while the HRRR has the rainfall potential increasing over the coastal counties toward sunrise. Revised the rain chances for this evening and overnight tonight. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/ AVIATION... Generally VFR conds expected for this evening but clouds are expected to begin to develop after 06z over the NW-N TAF sites. A surge of slightly deeper moisture. Could see some showers begin to develop near KGLS and KLBX prior to sunrise as a narrow convergent zone develops near the coast. Think potential for showers will exist on Wed aftn as PW values increase to 1.60 inches. Both the RAP and the TT WRF show scattered showers across much of SE TX. Will be watching short term model trends and might be adding a VCSH with the 03z update. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/ DISCUSSION... Another day of unseasonably warm weather expected tomorrow before the arrival of the cold front on Thursday. We have already tied a record this afternoon (GLS) and are close to another (CLL). As it stands...records most likely to be reached/exceeded tomorrow will be HOU/GLS. (see below) No significant changes with the overall forecast as models remain in fairly good agreement with the upcoming pattern shift. Weaken- ing/eastward shifting upper ridge will allow for the passage of a deep longwave trof Weds/Thur. This will then help to drag a long- awaited cold front into/across the state Thur. The NNW flow aloft in the wake of the front is then progged to segue into broad upp- er level ridging by the weekend. Will have to keep an eye on this pattern as the new week starts as there are hints (via ECMWF) the ridge will be short-lived with the development/passage of a fair- ly well-defined shortwave moving in from the CA Baja region. Will this herald a more active pattern for next week? Long-range progs from GFS (of a strong upper low/trof deepening just off the sout- hern CA coast and its subsequent SW flow aloft here) seem to con- trast sharply with the ECMWF extended patterns (of strong ridging over the state). Hmmm. Upcoming runs should be interesting. 41 High Temperature Records TODAY 10/18 WEDS 10/19 CLL 92-2004 97-1921 IAH 96-1895 94-2004 HOU 94-1947 90-2004 GLS 87-2007 86-2004 MARINE... Tides are still running about a foot above normal. Will probably see water come up to or slightly over the Highway 87 @ Highway 124 intersection between 5-10pm this evening and again Wed (around times of the the more significant high tides). Doesn`t appear any other locations should see any substantial issues. Southerly to southeasterly flow of around 10-15kt is forecast to persist for the next couple of days. A cold front will push off the coast on Thursday, with northeasterly winds increasing to around 20-25kts and seas reaching 6 to 8 feet in the offshore waters overnight Thursday night. Winds will gradually shift onshore and weaken as seas slowly subside throughout the weekend. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 92 70 79 55 / 10 20 30 40 10 Houston (IAH) 71 91 71 85 57 / 10 20 30 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 87 77 83 65 / 20 30 30 50 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...40 Aviation/Marine...43
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