Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 102350 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 550 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Snow falling in the northern TAF sites with a mix of rain snow expecting at IAH tonight as well. LIFR/IFR conditions are expected to persist for most flying areas and with ceilings hanging around 010 or lower and 005 or lower for the northern flying areas. Snow fall is and expects to continue to restrict visibility in the northern flying areas to IFR or lower conditions, while southern flying areas will stay MVFR to IFR in rain. Over all improvement will not occur until tomorrow evening, where some indications are showing fog development. 35 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 256 PM CST Sun Jan 10 2021/... .SHORT TERM [This Afternoon through Monday Night]... Water vapor satellite imagery nicely shows the strong low responsible for our winter event spinning between the San Angelo-Sweetwater area early this afternoon and making gradual eastward progress. Local area surface observations (temperatures in the low to mid 30s) and photos/videos early this afternoon are showing snow steadily falling across parts of our northern counties where the Winter Storm Warning remains in effect and excellent ascent is found. Accumulations are likely beginning (have some 1 to 3 inch amounts so far in/around the Bryan/College Station area), and they will continue for the remainder of the afternoon through evening hours before this event comes to an end. Models continue to show support for banding across parts of the warned area (different runs continue to show different amounts across different locations), and wherever the best/persistent banding sets up will likely receive our highest amounts. At this time, planning on keeping wording the same in the warning of 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. As this event continues to unfold and amounts increase, we might need to update our products and raise these numbers. There continues to be uncertainty as to how far south the frozen precipitation will get and to whether or not anything will accumulate. Still think somewhere in/ around a Cat Springs to The Woodlands to Segno line could end up being this line. Whether there is just rain, a mix of rain and snow, or just snow, motorists should obviously use extreme caution if needing to drive this afternoon and on into tonight and the overnight hours. Temperatures will remain on the cool/cold side and will filter southward across the area for the rest of the afternoon through overnight hours in response to winds shifting to the northeast and north on the back side of a strengthening low off the Texas coast. This low will continue to bring gusty/windy conditions to the coastal area where a Wind Advisory is in effect. Look for improving weather conditions late tonight through early tomorrow morning (lows ranging from the upper 20s north to the upper 30s/around 40 coast) as the system lifts off to the east and northeast and some drier air begins to filter in. Clouds might end up being slow to exit the area on Monday (highs in the 40s). Less cloud cover and lighter winds will allow for Tuesday morning`s lows to bottom out in the mid to upper 20s inland and in the mid to upper 30s at the coast. Stay safe out there! 42 .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday Night]... As a surface high begins to settle in over the region skies will start to clear and winds will begin to calm, allowing overnight temperatures to remain cold. On Tuesday night, overnight lows north of I-10 will still be at or near freezing for several hours while everywhere else will be in the mid 30s. Coastal cities will be even warmer and near 40. Southwest winds and clear skies will help daytime highs creep back into the mid to upper 60s by Thursday. Another shortwave trough is expected to push over our area by Wednesday, but as of right now, it appears that any precip will remain offshore with the GFS and Canadian models in similar agreeance with this front. By Friday, another front is expected to push through our area, with the Euro and Canadian being the most aggressive with its strength and keeping most of the precip offshore again before pushing east rather quickly. However, the GFS has it developing slower with a surface low off of our coast and most of the precip remaining offshore and along our coastal cities. GFS model soundings are showing a strong capping inversion still, so as of right now, most of our CWA will still not see any rain with this FROPA. KBL .MARINE... Currently, a gale warning is in effect for our offshore Gulf Waters while our bays are in a Small Craft Advisory. Winds will become northerly tonight and remain gale force until early tomorrow morning before subsiding to a high-end Small Craft Advisory. Small craft conditions are expected to persist until late monday and winds will remain northerly until Wednesday night due to another frontal passage. With strong and persistent offshore winds, expect low water advisories during low tide until winds subside. Following the frontal passage on Wednesday, winds will become Southwest and then West until another frontal passage on Friday where winds will switch back to northerly winds. KBL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 31 41 28 47 32 / 80 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 34 43 32 50 34 / 80 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 39 45 40 49 43 / 70 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for the following zones: Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Washington. High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands. Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for the following zones: Austin...Montgomery...Waller. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Monday for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. Gale Warning until 4 AM CST Monday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$
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