Friday, January 1, 2021

Jan. 1 21

 Summary: White with maybe some grey stratus clouds looked to be scattered across the sky, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. I believe there was a 0 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area, during the day. I did not hear about, or see any rain falling anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops, where I was in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. It felt very cold, almost freezing, during the early morning. It felt cold, during the mid and late morning. It felt cold, almost very cool, during the afternoon. It felt cold, during the evening. It felt very cold, during the night. The wind speeds were calm with light to moderate gusts. 

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 012348
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 PM CST Fri Jan 1 2021

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

MVFR conditions courtesy of an overcast cloud layer around 2,500
ft is currently affecting our northern airports (CLL, UTS, CXO)
and is expected to extend down to IAH in a few hours as well.
Further south, conditions will remain VFR with a low level
scattered cloud deck moving in later on tonight. For the northern
airports, expect the MVFR conditions to linger through tomorrow
morning before they scatter out and bring a return to VFR
conditions by late morning. Looking ahead for Saturday evening,
winds will transition to light and variable as high pressure moves
over southeast Texas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 325 PM CST Fri Jan 1 2021/...

.DISCUSSION...

New Year, New Weather! Okay, not really. But after a stretch with
some fairly big weather impacts, this next week looks a little
more quiet. Things look chilly in the short term, followed by a
gradual warming trend into next week. Expect a cold front in the
middle of next week, but looks to be not nearly as impactful -
we`ll get a brief chance of some showers and the warming trend
will be halted, but that`s about it.




.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

A handy look at the satellite shows exiting cirrus at the coast,
and an intruding deck of stratus coming in from the north. In
between, there is a narrow channel of clear sky. Winds are out of
the northwest. That stratus deck should be expected to continue to
spread across the area as the upper trough that supported
yesterday`s strong weather moves through. Not looking for much
more than clouds overnight, but guidance does suggest a very low
chance of light showers if you`re spending the night 40-60 miles
offshore.

Surface analysis suggests there may be a very subtle
secondary cold front that would make its way across the area very
late tonight. There shouldn`t be much in the way of noticeable
impact here, but it should usher in drier air that will scatter
out the stratus deck coming into Southeast Texas this afternoon.
Behind it, we`ll see weak high pressure pass across the area
tomorrow. If it moves quickly enough, we could see light, onshore
flow resume by sunrise on Sunday.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

High pressure will be building across Southeast Texas on Sunday that
will stick around through at least Tuesday before sliding off to the
east. This will provide our region will mostly clear skies and
rather benign weather through that time frame. There may be some
lingering high level clouds on Sunday as a weak upper level low
swings through the area, but this will be moving to the east rather
quickly. Mid-level ridging builds on Monday into Tuesday over Texas
really helping to give us clear skies and light winds. High
temperatures on Sunday will be in the low to mid 60s with lows
Sunday night in the mid 30s to low 40s. Rising heights and sunny
skies will help to induce a gradual warming each day through
Wednesday as highs climb to near 70 and lows into the 50s.

The next disturbance to pass through the area looks to arrive
midweek bringing with it another chance of precipitation. There has
been some differences between runs and between models on the
strength and timing of this system, but it generally seems that the
associated cold front will pass through the region overnight
Wednesday into Thursday morning. This is looking to be moving
relatively quickly with high pressure building back in by late
Thursday into Friday returning us to chilly and clear weather.


.MARINE...

Northwest winds have diminished since earlier this morning, making
the main marine concern today the low water in the bays today.
Water levels at Galveston Bay entrance fell to 1.5 feet below MLLW
at low tide, and water levels below 1 foot MLLW will linger deep
into the afternoon until the swing back up to high tide begins in
earnest.

Look for onshore flow to resume Saturday night or Sunday morning,
staying light to moderate into the middle of the week. At that
time, another cold front is expected to pass through, but the
pressure gradients involved will mean that unlike gales we`ve seen
recently, winds are not likely to be nearly as strong before or
after this front passes.


.CLIMATE...

2020 has come to an end and it will be one for the record books.
Overall the region was drier than normal and exceptionally warm. It
was so warm that each of the primary climate site`s average
temperature for 2020 ranked in the top five warmest on record. The
City of College Station finished as the 5th warmest with an average
temperature of 70.9 degrees. The Cities of Houston and Galveston
both tied for the second warmest years at 72.1 degrees and 74.3
degrees, respectively. Houston-Hobby had a yearly average
temperature of 73.5 degrees making it *the* warmest year on record,
beating out 2017 that had an average temperature of 73.3 degrees.

Generally the area was around 5 to 10 inches of rain below normal,
besides some localized spots like Houston-Hobby that lucked out with
a few very rainy days during the tropical season making it the only
climate site to see above normal precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  34  54  35  64  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          38  53  37  64  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        43  54  48  62  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Luchs
CLIMATE...Fowler

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