Thoughts: The house area did not receive any snow only some possible freezing rain/sleet yesterday.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 112344 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 544 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... MVFR conditions at most TAF sites with ceilings around 020-030. Most are expected to lift over night to IFR and scatter out. Down side of this is it will make the area set for fog development and current conditions are pointing to freezing fog. Being a bit more optimistic, most of the fog should be dissipating around 15-16z but depending on how much and how thick it forms, it could be late morning until VFR conditions return. 35 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 257 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Tonight through Tuesday Night]... Skies have been partly to mostly cloudy so far today with some spots remaining more cloudy than others. The moderate north winds in combination with the clouds have kept temperatures generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures will be falling tonight, and the light winds in combination with possible minimal cloud cover should drop overnight lows below freezing for a majority of inland locations (some of the far inland locations could have some potential for up to 7 to 9 hours below freezing). There are also some indications (models and their associated soundings) of possible late night through early morning fog or freezing fog development generally north of the Interstate 10 corridor. For now, have placed some fog in the forecast for that area, but the evening crew might need to add the freezing word after examining the latest model runs. With less cloud cover during the day, expect to have afternoon high temperatures warm up into a 50-54 degree range Tuesday afternoon. The next feature we`ll be dealing with will be the approach and passage of the next shortwave now located (and nicely seen on water vapor satellite) over northern Mexico just to the southwest of the El Paso area. By the time of this system`s arrival late tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night, it still looks like our air mass will remain too dry for any rains to be generated. Some models are showing some precip developing with this system, but it currently looks like anything that does develop should evaporate before reaching the ground. Low temperatures overnight should bottom out in the low/mid 30s inland and in the low/mid 40s at the beaches. 42 .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday Night]... Another shortwave trough is expected to push through late Tuesday and early Wednesday. Despite some favorable upper-level forcing such as PVA and the GFS showing a jet streak aloft, the surface forcing just is not there with low PWATs and a very strong cap near the surface. Therefore, no precipitation or noticeable impacts are expected. By Late Thursday and Early Friday, global models show a digging trough stretching across northern CONUS and the lower fringes of this upper-level trough reaching our CWA. A surface front will stretch from The Great Lakes to our region, however at this time, our area will lack strong upper-level support in addition to the remaining strong capping inversion near the surface and low PWATs. Therefore, most precipitation will remain offshore, but winds will become northerly after the frontal passage and strengthen, allowing CAA and our overnight lows to drop a few degrees. By Sunday, another shortwave trough will push through our area. The GFS and Canadian model are being more aggressive showing a sharp digging trough axis across northern CONUS and reaching our CWA. With our CWA located under the right entrance of a jet streak, slightly higher PWATS (0.5-0.6 inches), and no low-level capping inversion, a sfc front develops over our CWA and bringing back some rain chances. The ECMWF is not as aggressive with upper-level dynamics and places a sfc high over much of SE CONUS and keeping any precip well to our west and north. This far out, global models can still change significantly, so will continue to monitor. KBL .MARINE... Current conditions are offshore winds with our Gulf Waters under a Small Craft Advisory and Matagorda Bay in Exercise Caution conditions. Freeport Buoy is still reporting 7ft seas, but should continue to gradually subside. By this afternoon, the SCEC should drop out for Matagorda Bay and an SCA will remain in our offshore waters 20-60 miles out. Winds should continue to subside and SCEC conditions should be over by tomorrow morning for all of our coastal waters. Expect low water advisories to continue during low tide over the next few days to due offshore and NE winds. Winds will switch to the NE by tomorrow morning and remain that way until Wednesday with it switching back to offshore winds due to a weak frontal passage. After the frontal passage, winds will transition to the SW and W until late Thursday night with another frontal passage expected on Thursday night. Offshore winds will resume and strengthen to possible SCA conditions again. KBL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 29 50 33 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 32 52 35 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 37 51 44 58 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until midnight CST tonight for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CST Tuesday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$
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