Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 062354 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 554 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... A line of strong storms accompanying a cold front will be pushing through LBX and GLS within the next hour or so with conditions improving at all the other terminals in wake of the front. VFR conditions with breezy northwesterly winds will prevail overnight, but MVFR CIGs of around 2000ft creep back in from the northwest by sunrise that will continue through the early afternoon. The clouds will scatter out through the afternoon with winds becoming light by sunset. Fowler && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 427 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Tonight through Thursday Afternoon]... Line of storms with primarily a wind threat from Groveton to Coldspring to Conroe to Tomball to Eagle Lake then becomes more scattered to the southwest should continue to march steadily southeast and into the coastal waters early this evening. This line should push through bringing a quick 0.5 to 1.5" of rain in heavy downpours and dramatically lower visibility. After the front with these storms pushes through skies should clear quickly this evening. Wrap around cloud deck should push back south across the northern areas around midnight and reach the Houston areas by sunrise and linger into the afternoon. Temperatures tomorrow should struggle to get into the mid to upper 50s. 45 .LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]... As the surface cold front and associated weak surface low departs tomorrow, a period of cool, clear, and dry weather is anticipated through the remainder of the week end into the early part of the weekend as broad surface high pressure becomes the dominant synoptic feature across the central CONUS. In general, afternoon highs will remain in the mid to upper 50s through Saturday with overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Light north to northeasterly winds should remain near or below 10 miles per hour. Though there continues to be a great deal of uncertainty surrounding its development, the main story in the extended period continues to be the formation of a coastal low on Sunday which could result in the first instance of wintry precipitation in the greater Houston area in approximately two years. As an upper trough dips into the Four Corners region by Late Saturday, its associated jet streak will provide sufficient upper-level divergence to support deepening low pressure over the southwestern Gulf, with global guidance indicating the formation of a closed low on Sunday. As has been the case in recent months, the GFS deterministic solution remains more progressive than the EC solution, though the 18Z run has started to come into better agreement with the slower EC. Given the track record of the EC in similar events recently, have generally sided with its solution for this forecast package. While the precipitation type forecast remains quite messy for Sunday as the developing surface low pushes towards the central Gulf, there have been consistent indications over the past 48 hours that support the possibility of a mixed phase precipitation event during the overnight hours across the northern/northwestern zones. With 850mb temps remaining in the vicinity of -2 to -3 degC, total PWs rising to the vicinity of 1 inch, and forecast soundings indicating a well- saturated profile, have decided to include rain and snow showers in the forecast between 00Z and 12Z Monday (Sunday night CST). While there`s still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this situation, the possibility of wintry precipitation during this time is on the increase. As the coastal low tracks further eastward, clearer and drier conditions are anticipated by Monday afternoon which should persist into mid-week. Cady .MARINE... SCA hoisted for the marine waters tonight and through 18z for the moderate to strong offshore flow in the wake of the front. Tides lower overnight and could need a short low water advisory late Thursday morning into the early afternoon with the low tide cycle but as of now tide levels shouldn`t quite get there. Stay tuned. Winds and seas relaxing Thursday as high pressure builds in then Friday transitions as high pressure departs and winds start veering to back onshore by late Friday/early Saturday...then strengthens Saturday night. Seas build and will looking for SCA conditions returning along with elevated tide levels Sunday and Sunday night as the cold front sweeps in as coastal low tracks northeast from South Texas coastal waters. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 42 54 38 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 45 56 40 55 37 / 70 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 49 56 45 54 44 / 90 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$
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