Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000 FXUS64 KHGX 270003 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 603 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Not planning on a lot of changes with the going TAF trends with re- gard to the timing of the cold front tonight/overnight. Short range guidance still indicating a fairly dry/quiet FROPA with CIGS likely lifting quickly in its wake. Otherwise, will be keeping a close eye on possible patchy MVFR CIGS near the coast overnight. 41 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST Tue Jan 26 2021/ SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday Night]... Yesterday`s surface cold front remains stalled well offshore, with some lingering cloudiness still present across the barrier islands and immediate inland areas. That being said, the gradual clearing over the past 24 hours has allowed for more efficient daytime heating this afternoon, while the shift to east-northeasterly winds has limited CAA. Overall, daytime highs have risen above model consensus with Hobby Airport reaching 77 at 3PM and Galveston reaching the 75 earlier today. As an upper trough traverses the Central Plains, the approach of a reinforcing cold front overnight will provide an additional surge of cooler air to SE TX as winds strengthen and shift northward. The boundary should arrive at the Brazos Valley before midnight and will likely clear the coast before sunrise on Wednesday. With limited moisture availability given the influx of drier air yesterday, the frontal passage should be largely a dry one. However, as indicated by recent HRRR solutions, some isolated showers may arise near the coast where near-surface moisture remains higher. This raises the additional possibility of some patchy fog development in these locations prior to the arrival of the front but coverage and intensity should be limited. Tonight`s lows should be fairly similar to last night`s with most locations seeing values in the upper 40s to low 50s. As moderate to strong northerly winds (with gusts rising to up to 25mph) develop in the wake of the front, a further cooldown is expected tomorrow. Daytime highs are unlikely to rise above 70, while overnight lows may approach freezing in the northern zones and will otherwise be in the mid-30s to lower 40s. Cady LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]... High pressure in the Midwest will dominate the Southern Planes bringing clear to mostly clear skies and relatively drier conditions. Thursday will be pleasant with highs climbing to around 60 after lows in the low to mid 40s. The large high will start moving to the northeast on Friday into the Ontario area, giving way to an onshore flow. Warmer and more moist will set back in warming lows on Friday to the mid 40s and warming to the mid to upper 60s. A cold front, Saturday will increase rain chances, but most higher chances remain to the north of I-10 but showers or a thunderstorm can`t be ruled out along the boundary. Intensity is still looking weak with PWATs peaking around 1.3 inches and not much instability along the front. Highs will reach the mid 70s after a morning low in the mid 50s to around 60. Early Sunday Morning, the front will have passed and high pressure returns to the area. Lows will still reach around mid 50s to around 60 with highs around 70. Cooler temperatures will filter in with drier air and clearing skies through mid week as high pressure moves across the area. 35 MARINE... SCA hoisted for the anticipated change post frontal. Northeast winds this evening will relax and seas very slowly diminish. The cold front arrives and winds crank up quickly - timing should bring it to Matagorda Bay around 3 am and off of Galveston between 4 and 5 am. Winds of 15 to 25 knots will be common and wind gusts of 30 knots with even a few of 35 knots in the 6am to noon timeframe. Persistent offshore continues Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening through diminishing to 10-15 knots. Seas will be slow to fall with the persistent offshore flow. Onshore flow resumes Friday and could have a short period of sea fog Saturday before the next cold front scours out the moisture Sunday morning. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 45 63 36 60 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 51 67 41 61 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 56 65 49 56 52 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 10 PM CST Wednesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay... Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...99 Aviation/Marine...99
No comments:
Post a Comment