Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.
Thoughts: The sky stayed mostly cloudy. No known precip for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. Maybe some very isolated light showers. I think I felt a few drops of precip. The day was cool with lows in the 40's and highs in the 50's.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 030359 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 959 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2018 .UPDATE... Regional moisture levels are beginning to creep up upon low level easterly veering southeasterly winds. As a nearshore warm front moves onshore tomorrow...near 0.6 inch pw air will moisten up into the 1.2 to 1.3 inch range by tomorrow afternoon. Lower level southeasterlies pulling in a more moist western Gulf air mass...with a passing early Saturday shortwave disturbance within the the mid to upper level southwesterly flow...will increase Saturday`s POPS to likely. A passing NW Gulf low level low will aid in pulling the coastal warm front inland and thus providing the impetus (along with the passing shortwave) in producing light rain or showery Saturday weather. Tomorrow`s skies will remain overcast and cool with morning lower to middle 40s slowly warming into the average lower to middle 50s by mid-day. An increased probability for areas of Saturday night and Sunday morning dense sea fog that will advect inland early Sunday. Damp ground and partially clearing skies and weakening southwesterly winds will increase the probs for more inland early Sunday fog. The bulk of the light precipitation should transition east by the late afternoon hours...subsidence in the wake of the early day shortwave`s eastern exit should aid in drying the region out through the afternoon into evening hours. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2018/ AVIATION... VFR ceilings will persist through the late evening hour. But flying conditions should gradually deteriorate toward morning and through the day tomorrow as a warm front starts lifting north and upper level disturbances move in from the southwest. The combination of the two will lead to periods of rain, drizzle, fog and lowering ceilings. Conditions will first trend into MVFR territory in the morning...probably trending toward IFR conditions closer to the coast as the day progresses. Precip should taper off in the late afternoon and early evening as the disturbances move off to the east, but would anticipate continued, if not worsening conditions as fog sets in Sat night. 47 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2018/ A rather active weather pattern for SE TX is expected through this forecast cycle...featuring the southern stream jet, coastal trofs, upper level disturbances and at least a couple of cold fronts. Starting tonight, rain chances will be on the increase from the SW as coastal trof develops near the lower TX coast and then helps to focus low-level moisture in that region. This system to deepen and evolve into an area of weak low pressure with a warm front extend- ing up the coast. This front will bring much warmer/moist air into SE TX early Sat. This combined with the an upper level disturbance approaching from the west to produce scattered/numerous showers... and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two through the day on Sat. The progged PWs of 1.2 - 1.5 inches also supports the idea of some locally heavy rains embedded within all of this precipitation. The best rain chances should be over the southern and eastern portions of the CWA. Rain chances will drop off Sat night as these features move off to the E/NE. However, the increased moisture along with a return of onshore winds should create favorable conditions for fog and sea fog from overnight Sat through Sun. Warm temperatures progged for Sun afternoon...but cooler/drier air will be filtering into the area Sun night in the wake of an almost backdoor cold front from the ENE. Cool with cloudy skies (courtesy of the persistent zonal/slightly southwesterly flow aloft) expect- ed for Mon. However...rain chances are progged to return late Mon/ Tues as another upper trof digging south in the lee of the Rockies helps to deepen the SW flow aloft and drags another disturbance in from the SW. Long-range guidance indicating some rather healthy PW values surging in from the Gulf (ranging from 1.4 - 1.7 inches) at this time. This along with the progs of a persistent SW flow aloft should help to keep a mention of low POPS in for most of next week. 41 MARINE... Winds and seas should continue to decrease this evening and tonight which should bring an end to the advisory. Winds may linger around 15 knots as they turn from northeast to southeast tomorrow. A warm front should move across the waters tomorrow allowing for a chance of showers. Sea fog may be a possibility as dewpoints increase to the low 60s and water temperatures are in the 50s. Sea fog may linger through Sunday night as a weak front pushes off the coast by Monday morning. Winds quickly turn to the southeast Tuesday with another cold front expected Wednesday morning. Other than possible dense fog advisories, it will not be until the mid week front that conditions support small craft advisories. Overpeck && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 58 43 58 50 74 / 10 10 50 10 10 Houston (IAH) 60 44 57 53 74 / 10 20 70 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 59 48 59 56 68 / 20 30 70 30 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 2 AM CST Saturday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CST Saturday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...31
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