Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 162326 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 526 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021 .AVIATION... VFR with light winds this evening and overnight. TAF sites will see increasing mid/high clouds tomorrow in association with a weak shortwave trough and accompanying weak cold front. Winds will generally W to NW under 10 knots. VFR tomorrow night and on into early Monday morning with light winds. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021/ SHORT TERM [Through Monday]... Northwesterly winds continue to decrease as an area of high pressure moves in closer to the area. Still seeing a few bouts of wind gusts around 15 knots due to the steep low-level lapse rates and a unidirectional wind flow into the mid-levels. With winds slowing down going into the evening, dew points remaining low, and clear skies prevailing, another cold night is expected for tonight with temperatures dipping down into the mid-to-upper 30s. Dew points will remain on the low side with 20s persisting through Sunday morning. Temperatures will be on the rise going into early next week as CAA comes to an end on Sunday morning. Highs will be in the mid-to-upper 60s on Sunday and the upper 60s/low 70s on Monday. Low temperatures for Sunday night will be a bit warmer due to onshore flow returning as the high pressure begins to move off to the east. Expecting temperatures to be in the low-to-mid 40s for most with upper 30s for our far northern counties. Forecast models are in agreement that a weak shortwave trough will swing through the CWA on early Sunday morning along with a weak cold front, but this will not cause any adverse weather or offer any noteworthy cold air. This is because the trough is positively tilted, instability is very low, PWATs are less than 0.5", plentiful dry air remains in the low-levels, and there will be quite a bit of upper-level convergence. At best we`ll see some mid-to-upper level clouds as it moves through, but only last through late Sunday morning before clear skies return. The area of high pressure moves off to the east on late Sunday night/early Monday morning. This will put us into an onshore southeasterly flow, which is important for the rest of the week as this will steadily increase our moisture and instability. 26 LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]... A shallow cold front is fcst to move into portions of n/ncntl Tx Monday & Tuesday and become a focus for precipitation as llvl moisture levels increase from prevailing onshore winds off the Gulf. Anticipate that the boundary will stall before reaching southeast Texas with upper trof still being situated well to the west over SoCal & Baja. Disturbances embedded in the swly flow aloft along with the proximity of the stalled front may trigger sct precip at times across the NW 1/2 of the CWA Tues-Thurs. Further south closer to the coast, we`ll be on the lookout for periods of sea fog. The upper trof to the west will fill as it ejects newd across the Plains later in the week. The next front penciled in for Thursday night into Friday afternoon, will probably have a better southward push. Sct precip along this boundary will come to an end as it pushes offshore later in the day. 47 MARINE... Although the wind speeds have decreased, the wind directions remains northwesterly which means the seas will continue to decrease going into Monday. The persistent offshore flow will allow for at least one more day of abnormally low tides for the bays. As a result, a Low Water Advisory is in effect for both Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay through this evening. Winds will become light tonight as high pressure moves overhead. A weak cold front will briefly change winds to northwesterly on Sunday morning. High pressure moves off to the east on Sunday night/Monday morning, which will introduce an onshore southeasterly flow. Wind speeds will approach SCA criteria on Monday night/early Tuesday morning. The onshore flow will persist through most of the week and seas will build up to 4-7 feet by Tuesday. A warmer airmass will be moving over the cool nearshore waters, so sea fog will be a possibility Wednesday through Friday morning. 26 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 36 65 38 68 56 / 0 0 0 0 20 Houston (IAH) 37 65 41 67 53 / 0 0 0 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 47 61 53 63 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...Low Water Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. && $$
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