Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 222340 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 540 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 .AVIATION... Enough drier air has made it west and northwest of I-45 and Highway 59 to allow cigs/vis to lift and even scatter out at some locations. This will probably be short lived and anticipate cigs to fill back in and lower into ifr territory across all TAF sites prior to midnight. Sea fog has also shifted offshore, but latest guidance shows it creeping back toward Galveston Bay around midnight and then filling in across areas south of I-10 overnight. LIFR conditions will be probable at times then. Very limited improvement expected during the late morning hours and perhaps a few hours of MVFR cigs during the afternoon inland. But, warm front begins moving back inland after 20z or so, bring with it the typical -ra/dz/br/fg. So unfavorable flying conditions persist into Sat night. 47 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021/ SHORT TERM [Tonight through Saturday Night]... The front has stalled offshore and is shallow (HGX-THOU radar indicating the very weak CAA occuring below 2800ft) with modification evident offshore per satellite. Sea fog looks to have pooled along and south of the boundary. While over SETX this afternoon drier air mixed in from the southwest and even some of the coastal areas as far as Galveston got a quick look at the sun...but alas that has ended and now the clouds are returning and will aggressive return this evening. Fog should return as well although somewhat patchy to start off with over the eastern/northern/southeastern areas then becoming more widespread by midnight-3 am. Dense fog is possible but to pinpoint an area is challenging - for now would favor the nearshore waters/coastal counties toward morning. Rain chances look slim but some drizzle is possible with trace to very light accumulations. Saturday some drier air aloft is getting recirculated into the area from the northeast and some breaks in the cloud cover look possible over the northeastern areas but may be much more persistent over the south. Temperatures Saturday will be a little cooler (weak CAA ending/clouds) but then the front moves back north out of the waters going into late Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain threat increases with the increased upglide and warm front proximity as a weak s/w embedded in the subtropical jet slides into the area...again on the light side as for accumulations...rain chances only in the 40-50 percent range but these will probably need upping dramatically as the timing gets narrowed down...but again it may be more of a widespread light rain Saturday night. Saturday night/early Sunday morning the fog threat should be back and primarily over the coastal areas and southwestern areas. 45 LONG TERM [Sunday through Friday]... With onshore winds back in force along with a weak upper level dis- turbance moving across, we`ll be expecting warm/humid weather with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms possible. Per the timing/ track of the warm front, the highest POPs should be along to south of this boundary as the day progresses inland. Along/near the bays and coast, sea fog is expected to be an issue once again. A potent upper level short-wave passing over the southern Rockies will then help to drag a strong cold front down the Southern Plains into the state Sun night/Mon. While mostof the previous runs have indicated some timing discrepancies with this next cold front, these current ones seem to be in slightly better agreement- pushing the boundary through SE TX to the coast by Mon afternoon (or thereabouts). Will keep with fairly high POPs with FROPA (given the PWs of around 1.5 inches and weak upper jet dynamics). In the wake of this front, long range guidance appears to be trend- ing a bit drier than previous. Another strong short-wave is progged to move across the Great Plains by Weds and this system should draw a reinforcing shot of cold/dry air down into the region for the re- mainder of the week. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 55 66 60 73 61 / 20 10 30 50 70 Houston (IAH) 59 67 61 74 66 / 20 10 40 30 50 Galveston (GLS) 59 63 60 68 64 / 20 10 30 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
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