Kingwood, TX, during the late morning.
Kingwood, TX, during the early afternoon.
New Caney, TX, I think, during the early afternoon.
North Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Locations: Northwest, north, and west Houston, TX, Kingwood, TX, Porter, TX, and New Caney, TX.
Thoughts: The sky stayed cloudy to maybe sometimes mostly cloudy with cool temps during the morning, evening, and night. It was warm during the afternoon. It looked like it wanted to rain, but it didn't. I don't think any of the locations in the Houston, TX area got any rain. I don't remember seeing, feeling, or hearing any rain drops.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 050417 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1017 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 .UPDATE... Drier and cooler air filtering in from the northeast behind a weak afternoon boundary passage. Despite this...clear skies have allowed dew point depressions to fall below 3 degrees and dense fog has developed over the northeastern CWA. Have issued a short fuse Dense Fog Advisory to alert any travelers of sub mile visibilites around Sam Houston-Davy Crockett NF/Lake Livingston area. The drier and cooler air mass upon northeasterlies will aid in saturating the lower couple of thousand feet below the frontal inversion and either allow fog or low stratus to form or remain through sunrise. A reinforcing cool northeast wind with a more warm and moist southwesterly mid to upper flow will keep overcast skies around through Monday. This will impact afternoon temperatures with maxTs likely struggling to reach 60 F. Today`s boundary becoming stationary offshore...along with PVA riding on through within the (south)westerlies...will keep slight Gulf/coastal chances in play for either Monday drizzle or light rain. Patchy fog chances will still linger over the local bays and nearshore waters through mid week. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018/ AVIATION... Challenging aviation forecast tonight. Drier air is trying to work it`s way in from the northeast, but moisture trapped under the inversion may keep 800-2500ft ceilings in overnight - at least that`s what is advertised in the 00z TAFs. Wouldn`t be overly surprised to see CLL/UTS see a brief scattering of the clouds, but all indications are that`ll eventually fill back in. MVFR ceilings are expected throughout the day Monday...transitioning to IFR during the late afternoon from south to north as winds veer to the east and eventually southeast allowing for increasing Gulf moisture to return inland. 47 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2018/ A fairly active period ahead, as a weak boundary is making its way slowly today to make for a cool Monday. Then a very brief warmup Tuesday, along with chances of rain and storms increasing ahead of the next front Wednesday. The temperature rollercoaster continues for the second half of the week - brief cooling behind the front, then slow warming until the next front at the end of the week brings more rain and storm potential to the area. This active pattern should keep things from getting too out of hand, we`ll have to keep a wary eye on both frontal passages. Though the models - taken explicitly - don`t show a ton of potential, relatively small errors could give us a setup with a shot at some severe weather in the midweek front, and heavier rain with the weekend front. Because of that, it would be wise to keep on top of the forecast this week to stay ahead of any emergent threats with these fronts. NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... While it`s somewhat muddied in the obs, only shown really well by a subtle wind shift and change in dewpoints, satellite makes it abundantly clear where a weak front is on the northern edge of our area as we sharply transition from the low overcast over our corner of Southeast Texas to brilliantly blue skies on the other side of the front. Because of that, it`s really, really hard to justify calling this a cold front because the sunny skies have allowed temperatures to rise higher than they are here on the "warm side". Because of that, the boundary has become nearly stationary, only dragging south as drier air filters in, mixes, and erodes the low clouds. Anyway, as the sun goes down and we see the reverse, with the clearer skies cooling off faster, we should see a more significant push of the front to the south, ushering in cooler, drier air and offshore winds. It probably won`t be a very significant difference, perhaps only enough to briefly end sea fog in the waters for a bit as we approach dawn. Also, lows overnight should be at least modestly cooler, with greater impacts well north of Houston, and lesser cooling near the coast. SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... Our period of offshore flow should be brief, with winds turning back to be more easterly tomorrow and even southeasterly Monday night. This will bring an influx of moisture right back in, and the return of sea fog on Monday or Monday night, which may manage to push onshore into some coastal areas. While there`s pretty strong certainty in the return of sea fog, if the push will be powerful enough to shove on land is a little more of an open question. Despite that, we should at least look for a bit of warming, with Monday night lows up, and Tuesday highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Some spots near the coast southwest of Houston may make a run for the middle 70s, even. However, with moisture and onshore flow comes the return of rain chances - probably fairly low Monday night, but increasing for Tuesday. Tuesday afternoon, indeed, could be somewhat interesting. Pretty solid agreement for at least some modest instability, and both the GFS and Euro (amazingly out CAPEing the NAM) build 1000-15000 j/kg of CAPE southwest of Houston, and turning in the low level winds suggests a good bit of low shear and helicity. However, this potential instability may remain just that - potential. The low level jet looks to be fairly veered, which generally induces some capping, the front is far to the north yet, reducing low level convergence, and the upper jet is also far to our north, which won`t help support upward motion, either. Something to keep an eye on, but will need some changes in the atmosphere aloft to really allow for much severe potential. LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]... Wednesday may be interesting, as well. the GFS is a bit slow with the front, making it late enough for modest instability to build again when the front rolls through, and could make for some fireworks on the front. The NAM and Euro - and our forecast - show a bit of a different scenario - quick with the surface front, but lagging with the 850 front - this would allow for elevated CAPE to emerge as warm air advection continues just aloft, and we could see some elevated action behind the surface front. The disconnection from the surface would limit the threat from severe winds and tornadoes, but with enough elevated convection and strong deep shear, we could see a shot for some hail in the strongest storms. Because this scenario remains a bit iffy, we concur with SPC in holding back on hitting this potential too hard, but it is a plausible - if unlikely - outcome. Stay tuned for any changes in the coming days. After that, we look for the cooling/warming yo-yo for the second half of the week. Low rain chances are expected, and with the guidance coming in with less clearing behind the front than before, have moderated the swing in temperatures. Spots way up in Houston County may manage to dip into the middle 30s Wednesday night, but freezing temps look less likely than the did before. The next front looks...very difficult to forecast. The operational GFS looks particularly goofy, as it creates an upper trough bonanza around the Pacific coast, squeezing in the western ridge. This slows up the front, which becomes weak and doesn`t make it to our area until Sunday night. In the meantime, a little coastal low/trough spins up and gives us some rain on Saturday. It`s just...weird. I don`t like it - heck, the GFS` own ensemble doesn`t even like it. The op run would be one of the driest members, and IAH`s mean QPF by 192 hours is 1.6 inches (with the wettest member at 2.82 inches) against an operational QPF of 0.91 inches. I`m much more a fan of the Euro, which builds a robust western trough, allowing for northwest flow to power the front in Sunday morning/early afternoon, and like the GEFS, is notably wetter. Still, because of the wide range between the GFS and Euro, I`ve spread the PoPs out some for the end of the forecast period, as there is much time for the details to change. Another thing worth noting - temperature forecasts are similarly impacted, with the Euro considerably warmer than the official forecast at this time range. I`ve nudged temps up from the last shift, but if the Euro does indeed have the better handle on this timeframe, the forecast will have to move up even more. Again, stay tuned. MARINE... Patchy fog will over the Gulf waters should briefly come to an end as the cold front pushes out into the waters and boosts winds to SCEC for 8-14 hours NE 15-20knots. The front stalls and comes back quickly and currently upper 60 dewpoints are lurking 100+ nm offshore. With the return of the warm front Monday night/Tuesday morning the marine areas should have another round of sea fog that continues until a cold front blows through Wednesday 4-9 pm. SCA winds possible in the wake of the cold front. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 42 61 54 72 48 / 10 10 40 50 70 Houston (IAH) 51 60 55 73 58 / 20 10 40 50 70 Galveston (GLS) 54 58 58 67 58 / 20 20 40 40 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for the following zones: Houston...Madison...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity... Walker. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CST Monday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...31
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 539 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-051145- Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Harris-Houston- Liberty-Madison-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller- Washington-Wharton- 539 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Patchy fog this morning could reduce visibility to below a mile at times. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Fog could return Monday night and once again some of the fog could become dense and reduce visibility to below a mile. On Tuesday afternoon, an upper level disturbance could produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms late Tuesday and Tuesday night could become strong and produce hail. Another storm system will approach on Saturday. This system has some potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. $$
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