Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 242343 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 543 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 .AVIATION... Expecting a mix of MVFR/IFR cigs overnight and perhaps a few streamer shra. Winds should remain up enough to mitigate dense fog inland, but still cannot rule out some low vsbys around the Galveston Bay area in association with patches of sea fog. Pacific cold front will be moving into the region from wnw-to-ese during the mid morning thru late afternoon hours. Will probably see some -ra/shra ahead of the boundary, but not much of significance in regards to intensity. Conditions will transition to VFR a few hours after fropa as drier air begins moving in. 47 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021/ SHORT TERM [through Monday Night]... While skies have remained generally overcast this afternoon, the area experienced a significant improvement in visibility conditions during the day today with the coast now remaining almost clear of fog. This rest will only be momentary, however, with another night of potentially dense fog in store. With surface pressures deepening over western TX and the gradient tightening over SE TX, onshore flow has increased in strength this afternoon which has proved favorable for the development of isolated showers across the northern half of the area today. This has also allowed for dew points to reach the upper 60s at most locations. This ample moisture is expected to favor fog development after sunset once again as sea surface temperatures in Galveston Bay are holding at around 60F and southerly flow is persisting. Both SREF probabilistic guidance and forecast soundings have indicated the redevelopment of sea fog after sunset, which could be dense at times. However, the stronger wind speeds overnight tonight may work to hamper development slightly. With overcast skies continuing to inhibit radiative cooling overnight, lows are expected to stay in the mid to upper 60s. A pattern shift, likely welcomed by many, is anticipated tomorrow as the developing surface low pushes northeastward while its associated cold frontal boundary advances through SE Texas during the day. The boundary should reach the Brazos Valley after sunrise tomorrow, the Houston metro by late morning, and the coast by late afternoon. Showers with some isolated thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the boundary. As the front departs during the evening hours and continues to push offshore, a shift to northwest winds in its wake will allow for a cooler and drier airmass to take hold over the area. This should put an end to the prolonged fog event in recent days and produce nighttime lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s tomorrow. Cady LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]... In the wake of the cold front on Monday, Tuesday`s light northerly flow brings in cooler temperatures with morning lows around 50. Highs will still reach the mid 70s with mostly sunny skies and winds shifting easterly through the day. A cold front Wednesday morning will make way for high pressure and northwesterly flow. Profiles show the frontal boundary relatively dry and PWATs peak at around an inch. POPs are increased during frontal passage, but only traces amount of rainfall are expected, if any, and the greatest threat will be along the coastline. The increase in cloud cover will prevent much cooling, keeping lows in the low to mid 50s and the highs right around 70. The end of the week will be dominated by high pressure with a dry northerly flow turning to a easterly flow on Friday. Highs will reach the mid 60s and lows in the mid 40s with low 50s along the coast. During the weekend, a warm front off the gulf will bring warm southerly flow and increasing cloud coverage. Rain chances increase, during cold frontal passage, but trends are suggesting another dry and weak system. Lows will reach low to mid 50s and highs around 70. 35 MARINE... Stout southerly flow in place and mixing has gotten rid of the thickest of the sea fog. As temperatures cool down expect some patchy sea fog to form over the coldest of the shelf/bay waters late this evening then after midnight may grow in areal coverage but will be a fine line between becoming dense. Will let the evening shift make the call on it based on latest obs. Seas-winds building tonight and SCEC/SCA already hoisted. Cold front surging southward at 3 pm near Childress and should sweep into the coast around 1-3 pm Monday and then through the Gulf waters by 5 pm. Could see some showers with the frontal passage. Winds post frontal are not very strong and quickly turn from northwest to northeast. Next upper trough moves closer and a stronger cold front swings through on Wednesday. This will set up a persistent offshore flow that will approach 20 knots sustained so long lived SCA-SCEC conditions on tap through early Friday. Southerlies return and strengthen Friday night/Saturday morning and this could spell a brief period of sea fog before the next cold front on Sunday. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 63 72 46 74 48 / 50 60 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 67 75 51 73 54 / 40 50 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 64 70 57 65 58 / 30 50 10 0 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CST Monday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$
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