Sunday, February 11, 2018

Feb. 10 18


Houston, TX radar, during the early morning.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
West Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
The heights area of Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
El Gato Cat Cafe in the heights area of Houston, TX, during the early evening.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Houston, TX radar, during the late night.
West, or maybe northwest Houston, TX,during the late night.


Locations: Northwest, west, and the heights area of Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Heavy showers and possible thunderstorms during the early morning, followed by scattered light to moderate showers with some moderately heavy showers, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and early night. The rain looked to have stopped when I looked at the radar, during the late night. The day was warm during the morning and afternoon. It started to feel cool, during the evening and then it felt cold, during the night. Some minor flash flooding in the Houston, TX area, during the early morning. No storm damage.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 110552
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018


.AVIATION...
Cold front nearing GLS at 1130z per radar. Patchy light
drizzle/rain near the coast with showers and a thunderstorm or two
over the waters.
Widespread LIFR/VLIFR across most of the region in the wake of
the cold front. Fog still ongoing with visibilities of 1-3 miles
being common. Throughout the night guidance appears to keep the
ceilings down with minimal drying mainly just cooling with CAA.
Upglide atop this cold layer will continue through Tuesday...slow
improvement in the ceilings throughout the day just an overall
slow increase in ceilings...300-800 feet increase from sunrise.
We should reach MVFR 1000-1500 feet around 13-16z for most sites
except near the coast. As s/w approaches mid Sunday morning
through mid afternoon anticipate patchy light rain to develop and
overspread the region. Some concern for freezing drizzle around
CLL 12-15z with surface temperatures dipping AOB freezing. Slow
rebound in temperatures Sunday.
45

&&

.MARINE...
Dense fog looks to finally be vacating the bays but will linger
for a few more hours in the nearshore waters. Winds should come up
after 3 am and by 6 am winds will be flirting with SCA so have
hoisted those flags.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...

While the strong cold front is nearly to the coast this evening,
we are still seeing some light rains in its wake across central
portions of the CWA. The bulk of the stronger precip (including
thunderstorms) are offshore and moving off to the E/NE. Colder/
slightly drier air will continue to filter down from the Plains
overnight with temperatures falling to near freezing across our
northern tier of counties. A second/strong shortwave is progged
for the early morning hours and this pattern is favoring a very
brief period of freezing drizzle (if enough moisture remains in
the area). No changes for this part of the forecast with the up-
date but did tweak POPS/WX grids a bit overnight to account for
the ongoing trends. 41

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 403 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/

Light shower activity over the southeastern forecast area leading
an approaching cold front now moving across the northwestern
forecast area. Temperatures will swiftly fall with the boundary
passage...quite the temperature gradient with this strong front.
Lower 40s across the far northwestern counties with lower 70s in
and around Houston at 3 PM...or a 30 degree delta across 80 miles
or so. This front is moving a touch faster than anticipated and
should be pushing off the coast late this evening. Short range
guidance just shows very light precipitation over the area...more
focused over the southern CWA and maritime through the evening
with more widespread light precipitation occurring further inland
through Monday morning. Western Gulf jet stream (LFQ) positioning
with weak shortwave ripples moving up the coastline within the
southwesterly flow aiding in keeping more southern third CWA -shra
activity alive through a (becoming) cold and overcast Sunday.
This very cold air mass is very shallow...hugging the ground as it
makes its way southward and it will remain this way through the
short term. Thus...any overrunning light precipitation (drizzle,
very light showers) will likely remain liquid as it falls through
this very shallow (near) freezing layer on its way to the surface.
There will be a brief window from around sunrise through 9 or 10
AM in which there may be cold enough surface temperatures of
around freezing to support a wintry mix or freezing drizzle. No
accumulations of ice are anticipated and this near-surface sub-
freezing layer should dry and warm up through the late morning
thus ending any minor threat for northern county winter weather.

It will be a cold and overcast Sunday with little range between
Sunday`s minimum temperature and the maximum temperature. Readings
in the 30s and 40s are expected to remain steady or fall through
the day. There will be little to no sun through the medium and
long range forecast period. Reasoning is that Texas will fall on
the northwestern edge of a developing Gulf upper ridge and this
will provide the needed mid-upper level southwesterly flow over
top a cooler lower level easterly wind pattern. This will create
a warm air advection/overrunning scenario that will keep many
mid February days and nights overcast. Slight to low end rain
chances early to mid week from weak disturbances riding up along
the western periphery of the aforementioned ridge and moving into
greater than 1.3 inch pwat air...well above normal moisture levels
for this time of year. Despite the overcast...onshore winds by
mid-week spell a mid to late week warm up back into the 70s/morning
60s. The next significant chance for precipitation (showers/isolated
storms) comes a week from now with a weekend cold frontal passage.
31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      32  40  34  55  45 /  20  20  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)              45  45  40  56  49 /  30  30  30  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            51  51  45  55  52 /  30  30  40  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Sunday afternoon for
     the following zones: Galveston Bay.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
501 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-111115-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
501 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rainfall will be possible this morning mainly south of a
Livingston to Conroe to Edna line. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches with isolated 4 inch amounts will be possible. Main impacts
will be localized street flooding on major roads and highways,
feeder roads and intersections.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A strong cold front will push through Saturday night into Sunday
with temperatures falling through the day. No hazardous weather is
expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

$$

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