Sunday, February 4, 2018

Feb. 3 18

Houston, TX radar, during the early morning.
Houston, TX radar, during the mid-morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late morning.
Tomball, TX, during the late morning.
Houston, TX radar, during the late morning.
North Houston, TX area radar, during the early afternoon.
Houston, TX radar, during the early evening.


Locations: Northwest, North, and the Heights area of Houston, TX. The Woodlands, TX, Spring, TX, and maybe Conroe, TX, and Klien, TX.


Thoughts: Scattered light to moderate showers and light to moderate dense fog surrounded the Houston, TX area, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The day was cool and cloudy with low's and highs in the 50's. 


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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849
FXUS64 KHGX 032333
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
533 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018

.AVIATION...
Precip in the process of exiting the region to the east. However,
ceilings and visibility will continue to diminish in its wake.
Expect a mix of IFR/LIFR conditions until late Sunday morning. A
weak front will bring a bit of drier air and mix the llvls out and
transition things back into VFR territory between 18-21z. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018/
A forecast that is neither dramatic, nor terribly quiet. Today
looks fairly dreary, but should clear out tomorrow with warming
ahead of a weak cold front. Look for another cold front to come
through midweek with some rain chances and potentially a
thunderstorm, then a more dynamic front at the end of the week,
which has a little better shot of bringing some heavier rain with
it. May have to keep an eye on rainfall potential with this one,
but for now there doesn`t appear to be enough "juice" in the
atmosphere to cause any substantial issues.

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The radar shows scattered, light showers across much of the area,
though our western edges look like the back edge of those showers
are beginning to arrive. Water vapor shows dry air and/or subsidence
expanding north as the morning`s shortwave exits, and so rain up
there should continue to draw down. Showers near the coast may
linger into the early evening while another subtle shortwave works
through, but it shouldn`t linger too late.

Later tonight, expecting some fog to crop up, particularly over the
waters (see marine section to come shortly) and near the coast.
However, continuing moisture and whatever may still be on the
ground from rain today will help contribute across much of the
area. Could be some potential for dense fog, and the HRRR buys
fully into this idea and crushes Southeast Texas with low
visibilities. But thinking that winds will stay up enough to
promote a little more mixing and keep that from happening, and
keep only patchy fog in the forecast for now.

Perhaps the more interesting part about tonight will be
temperatures, which are likely to hold roughly steady or even
increase tonight as warm air advection kicks in, and 850 temps
increase from 7-10C to 15-17C. Continuing clouds should also help
this trend as clearing isn`t expected to come until tomorrow.

SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Sunday looks considerably warmer with clearing skies through the
day. This should be a pretty brief warmup as this comes along with a
very weak cold front that will knock temperatures back into the 60s
for highs on Monday along with increasing clouds and some small rain
chances, particularly on Monday night once winds have turned onshore
and we see a bit of isentropic lift. Along with the turn to onshore
flow, we should see dewpoints increase, and as boundary layer warmth
improves, a bit of instability may emerge. It`s not progged to be a
lot, but may be enough to squeak out a rumble or two of thunder
before daybreak, with the best chances near the coast. The surge in
dewpoints will also keep Monday night lows up.

LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Look for shower and thunderstorm potential to continue through the
day Tuesday and into Tuesday night as the next cold front pushes
its way in. Not expecting a ton of action as the setup with the
upper trough and jet is a bit awkward, and the best instability
looks to be to our east, making significant weather more of a
threat there.

After the front, we should dry out and see temps take a dive for a
couple days, with highs in the 50s and lows that may flirt with
freezing well north of Houston Wednesday night into Thursday. For
Friday, we`re looking for another brief warmup into the 60s, but
will be chopped down by yet another front Friday night or Saturday
morning.

This next front looks more dynamic, and the Euro hints at some
heavier rain potential, while the GFS again focuses to our east.
At this time it doesn`t appear to be a real big hassle, but could
bring an inch or so of rain around and east of Highway 59.
They key limiting factor to anything significant appears to be
precipitable water given a limited time to recover after the
midweek front, only reaching to about 1.5 inches and fairly modest
instability again. As long as that scenario holds, not too much to
this front either - but some localized issues may develop in the
easternmost portions of the area should those parameters end up
being of better quality.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      52  72  48  64  58 /  10   0  10  20  40
Houston (IAH)              53  71  51  63  58 /  10  10  20  20  30
Galveston (GLS)            57  67  53  61  59 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CST Sunday for
     the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-041245-
Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Harris-Houston-
Liberty-Madison-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-
Washington-Wharton-
636 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers will be possible today. Rainfall will be less
than a half inch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$



Dense Fog Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
900 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018

...Dense Fog Advisory is in Effect...

.The combination of a damp ground and weakening winds...as warm
and moist air comes onshore...has created an environment conducive
to the formation of dense inland fog this evening. Dense fog is
expected to persist through the mid Sunday morning hours.

TXZ200-210>214-226-227-235>238-041600-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FG.Y.0004.180204T0300Z-180204T1600Z/
Austin-Brazoria-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-Galveston-Harris-
Jackson-Liberty-Matagorda-Waller-Wharton-
Including the cities of Alvin, Anahuac, Angleton, Bay City,
Bellville, Brookshire, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Eagle Lake,
Edna, El Campo, Freeport, Friendswood, Galveston, Hempstead,
Houston, Humble, Katy, Lake Jackson, League City, Liberty,
Missouri City, Mont Belvieu, Palacios, Pasadena, Pearland,
Pierce, Prairie View, Richmond, Rosenberg, Sealy, Sugar Land,
Texas City, Tomball, Weimar, Wharton, and Winnie
900 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2018

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Dense Fog Advisory, which is in effect until 10 AM CST Sunday.

* EVENT...Widespread Dense Fog.

* TIMING...Through early Sunday morning.

* IMPACT...Areas of dense fog will lower visibilites to under a
  mile...locally quarter mile...that will create hazardous driving
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Dense Fog Advisory means visibilities will frequently be reduced
to a quarter of a mile or less. If driving...slow down... use
your low beam headlights or fog lamps...and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

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