Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 022331 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 531 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Winds have become light and variable over the region as high pressure moves overhead. On Sunday morning, winds will become southerly/southwesterly around 10 knots as the high moves off to the east. As for sky conditions, they will remain clear through Sunday morning. This is when a few upper-level clouds will move in over the inland airports, but this will not have any operational impacts as all of the airports will remain VFR throughout the entire forecast period. Winds are expected to become light once again on Sunday evening/night. && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 322 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021/... .DISCUSSION... The theme of the week to come is relatively quiet weather, with the only chances for showers in the middle of the week when a modest cold front moves through. Look for a warming trend to continue into the frontal passage, with high temperatures eventually reaching up to 10 degrees above seasonal averages, and then more typical temperatures in the back half of the week after the front passes. .SHORT TERM [Through Sunday Night]... Surface analysis shows high pressure gradually coming to prevail over the area, though we are looking at light to moderate WNW to NW winds until the high center passes by. Meanwhile, the satellite reveals a completely clear sky. So, really, the next day or two is not a lot more than a matter of radiation calculations for temp forecasts and handling the shift of winds from offshore to onshore(ish) as the high passes by. My recent attempts at beating the computers at this game have not gone super well, so my choice is not to stray much from the model consensus here. For tonight, with a clear sky and light/variable winds, I will gamble at undercutting the consensus a little bit, but not too much. The result is a forecast a little bit warmer than the previous shift. Beyond that, the trends look good at showing a warming trend tomorrow and tomorrow night along with modestly higher dewpoints as winds become partially onshore. .LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]... The continuation of dry/quiet weather is expected Mon/Mon night with the passage of a weak cold front on Mon. No rain chances are progged with this system given the lack of moisture/lift. High pressure that will be building into the region in the wake of the front Mon night/ early Tues is forecast to shift east by Tues afternoon with light on- shore winds set to return at that time. This should allow for warmer temperatures/increased low-level moisture Tues into Wed. All of this appears to be setting the stage for our next cold front and our next best chances for rain. Models have been in decent agreement with the timing of the boundary and its associated upper trough sweeping down (and across) from the Plains on Wed with the front sweeping over the CWA by Wed afternoon/evening. Showers and thunderstorms accompanying these systems may be buoyed by progs of favorable jet dynamics aloft (LFQ) and fueled by the 1.1"-1.3" PWs moving in from the Gulf. While there are hints of a slight negative tilt to the main upper low, all of this should be moving steadily/quickly to the east as this rather progressive weather pattern of late remain in place. Drying/clearing trends will be on tap by Wed night. Otherwise, cool nights/mild days should prevail the rest of the week as high pressure builds down via the Plains. At this time, extended models are having difficulty with the timing of the next shot of rain/cold front but current consensus has it near/around SE TX by next Sun night or Mon. .MARINE... Winds are hovering near SCEC conditions in the offshore zones early this afternoon, but these winds are expected to diminish this evening as high pressure crosses the region. Winds will be variable to begin Sunday, gradually becoming southwesterly. Winds will gradually back to become more onshore over the next couple of days. The next frontal passage expected to move into the waters sometime late Wednesday into early Thursday. Offshore winds will develop in the wake of the front Thursday into Friday. SCEC conditions seem likely in the wake of the front, perhaps even a low end small craft advisory. Unlike recent fronts, gales appear to be quite unlikely. .HYDROLOGY... A quick summary of the river flooding situation in Southeast Texas: On the San Bernard River, we are in moderate flood at Boling, and minor flood at East Bernard and Sweeny. East Bernard is past its crest, while the other two sites are at or near their crest. On the Navasota River, we are watching rises at Normangee, where it is possible that river levels reach flood stage in the first half of next week. A flood warning may be needed if it becomes apparent that flood stage will be reached. Elsewhere, rivers have either fallen below or are not anticipated to reach flood stage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 37 65 39 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 39 65 45 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 50 63 54 67 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs SHORT TERM...Luchs LONG TERM...41 AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Luchs HYDROLOGY...Luchs
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