Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
622 FXUS64 KHGX 020049 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 649 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR...still. NW winds relaxing and should become L/V overnight then very slowly increasing and becoming east and southeast less than 8 knots 15-20z. 45 && .MARINE... Low water advisory in effect until midnight. Incoming tide should raise tide levels from very low levels this afternoon to near normal. && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 239 PM CST Mon Feb 1 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday Night]... Surface high pressure over the central plains will ridge into SE TX tonight and Tuesday. This feature will bring generally clear skies and cool temperatures. With dry air in place and winds decoupling tonight, would expect ideal radiational cooling to take place and MinT values should fall into the 30`s most areas by morning. There will be some patchy cirrus from time to time which if it can get thick enough could mitigate the temperature drop. On Tuesday, the high will still be close enough to influence area weather with generally clear skies and cool early February temperatures MaxT values should be similar to todays values or maybe a degree or so warmer. Tuesday night will start off clear but onshore winds will return and there will be a slow return of low level moisture. Would expect to begin seeing clouds redeveloping after midnight over the SW zones. With the onshore flow, MinT values will moderate significantly and only cool into the upper 30s far NE to the mid/upper 40`s far SW zones. 43 .LONG TERM [Wednesday through Monday]... Return flow from the departing surface ridge will continue to surge warmer and more humid air on Wednesday. 925mb temperatures increase in the afternoon with values in the 10 to 13 C range, mainly west of I-45. These readings should support highs from the upper 60s to low- mid 70s. Thursday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the week. Strengthening onshore flow will induce warm and moisture advection across southeast TX with NAEFS indicating 850 hPa temperatures in the 90th percent of climatology. Given persistent warm southerly flow, have trended towards the 75-90th percentile of guidance for high temperatures (mainly towards BCCONSMOS)to produce afternoon values in the mid 70s to near 80. The next concern will be winds. A strong shortwave trough tracking over the Rockies/central Plains will result in tight pressure gradients; thus, breezy to windy conditions are expected ahead of a progressive surface front. Medium range guidance remains fairly consistent on increasing rain chances along the aforementioned cold front expected to arrive late Thursday night into Friday. In the wake of this front, onshore flow quickly re-develops as a surface low over central TX lifts its associated warm front north into the region by late Friday. Have leaned towards GFS/ECMWF for winds from Friday night into Saturday as NBM is struggling with the onshore flow. A secondary dry front moves in Saturday, bringing even colder conditions as a strong Arctic high builds in over the central Plains/upper Midwest. Highs may only range from the low 50s to low 60s by Sunday. This cold weather will not last much as southerly warmer flow returns by early next week along with increasing rain chances. 05 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 38 65 44 71 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 37 63 45 69 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 45 59 52 65 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. && $$ AVIATION...45 MARINE...41
No comments:
Post a Comment