Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 232321 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 521 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021 .AVIATION... LIFR/IFR conditions will persist overnight and well into late Sun morning across most of the region. A warm front will be making its way inland overnight and bring periods of low cigs/-ra/dz/fg. Southerly winds will increase Sun afternoon which should allow cigs to possibly lift into MVFR for a while, but anticipate them to fall once again after sunset. 47 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021/ SHORT TERM [Through Sunday Night]... It`s been yet another day of grey, gloomy, and foggy weather across SE Texas, particularly near the coast where areas of dense fog continue to persist in and around Galveston and Matagorda Bays. The approach of a surface warm front towards the coast this evening will prove favorable for a continuation of this pattern throughout the day tomorrow. As the boundary exits the coastal waters this evening, a shift to south-southeast winds in its wake will allow for much more efficient moisture transport with dew point values increasing by around 5 degrees by tomorrow afternoon. The shift in wind direction will additionally provide a more lengthy fetch which will enhance the development of sea fog overnight and into tomorrow. We once again anticipate widespread visibilities below one mile, particularly along the coast, on the barrier islands, and in the bays and nearshore waters. Travelers, whether by land or sea, should pay close attention to conditions and exercise caution through the remainder of the weekend. Continued overcast decks will furthermore inhibit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping lows at or above 60 for most of the region. Precipitation chances will be on the rise overnight and into tomorrow as the surface warm front pushes inland, eventually clearing the northern third of the area by the afternoon. Scattered to isolated showers will develop along and behind the boundary as it advances, aided by the ample low-level moisture in place. While most locations can expect to see measurable rainfall, accumulations are unlikely to be significant on Sunday. Highs will be around 5-8 degrees warmer across the board with the arrival of warm and moist air behind the front, with most locations experiencing the low to mid 70s. Cady .LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]... Pacific cold front should be approaching College Station around 6-9 AM with moist moderate southerly flow in place likely getting a little gusty as the inversion breaks. At this point the guidance is still bullish with the cap eroding over the far northern counties and holding in across the south...A narrow wedge of 1000 CAPE trails down into the area and so have continued with the high end POPs with TSRA prevailing mainly north of the I-10 corridor (especially along and north of the Conroe area). Rainfall accumulations should be relatively light with the fast progression and mainly showers. Then by mid afternoon it should be out over the Gulf with dry air replacing the persistent soup of the previous days. This boundary hangs up in the NW Gulf only to return as a warm front Tuesday night/Wednesday so you can guess what that means...more FOG...but wait in this case the surface warm front never quite reaches the nearshore waters so the fog impacts for the bays may never arrive - possible further out before the next cold front races through SETX Wednesday morning with an abundance of clouds but likely lacking in rainfall. This cold front has a decent ridge associated and should scour out the area with gusty moderate northwest winds and much cooler temperatures that persist Wednesday night through Friday morning. The next upper trough deepening over CA/Baja should lead to return flow - increasing warmth and moisture Friday afternoon into Saturday. As would be expected the timing of the weekend system is in question with a faster solution coming of the ECMWF bench and a slower solution from the GFS. For now have split the difference there with slight chance POPs. 45 .MARINE... Reduced visibility due to marine fog will continue to be a concern this evening as a surface warm front traverses the coastal waters and southeasterly winds develop in its wake. Widespread dense fog with visibility dropping to below 1 NM is expected to persist into Sunday, and the Dense Fog Advisory has been extended as a result. Scattered showers will accompany the passage of the cold front. Onshore flow will increase by late Sunday and into early Monday as a surface cold front approaches SE Texas. Caution and/or advisory flags are likely to be needed as a result. As the cold front approaches the coastal waters on Monday afternoon, cooler and drier air will filter in in its wake which should put an end to the past week`s prolonged sea fog episode. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 60 74 62 72 48 / 50 50 70 60 0 Houston (IAH) 61 74 65 75 52 / 50 40 40 60 0 Galveston (GLS) 60 69 64 69 57 / 50 20 20 40 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. && $$ Discussion...99
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