Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000 FXUS64 KHGX 272339 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 539 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... As the boundary layer becomes decoupled due to radiational cooling after sunset, gusty northerly winds will come to an end after 01z. The northerly winds will stick around through the morning hours along with the upper-level cirrus cloud deck. High pressure begins to move off to the east tomorrow afternoon, which will bring a gradual transition of the wind direction from northerly to northeasterly to easterly. GFS and NAM forecast soundings show saturation in the upper-levels after 18z tomorrow, so went with BKN250 for all airports around this time to coincide with the more easterly wind. Long story short, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period for all sites with a gradual wind shift from northerly to easterly throughout the day tomorrow. 26 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 346 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday]... Currently, SE Texas is experiencing a mild day with mostly clear skies due to some upper-level cirrus clouds, temps in the mid-to- upper 60s, and low dewpoints in the 20s to 30s as high pressure behind the latest cold front begins to settle in. Gusty NNW winds will begin to subside after sunset and become NE overnight. Skies will continue to clear out, but some upper-level clouds might remain offshore. NNW and NE winds along with clear skies will lead overnight lows in the low 40s south of I-10 and in the mid-30s for our northern counties tonight. Despite clear skies tomorrow allowing more solar insolation, continued CAA will keep daytime highs a little colder tomorrow with our CWA struggling to reach 60. Overnight tomorrow, the return of SE winds will help overnight lows creep up into the mid 40s for areas south of I-10 and upper 30s near 40 areas north of I-10. KBL .LONG TERM [Friday Night through Wednesday]... Friday, high pressure over the Southern Plains will move into the Ohio River Valley. Winds become southeasterly and temperatures will begin to warm. Highs Saturday are mid 70 with lows Saturday morning mid to upper 50s respectively. Sunday morning lows will still be a bit warmer as a cool front is expected Sunday morning but exact timing could change the lows by a bit. As of now, FROPA is expected early morning but winds shifts are net expected to bring in cooler air until later in the morning. Northern counties are still looking to drop into the mid 40s but mid to upper 50s is still expected along the coast. Rainfall is still looking sparse as the system is looking weak and moisture deprived; despite the onshore flow. Mid levels are still looking dry, some guidance shows 30 percent RH and strong capping inversion at 850mb. With that said, someone is going to see some liquid falling from the sky, but I wouldn`t turn the timer off on the sprinkler system just yet. By Sunday evening, high pressure will build into the Southern Plains yet again and blue skies showing by mid day for most areas. The cold air will filter in with a brisk northerly flow and highs will reach around 70. Winds will relax Sunday night and northerly will persist through early next week. Highs will stay in the mid 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s. By mid week, onshore flow returns as high pressure retreats to the northeast (again) and low pressure in the Four Corners region will deepen. 35 .MARINE... With high pressure building into the region offshore winds still stout and expect 20 to 25 knot wind the remainder of the afternoon then gradually tapering down through Thursday noon...a little faster over the bays and nearshore. Seas though 7-9 feet well offshore this afternoon will be slower to come down. Winds becoming easterly Friday and will see the slightly below normal to normal tide level increase. A potent upper level storm system tracks out of AZ into OK and this will push a cold front into the coastal waters Sunday. Moderate offshore flow in the wake of the front is fairly short lived as another strong system bringing a long strong fetch back into the region and seas building to 7-9 feet by mid week with the strong WAA. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 35 59 39 64 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 40 60 42 62 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 47 57 51 59 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 10 PM CST this evening through late tonight for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KBL LONG TERM...35 AVIATION...26 MARINE...45
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