Summary: The sky looked to be clear with maybe some small high white stratus clouds, during the morning and afternoon. Low white stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the early night and maybe evening. I believe there was a 0 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area, during the day. I did not hear about, or see any rain falling anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX, during anytime of the day. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere where I was in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. It felt cool, during the early and mid-morning. It felt a little cool, during the late morning, afternoon, and early evening and maybe late evening. It felt cool, during the early night. The wind speeds were calm with maybe some light to moderate gusts.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 060037 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 637 PM CST Tue Jan 5 2021 .AVIATION... Weak warm air advection will persist overnight and low level moisture will return with saturation developing between 2500-5000 feet. MVFR cigs expected to develop from west to east across area TAF sites between 03-06z with MVFR cigs after 06z. Showers will develop over western TAF sites by 12z as a deeper ribbon of moisture develops. A cold front will cross the region during the afternoon with a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Added a VRB wind gust group for the fropa. Skies should begin to clear from west to east toward evening or more likely after 00z. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST Tue Jan 5 2021/ DISCUSSION... After a stretch of quiet weather, our long advertised cold front is now a feature of the short term forecast. Look for rain chances and some thunderstorms ahead of and along the cold front expected to cross the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. If there is enough instability, we could manage a severe storm or two. The main threat in this case would be for damaging straight-line winds, with a brief tornado as a secondary threat. Additionally, there is some potential for localized heavy rain threats if there are strong storms and/or training over areas that saw heavy rain with our previous front. Beyond that, another thing to keep an eye on is the expected development of a coastal low this weekend, primed to bring us another chance of precipitation on Sunday. Odds favor rain across the area, but there is a non-zero chance for some snow well north of the Houston metro towards the Pineywoods. There is not much that can be said definitively at this range, it`s just one possibility of several we need to consider. SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]... Though the radar remains clear over our area as newly onshore winds remain fairly light, things are a little different farther down the Texas coast, the first harbinger of changes ahead in our weather. Surface analysis shows high pressure has moved off to the Mid- South, while a new surface low from Colorado is deepening and has moved to the CO/OK/KS junction. This low is dropping its cold front back into New Mexico. This is what`s responsible for winds becoming more established as onshore, and those winds should strengthen as the pressure gradient between the exiting high and deepening low continues to increase. In response, stronger winds should keep temperatures considerably warmer tonight, particularly inland where the sudden influx of Gulf air will boost lows up to 15 degrees higher than they were yesterday. Precipitable water should also increase above an inch along the moisture axis overnight, so we`ll gradually see the potential for light showers nearshore around Matagorda Bay gradually push over the inland west, then spread across the rest of the area as moisture and lift increase ahead of the oncoming front. Additionally, the stronger winds overnight should largely eliminate the threat of getting a repeat of the fog we`ve seen the past couple of nights. Though isolated patches could briefly crop up in locations that may temporarily see winds go slack. Finally, we`ll be keeping an eye out for thunderstorm potential ahead of and along the front as it sweeps through tomorrow afternoon. The limiting factor here will be instability, as we`ll check plenty of boxes for shear, lift, and moisture. Like the last front, I think we`ll be looking at a scenario where we either get enough instability to build and are looking at the potential of the strongest storms featuring potentially damaging winds and even a brief tornado or two, along with briefly heavy rain. Ooorrrr...the instability never really builds thanks to cloud cover and morning rain showers, and things are fairly uneventful. All in all, something that seems pretty well summed up by SPC`s Day 2 marginal risk. Rain chances should come to an end through the night as gusty northwest winds begin to scour out moisture, and set us up for cooler weather ahead in the long term... LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]... Cold and dry weather expected Thurs/Fri as the CAA persists and the strong surface high deepens over the Plains. Under the mostly clear skies, high temperatures will likely remain in the mid to upper 50s for both Thurs/Fri. Overnight lows should range from the low to mid 30s generally north of I-10 and upper 30s to lower 40s south. We`ll start to see some changes Sat as winds shift to the east then slightly southeast. This should help to increase low-level moisture across the CWA (from the SW). Models still not very consistent with what happens next, but there does seem to be a more southward trend with the development/track of the surface coastal low on Sun...well off the TX coast. Further aloft, models are keeping with the strong shortwaves embedded in the upper trof so rain chances should remain elevated for most of Sun. So for now, will keep with what we already have in the WX/POP grids... chance POPs in liquid form. Again, we`ll likely see more changes as we move forward in time, but for now, not going to upset the cart too much. Much colder/breezy conditions will be developing in the wake of the cold front associated with this low pressure system. MARINE... Onshore winds are returning to the waters, and expect those to strengthen overnight. At some point, we`ll exceed the SCEC threshold in the offshore waters, and potentially the nearshore and even Matagorda Bay as well. While we seem less likely to reach the threshold for a small craft advisory before the front arrives, winds look like they will be stronger on the backside of the front, with gusty northwesterlies surging in quickly Wednesday night into Thursday. A small craft advisory does look likely for this period. Conditions will improve later on Thursday as winds and seas diminish, and carry into the first half of the weekend. However, as a coastal low is expected to develop for the second half of the weekend, winds and seas will be expected to increase again on Sunday. HYDROLOGY... Flood warnings remain in effect on the Navasota River at Normangee, and on the San Bernard River at Boling and Sweeny. All three sites are forecast to fall below flood stage over the next 36 or so hours, but the timing - and even the potential for future rises - will be heavily dependent on rain that falls in this same time period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 54 67 39 57 37 / 20 70 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 54 70 43 58 41 / 10 80 20 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 59 68 48 59 45 / 10 70 60 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...99 Aviation/Marine...99
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