Jan. 31 2021

 Area Forecast Discussion

Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 010134
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
734 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday Afternoon]...
Winds relaxing inland but still a little stronger closer to the
coast. Clear skies overnight and cool. May flirt with some patchy
light frost near Crockett at sunrise.
45

&&

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR. NNW winds 5-10 knots then getting gusty 16-18z before
weakening quickly in the late afternoon.
45

&&

.MARINE...
Low water advisory to remain in effect until 9 am Monday. Coast
Guard reporting some draft restrictions due to shoaling. May be
dropping the SCA 20-60nm waters at 9 pm with seas lowering or
holding nearly steady throughout the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 249 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021/...





.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday)

Tuesday and Wednesday look to remain quiet with surface high
pressure drifting from East Texas toward the FL panhandle by
Wednesday evening. Sunshine should prevail on Tuesday with some
increase in clouds for Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures warm as well
so MaxT values should warm from the low/mid 60`s on Tuesday to
near 70 degrees on Wednesday. Thursday will be even warmer as 850
mb temps warm to near 14.5 C. PW values remain around an inch or
less with a stout cap in place so no rain is expected. MaxT values
on Thursday could warm into the mid/upper 70`s. The first in a
series of fast moving cold fronts will push through the area early
Friday (maybe late Thursday night). It should knock temperatures
back down into the 60`s for high temperatures. PW values climb to
around 1.30 inches so there could be some showers along the front
but upper level support is weak so not expecting much coverage.

The surface high that builds into the region behind the front will
move east so quickly that a light return flow will become
reestablished on Friday night with a weak onshore flow persisting
on Saturday. A much stronger cold front will then move across SE
TX Saturday night with significantly colder temperatures for next
Saturday night and Sunday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  36  61  36  65  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          40  62  39  64  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        45  60  48  61  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Monday for
     the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Low Water Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE...45
LONG TERM/MARINE...41

Jan. 30 21

 Area Forecast Discussion

Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 310216
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
816 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
Still have lingering MVFR ceilings from around ARM-CXO southward
to near the coast including the HOU/IAH areas. Pre-frontal trough
has moved through and waiting on the cold front. Winds were south
and southwest over SETX with the cold front in the AUS-HDO area
pushing southeast. In addition quite a bit of dust got picked up
by the dry downsloping winds over W TX and will move into SETX
overnight. Much of it is elevated but expect that at sunrise will
still have dusty skies here (possibly some slant visibility
issues). As the front nears the area expect the ST deck in the
southeast to fill in then shift east. By 07-11z much of it should
be out of the area except perhaps along the coast. Winds being
lighter ahead of the boundary may also lead to patchy fog near the
coast but not expecting widespread thick fog just more of the
patchy stuff. For now will hold off on all but GLS in mentioning
it. NW winds in the wake of the front increasing 12-15z and deep
strong mixing should make for gusty north- northwest wind day
across the region.
45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 303 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021/...





.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Sunday Night]...

The upper-level low that has brought abundant cloud cover and warm
conditions was centered over OK/AR region early this afternoon. Per
satellite, the pre-frontal boundary was located across our northwest
counties as of 2PM, leading to a sharp clearing and strong dry air
advection behind it. TDWR-IAH and HOU radars are only indicating a
swath of isolated showers as this boundary moves through. With
strong dry air prevailing above 850mb and limited instability,
expect only isolated rain through late this afternoon/early evening.
Warm southerly flow ahead of the cold front has also led to gusty
conditions today with gusts from 25 to 35 mph. Coastal areas have
reported gusts up to 40 mph. Winds will gradually diminish early
this evening as the cold front arrives. Speaking of, the front/wind
shift will move across the region mainly after midnight, reaching
the coastal waters by daybreak.

Strong dry air advection will be in place in the wake of the
aforementioned frontal boundary. Surface dewpoints will quickly fall
into the 30s and 40s overnight. Dry and cold northwest flow will
lead to a relatively quiet and pleasant Sunday. It will be breezy,
but not as quite as gusty as today. Highs will generally be from the
upper 50s to upper 60s. Winds decrease by early Sunday evening as
the pressure gradient relaxes. Light northwest winds, mostly clear
skies and a persistent dry/cold airmass will lead to a cold night
Sunday night into Monday. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s
to mid 40s. 05


.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)

Cooler temperatures and clear skies are expected on Monday as a
1032 mb high settles over the southern plains. The high will shift
east on Monday night and be east of the region on Tuesday. A
subtle warm up will begin on Tuesday as onshore winds return on
the back side of the retreating high. Temperatures begin to warm
more on Wednesday as 850 mb temps warm and weak ridging at 500 mb
develops over South Texas. MaxT values on Wednesday should warm
into the upper 60`s to possibly lower 70`s. Warm air advection
should lead to an increase in cloud cover during the afternoon.

On Thursday, the upper ridge begins to flatten as a short wave
over CA moves east to southern NM. The flow aloft should become SW
and the combination of weak WAA and the SW upper flow should lead
to a few showers by afternoon. Capping is strong at 850 mb and
its also very dry above the inversion layer so only light showers
beneath the cap are expected during the afternoon.

A surface cold front will enter the state on Friday and there are
still some significant timing differences between the faster ECMWF
and the slow GFS and Canadian models. Have slowed the front down
a bit and tried to average out the differences and will bring the
front through Friday evening with a wind shift to the N-NW and a
surge of much cooler temperatures for next Saturday. 43


.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore waters
through 12z Sunday as a tight pressure gradient has fostered a
strong onshore flow of 20 to 25 knots. Seas exceed 8 feet and even
though the gradient will relax later tonight and winds subside,
the seas will take some time to dampen out. The SCA has been
extended for elevated seas. The strong onshore flow las also
created strong rip currents and Rip Current Statement is in effect
through 03z. A cold front will cross the coast later tonight with
a moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow developing in
it`s wake. Another SCA (or an extension) may be required for the
Gulf waters on Sunday. Cooler air over the warmer water should
keep strong winds and elevated seas going Sunday night. Winds
should relax on Monday as high pressure settles over over the
southern plains. As the high shifts east, an onshore flow should
develop on Tuesday. Onshore winds will then persist into Friday.
Wind speeds will increase Wednesday night through Thursday night
as low pressure develops over the TX panhandle. The next cold
front should across the coastal waters Friday night. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  46  62  38  62  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          51  64  41  62  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        57  65  46  60  48 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
     Bolivar Peninsula.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until midnight CST tonight
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
     from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


AVIATION...45

Jan. 29 21

 Area Forecast Discussion

Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 300200
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
800 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021


.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR will continue for a few more hours before ceilings begin to
lower after 06z and expect BKN/OVC 1400-2000 foot ceilings to
spread northeast across the area through 12z. Still a brief window
for some fog near the coast at LBX/GLS but at this point with
mixing and SW LL flow am expecting it to be more nuisance than
big impact. The MVFR ceilings should continue throughout the
afternoon eventually improving as prefrontal trough arrives or
shortly thereafter. Timing should put the showers into the CLL/UTS
areas around 18-22z and then shifting southeast. IAH/HOU around
20-01z with coverage diminishing toward the end with loss of
destabilization. Borderline for LLWS prior to the arrival of the
prefrontal trough and will be monitoring coming runs for trends
with LLWS. CF should arrive around 03-06z/31 at IAH and this
should scour out the moisture/clouds though some CI may linger. 45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 317 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Sunday]...

Currently, onshore flow and warm theta-e advection will continue to
aid in the increase in low-level cloud coverage throughout the day.
This flow will also increase our overnight low temps and dewpoints
with a noticeable change in the temperatures tonight. Areas north of
Houston can expect lows in the mid-50s while everywhere else can
expect lows in the upper 50s to near 60 range. Ahead of our next
front, southerly flow and cold sea surface temperatures along the
coast could aid in sea fog development late tomorrow morning and
some coastal counties could be affected by this as well. Any fog
should dissipate by tomorrow night as winds switch to an unfavorable
direction for for further fog development and dry air begins to seep
in behind the front.

A deepening trough will push east over OK, NE, and N Texas tonight
and its associated surface cold front will also push east towards SE
Texas. Despite PWATs slowly climbing to 1.0 to 1.2" ahead of the
front, model soundings show a strong low-level capping inversion
(850-900mb)and ample dry air above it. Also, with the jet stream
located well to our north and becoming more zonal, upper-level
support is not favorable for precip as well. Therefore, our CWA can
expect scattered showers with no excessive rainfall. Behind the
front, cooler and drier air will push through our region, helping to
dissipate cloud cover and drop our overnight low temperatures to the
mid-50s south of I-10 and the upper 40s north of Houston. KBL


.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday)

Not a whole lot going on in the long term portion of the forecast.
On Sunday, surface high pressure will move into the Central Plains
in the wake of Saturday night`s cold front. Not a lot of cooling
at 850 mb so would expect Sundays MaxT values to warm into the mid
and upper 60`s under mostly sunny skies. 850 mb temps cool a bit
for Monday and MaxT values should be in the lower 60`s. Moisture
profile looks dry so mainly sunny skies expected again on Monday.

The surface high will drift wast Monday night with a light
onshore flow returning. Could be some patchy fog by Tuesday
morning. Upper level ridging begins to develop and expand over
South Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. Heights increase and temps at
850 mb also warm. This points to a warm up across SE TX for the
middle of next week. MaxT values should warm from the mid 60`s on
Tuesday to the mid 70`s by Thursday.

A short wave trough will move into the southern Rockies early
Thursday and this feature will move toward the Central Plains
Thursday night. The upper level trough axis and surface cold
front will move through the area late Thursday afternoon or
Thursday evening. Could be some isentropic behind the front
Thursday night into early Friday as winds aloft remain SW behind
the front but that`ll change as the upper trough axis pushes
through the area early Friday. A significant drop in 850 temps
should correspond to noticeably cooler surface temps for next
Friday with MaxT values back down into the lower 60`s. 43


.MARINE...

Have issued a SCEC for the Gulf waters tonight as sustained winds
are already exceeding 15 knots at buoy 35 and will likely exceed
that threshold at buoy 19 later this evening. Winds should
increase in response to a tightening pressure gradient as low
pressure over the central plains deepens. Winds may decrease
after 09z over the nearshore waters as the flow veers to the S-SE
as the sfc high drifts east. Winds will veer to the W-SW Sat night
as a pre-frontal trough slides through the region. A cold front
will cross the area very early Sunday and winds will become NW in
the wake of the front and increase to around 20 knots. Another
SCEC or possibly an SCA will be required for the Gulf waters in
the wake of the front. Surface high pressure will build into the
region Sun/Mon and sfc winds will gently veer to the NE and east.
Onshore winds will return Tuesday and persist through next
Thursday as high pressure drifts east and another area of low
pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies. Another cold front
will be possible next Friday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  55  73  47  65  41 /   0  30   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          54  72  51  67  43 /   0  40  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        58  68  57  67  48 /   0  30  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CST Saturday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


AVIATION...45

Jan. 28 21

 Area Forecast Discussion

Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 282326
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 PM CST Thu Jan 28 2021

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Visible satellite shows more upper-level cloud cover coming in
from the west that will bring BKN250 ceilings to all but the
coastal sites (LBX and GLS) as we head into the nighttime hours.
Also beginning tonight, winds will become light and variable
through Friday morning as we lose any semblance of a pressure
gradient over SE Texas. Winds will pick up out of the southeast on
Friday morning as high pressure moving off to the east begins to
put us into onshore flow. This southeasterly wind will also return
moisture to the area with low-level clouds moving in on Friday
morning. SCT025 has been added for the inland sites and BKN030 for
the coastal sites to establish this trend. Looking ahead, MVFR
conditions will likely return for most sites Friday evening/night.
26


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 312 PM CST Thu Jan 28 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday]...

Currently our CWA is experiencing mostly clear skies with some upper-
level cirrus pushing through. High temperatures will struggle to
reach 60 for Houston and areas south while our northern counties
will reach the mid-to upper 50s. Thicker cirrus clouds will begin to
fill in tonight and early tomorrow morning ahead of the next cold
front. Calm NE-E winds tonight will increase and switch to the SE by
early tomorrow morning as a surface high pressure slides east of our
region. Increased cloud cover and the return of SE flow will help
keep overnight lows tonight a few degrees warmer than last night. By
late tomorrow morning, winds will strengthen further and begin to
switch to the south, advecting more moisture and warmer air over our
region. PWATS will increase to near 1.0 inches. This onshore flow
will help increase low-level cloud coverage tomorrow. Overnight lows
tomorrow will increase to the mid-to-upper 50s across our CWA and
near 60 along the coast due to WAA and more low-level clouds. By
early Saturday morning, rain chances will begin to increase as the
next cold front approaches our CWA. KBL


.LONG TERM [Saturday through Friday]...

Scattered showers on Saturday as a cold front moves into the area.
While southerly flow brings in moisture, PWATs will only peak around
1.30 to 1.40 inches so not much in the forecast for accumulation.
South of I-10 will mainly see trace amounts to 0.02 and north of I-
10 could see a little more.  Highs on Saturday will reach the mid
70s after a lows just below 60.  The front will push off to the east
Sunday morning, but cooler air will still be filtering into the
region with lows in the northern counties in the upper 40s and the
southern counties in the mid 50s. Skies will clear as high pressure
builds in through Sunday. Highs will reach the mid 60s and rain
chances diminish.

Northerly flow and mostly sunny skies last through mid next week
when high pressure moves from SETX into the Ohio River Valley. Highs
will reach the mid 60s and lows in the low 40s. Southerly flow
returns Wednesday and temperatures increase and rain chances return
Thursday and Friday as another cold front moves through the area.
35


.MARINE...

Northeast winds around 15 to 20 kt will gradually diminish this
evening as the surface high pressure shifts to the east. Gusts up to
20 knots will still be possible offshore through early this evening.
A disturbance over western TX will bring a cold front through the
region on Saturday. Moderate onshore winds are expected ahead and
along of this FROPA with elevated seas from 5 to 8 ft. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are expected from late Friday into Sunday, and
could persist into Monday. Rain and storm chances are also expected
along the front on Saturday. Light to moderate onshore flow returns
late Monday and should persist through the end of the week.

In terms of sea fog, there is a threat of dense fog prior to front
Friday night into Saturday, and then again Saturday into Sunday,
though confidence remains low to moderate at this time. 05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  38  66  56  74  47 /   0   0  10  30   0
Houston (IAH)          40  65  56  73  52 /   0   0  10  40  10
Galveston (GLS)        51  64  60  69  56 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Jan. 27 21

 Area Forecast Discussion

Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 272339
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
539 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

As the boundary layer becomes decoupled due to radiational
cooling after sunset, gusty northerly winds will come to an end
after 01z. The northerly winds will stick around through the
morning hours along with the upper-level cirrus cloud deck. High
pressure begins to move off to the east tomorrow afternoon, which
will bring a gradual transition of the wind direction from
northerly to northeasterly to easterly. GFS and NAM forecast
soundings show saturation in the upper-levels after 18z tomorrow,
so went with BKN250 for all airports around this time to coincide
with the more easterly wind. Long story short, VFR conditions will
prevail throughout the TAF period for all sites with a gradual
wind shift from northerly to easterly throughout the day tomorrow.
26


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 346 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday]...

Currently, SE Texas is experiencing a mild day with mostly clear
skies due to some upper-level cirrus clouds, temps in the mid-to-
upper 60s, and low dewpoints in the 20s to 30s as high pressure
behind the latest cold front begins to settle in. Gusty NNW winds
will begin to subside after sunset and become NE overnight. Skies
will continue to clear out, but some upper-level clouds might remain
offshore. NNW and NE winds along with clear skies will lead
overnight lows in the low 40s south of I-10 and in the mid-30s for
our northern counties tonight. Despite clear skies tomorrow allowing
more solar insolation, continued CAA will keep daytime highs a
little colder tomorrow with our CWA struggling to reach 60.
Overnight tomorrow, the return of SE winds will help overnight lows
creep up into the mid 40s for areas south of I-10 and upper 30s near
40 areas north of I-10. KBL


.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Wednesday]...

Friday, high pressure over the Southern Plains will move into the
Ohio River Valley. Winds become southeasterly and temperatures
will begin to warm. Highs Saturday are mid 70 with lows Saturday
morning mid to upper 50s respectively. Sunday morning lows will
still be a bit warmer as a cool front is expected Sunday morning
but exact timing could change the lows by a bit. As of now, FROPA
is expected early morning but winds shifts are net expected to
bring in cooler air until later in the morning. Northern counties
are still looking to drop into the mid 40s but mid to upper 50s is
still expected along the coast. Rainfall is still looking sparse
as the system is looking weak and moisture deprived; despite the
onshore flow. Mid levels are still looking dry, some guidance
shows 30 percent RH and strong capping inversion at 850mb. With
that said, someone is going to see some liquid falling from the
sky, but I wouldn`t turn the timer off on the sprinkler system
just yet.

By Sunday evening, high pressure will build into the Southern
Plains yet again and blue skies showing by mid day for most
areas. The cold air will filter in with a brisk northerly flow and
highs will reach around 70. Winds will relax Sunday night and
northerly will persist through early next week. Highs will stay in
the mid 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s. By mid week, onshore
flow returns as high pressure retreats to the northeast (again)
and low pressure in the Four Corners region will deepen.
35


.MARINE...
With high pressure building into the region offshore winds still
stout and expect 20 to 25 knot wind the remainder of the afternoon
then gradually tapering down through Thursday noon...a little
faster over the bays and nearshore. Seas though 7-9 feet well
offshore this afternoon will be slower to come down. Winds
becoming easterly Friday and will see the slightly below normal to
normal tide level increase. A potent upper level storm system
tracks out of AZ into OK and this will push a cold front into the
coastal waters Sunday. Moderate offshore flow in the wake of the
front is fairly short lived as another strong system bringing a
long strong fetch back into the region and seas building to 7-9
feet by mid week with the strong WAA.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  35  59  39  64  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          40  60  42  62  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        47  57  51  59  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 10 PM CST this evening
     through late tonight for the following zones: Coastal
     waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
     NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
     NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
     from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM...KBL
LONG TERM...35
AVIATION...26
MARINE...45

Jan. 26 21

 Area Forecast Discussion

Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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---

000
FXUS64 KHGX 270003
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
603 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Not planning on a lot of changes with the going TAF trends with re-
gard to the timing of the cold front tonight/overnight. Short range
guidance still indicating a fairly dry/quiet FROPA with CIGS likely
lifting quickly in its wake. Otherwise, will be keeping a close eye
on possible patchy MVFR CIGS near the coast overnight. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021/

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday Night]...

Yesterday`s surface cold front remains stalled well offshore, with
some lingering cloudiness still present across the barrier islands
and immediate inland areas. That being said, the gradual clearing
over the past 24 hours has allowed for more efficient daytime
heating this afternoon, while the shift to east-northeasterly winds
has limited CAA. Overall, daytime highs have risen above model
consensus with Hobby Airport reaching 77 at 3PM and Galveston
reaching the 75 earlier today.

As an upper trough traverses the Central Plains, the approach of a
reinforcing cold front overnight will provide an additional surge of
cooler air to SE TX as winds strengthen and shift northward. The
boundary should arrive at the Brazos Valley before midnight and will
likely clear the coast before sunrise on Wednesday. With limited
moisture availability given the influx of drier air yesterday, the
frontal passage should be largely a dry one. However, as indicated
by recent HRRR solutions, some isolated showers may arise near the
coast where near-surface moisture remains higher. This raises the
additional possibility of some patchy fog development in these
locations prior to the arrival of the front but coverage and
intensity should be limited.

Tonight`s lows should be fairly similar to last night`s with most
locations seeing values in the upper 40s to low 50s. As moderate to
strong northerly winds (with gusts rising to up to 25mph) develop in
the wake of the front, a further cooldown is expected tomorrow.
Daytime highs are unlikely to rise above 70, while overnight lows
may approach freezing in the northern zones and will otherwise be in
the mid-30s to lower 40s.

Cady

LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...


High pressure in the Midwest will dominate the Southern Planes
bringing clear to mostly clear skies and relatively drier
conditions. Thursday will be pleasant with highs climbing to around
60 after lows in the low to mid 40s. The large high will start
moving to the northeast on Friday into the Ontario area, giving
way to an onshore flow. Warmer and more moist will set back in
warming lows on Friday to the mid 40s and warming to the mid to
upper 60s.

A cold front, Saturday will increase rain chances, but most higher
chances remain to the north of I-10 but showers or a thunderstorm
can`t be ruled out along the boundary. Intensity is still looking
weak with PWATs peaking around 1.3 inches and not much
instability along the front. Highs will reach the mid 70s after a
morning low in the mid 50s to around 60. Early Sunday Morning, the
front will have passed and high pressure returns to the area.
Lows will still reach around mid 50s to around 60 with highs
around 70. Cooler temperatures will filter in with drier air and
clearing skies through mid week as high pressure moves across the
area. 35

MARINE...
SCA hoisted for the anticipated change post frontal. Northeast
winds this evening will relax and seas very slowly diminish. The
cold front arrives and winds crank up quickly - timing should
bring it to Matagorda Bay around 3 am and off of Galveston between
4 and 5 am. Winds of 15 to 25 knots will be common and wind gusts
of 30 knots with even a few of 35 knots in the 6am to noon
timeframe. Persistent offshore continues Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday evening through diminishing to 10-15 knots. Seas
will be slow to fall with the persistent offshore flow. Onshore
flow resumes Friday and could have a short period of sea fog
Saturday before the next cold front scours out the moisture Sunday
morning.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      45  63  36  60  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              51  67  41  61  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            56  65  49  56  52 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 10 PM CST Wednesday for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
     Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
     to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99