Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 132333 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 533 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Challenging forecast ahead, but for the moment, things are quiet - even breaking into VFR in the southeastern portion of the area including more than half of the TAF sites. Expect clouds that lifted/scattered this afternoon should quickly become MVFR in the 020-025 range this evening with some light showers/drizzle developing overnight. Cold enough up north that I make a changeover tonight to FZRA/SNPL for CLL and UTS, and even clip CXO briefly with SNPL. For IAH southward, expecting to stay all rain until tomorrow night. Hint at the changeover for the IAH extended period: this may be a few hours early, but would rather err on the side of caution for now. && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 403 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021/... .DISCUSSION... * Bitterly cold air will continue moving into the region into midweek as an Arctic airmass spills into the area. Prolonged periods of below freezing temperatures are expected - even at the beaches. * Two weather systems (one Sunday night-Monday morning and another toward midweek) will produce winter precipitation across many parts of Southeast Texas. * Travel will be impacted by hazardous road conditions. Sporadic power outages will be a possibility where ice builds up on powerlines and/or trees. Pipes (including sprinkler systems) will be subject to bursting if not adequately insulated, and hypothermia may be a possibility for those exposed and not dressed accordingly. * Residents should complete preparations before the coldest air and widespread frozen precipitation begins arriving Sunday evening. Remember the 4 P`s: pipes, people, pets and plants. In addition, be aware of space heater and generator dangers if not properly placed/used. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]... Temperatures so far today have been hovering around or slightly below freezing across our northwest counties, mid to upper 30s central and lower to mid 40s coast. Almost nothing has been showing up on radar, but that will change beginning tonight as the first disturbance moves across the area and produces frozen precipitation north (where lows will be near or slightly below freezing) and rain to the south (where temperatures above freezing are expected). At 9 PM, the Winter Storm Warning begins up north, and the Winter Storm Watch begins down south. For the most part, light accumulations are expected overnight through much of tomorrow morning with this first system, but any accumulations in/near the warning area will lead to hazardous conditions. High resolution models coming in are painting a potentially very dangerous winter weather event over at least the next 48 hours (through Monday), and with a long period of below freezing temperatures, very dangerous conditions look to be setting up for parts of the area Tuesday through Thursday night (see the Long Term section below). The stronger system begins tomorrow afternoon and peaks tomorrow night through early Monday morning. The Winter Storm Watch is upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning at 3 PM Sunday, and this places the entire area under the Warning through Monday afternoon. As temperatures fall from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, expect to see periods of rain mixed with freezing rain/drizzle up north that will eventually transition to snow, and expect to see periods of rain transitioning to rain mixed with freezing rain/drizzle that eventually could transition to snow down south...including the beaches. High resolution models coming in are showing the potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow north (locally higher amounts possible) with lower amounts as you get closer to the coast. Further to the south, freezing rain accumulations may reach a tenth to a quarter inch. If this happens, expect to see sporadic power outages where the buildup occurs on powerlines and/or trees. Pipes (including sprinkler systems) will be subject to bursting if not adequately insulated, and hypothermia may be a possibility for those exposed and not dressed accordingly. Monday`s high temperatures will struggle to get any warmer than the teens north and west and the 20s south and coast. A Hard Freeze Watch and a Wind Chill Watch begin at 6 PM Monday for the entire area, and they will likely need to be upgraded to a Warning. You only have about one day left to prepare for this potentially historic winter event! 42 .LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]... While the first round of winter precipitation comes to an end on Monday afternoon, the other dangerous hazard going into the overnight hours will be the extremely dangerous low temperatures. On Tuesday morning, lows will be near zero in our northern counties, around 10-15 degrees near Houston and in the upper-teens/lower 20s along the coast. None of the winter precipitation will melt, so travel conditions will be extremely hazardous through at least Tuesday afternoon. This arctic air will be very frigid, and those without the proper attire will be at risk of hypothermia if outdoors for an extended period of time. For Tuesday, areas north of I-10 will likely remain below freezing even into the afternoon hours, so any winter precipitation that has previously fallen will remain and so will the hazardous travel conditions. South of I-10, temperatures will make it into the mid-to-upper 30s and lower 40s along the coast. A surface coastal low begins to develop late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. This will bring another round of precipitation to the area throughout the day on Wednesday and into Thursday morning. Model guidance is still iffy on the temperatures as far as the freezing line goes. There is consistency that the initial surge of moisture comes early on Wednesday when our northern counties will still be below freezing. Forecast soundings support a freezing rain/sleet mix initially for this area. Temperatures expected to rise above freezing in the afternoon hours, so a transition over to rain is anticipated during this timeframe. As far as the Wednesday temperatures go, it`ll be close (talking a 1-2 degree difference) for our far northern counties on if they get above freezing. GFS and Euro are in agreement on a transition back to freezing rain going into Wednesday night for our northern counties as temperatures begin to fall, followed by a transition to snow on early Thursday morning as the precipitation finally comes to an end. Overnight temperatures for Wednesday will drop below freezing once again for most of the area (the exception being along the coast and our far southeastern locations). With ground temperatures likely not recovering enough, we could have another period of hazardous travel conditions for Wednesday night/Thursday. This may sound like a broken record, but high temperatures on Thursday are likely to remain below freezing once again for our northern counties. It is a very real possibility that our northern locations may not reach above 32 degrees until Friday. Further to south, temperatures will make it into the upper 30s/low 40s. The somewhat good news is that high pressure will be moving in from the west, so we`ll see clearing skies and an end to the winter precipitation. The mostly clear skies combined with continued CAA with northerly winds flowing over the ice that will still be in place to the north means we`re expecting another hard freeze for Thursday night with temperatures down into the teens up north and in the 20s near the Houston metro area and south. High pressure moves off to the east on Friday and puts us into a southerly flow. Temperatures will FINALLY get out of the 30s as we see high temperatures back into the 40s/50s which seems rather warm in comparison. Southerly flow continues into Saturday where we will likely see temperatures rise into the 60s. How`s that for a temperature swing? 26 .MARINE... Northerly winds of 20-25 knots with gusts near 30 knots continue to persist. SCA will remain in place for all the waters through tomorrow night as these conditions will continue to persist. Heading into Sunday, winds will become northeasterly as a coastal low begins to develop in the western Gulf. Wind speeds will increase to 30-35 knots with gusts over 40 knots in the timeframe of Sunday night/Monday morning. A Gale Watch is in effect for this time period as a result. Additionally, seas will build up to 12-13 feet offshore and 7-8 feet nearshore. As the low pushes off to the east, strong offshore flow returns in its wake and seas will begin to decrease throughout the day on Monday. Another potential hazard for this event will be freezing spray with the prolonged period of freezing temperatures. Wind speeds will start to come down on Tuesday morning as well. Another coastal low will spin up on Wednesday morning and bring another period of SCA conditions as offshore winds of 20-25 knots return. 26 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 28 33 13 14 3 / 40 30 90 70 0 Houston (IAH) 33 37 20 21 10 / 30 20 90 80 0 Galveston (GLS) 41 42 28 29 19 / 30 20 80 80 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Chill Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton. Hard Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for the following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton. Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Northern Liberty...Southern Liberty...Wharton. Winter Storm Watch from 9 PM CST this evening through Sunday afternoon for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Northern Liberty...Southern Liberty...Wharton. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday for the following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Grimes...Houston...
Madison...Montgomery...Polk...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington.
GM...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Sunday night for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...26
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 945 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY... TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>438-141145- /O.CON.KHGX.WS.W.0002.210214T2100Z-210216T0000Z/ /O.CON.KHGX.WS.A.0004.000000T0000Z-210214T2100Z/ /O.CON.KHGX.WC.A.0001.210215T0000Z-210216T1800Z/ Northern Liberty-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend- Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston- Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda- Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands- Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula- Including the cities of Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton, Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony, Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton, League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios, Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque, Surfside Beach, and Galveston 945 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...A strong storm system will move into the area bringing freezing rain, sleet and snow. Snowfall accumulations of 1/2 to 2 inches are expected north and west of the Highway 59 and Interstate 69 corridor tapering down to possibly a dusting near the immediate coast. Localized higher amounts are possible. This will be on top of a layer of ice between 1/10 to 1/4 inch thick. Additionally, it will become extremely cold, with those away from the coast seeing long stretches of next week spent below freezing. Minimum wind chills may fall below zero well inland as well. * WHERE...Parts of Southeast Texas roughly south of I-10. * WHEN...Conditions deteriorating late tonight and Sunday. Poor weather continues through 6 PM Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult...if not impossible late Sunday into Monday. The extremely low wind chills as low as 15 below zero will become life threatening to people and animals outside without adequate warmth or shelter! The strong winds could also result in blowing and drifting of snow yielding near white out conditions with visibility less than 1 mile at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A major winter storm is forecast to occur. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Prepare for power outages and have non-perishable food and water on hand. Do not travel unless it is an emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra blanket, flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case you become stranded. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org. A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow... sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. A Wind Chill Watch means the there is the potential for a combination of very cold air and strong winds to create dangerously low wind chill values. Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. && $$
Hard Freeze Watch
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 946 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313- 335>338-436-438-141200- /O.CON.KHGX.HZ.A.0001.210215T0000Z-210216T1800Z/ Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos- Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin- Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson- Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston- Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda- Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands- Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula- Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton, Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston, Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham, Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton, Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony, Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton, League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios, Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque, and Galveston 946 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 ...HARD FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 3 degrees above zero are possible. * WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing. && $$Wind Chill Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 945 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY... TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>438-141145- /O.CON.KHGX.WS.W.0002.210214T2100Z-210216T0000Z/ /O.CON.KHGX.WS.A.0004.000000T0000Z-210214T2100Z/ /O.CON.KHGX.WC.A.0001.210215T0000Z-210216T1800Z/ Northern Liberty-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend- Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston- Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda- Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands- Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula- Including the cities of Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton, Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony, Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton, League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios, Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque, Surfside Beach, and Galveston 945 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...A strong storm system will move into the area bringing freezing rain, sleet and snow. Snowfall accumulations of 1/2 to 2 inches are expected north and west of the Highway 59 and Interstate 69 corridor tapering down to possibly a dusting near the immediate coast. Localized higher amounts are possible. This will be on top of a layer of ice between 1/10 to 1/4 inch thick. Additionally, it will become extremely cold, with those away from the coast seeing long stretches of next week spent below freezing. Minimum wind chills may fall below zero well inland as well. * WHERE...Parts of Southeast Texas roughly south of I-10. * WHEN...Conditions deteriorating late tonight and Sunday. Poor weather continues through 6 PM Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult...if not impossible late Sunday into Monday. The extremely low wind chills as low as 15 below zero will become life threatening to people and animals outside without adequate warmth or shelter! The strong winds could also result in blowing and drifting of snow yielding near white out conditions with visibility less than 1 mile at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A major winter storm is forecast to occur. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Prepare for power outages and have non-perishable food and water on hand. Do not travel unless it is an emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra blanket, flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case you become stranded. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org. A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow... sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. A Wind Chill Watch means the there is the potential for a combination of very cold air and strong winds to create dangerously low wind chill values. Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. && $$Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 945 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY... TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>438-141145- /O.CON.KHGX.WS.W.0002.210214T2100Z-210216T0000Z/ /O.CON.KHGX.WS.A.0004.000000T0000Z-210214T2100Z/ /O.CON.KHGX.WC.A.0001.210215T0000Z-210216T1800Z/ Northern Liberty-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend- Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston- Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda- Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands- Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula- Including the cities of Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton, Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony, Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton, League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios, Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque, Surfside Beach, and Galveston 945 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...A strong storm system will move into the area bringing freezing rain, sleet and snow. Snowfall accumulations of 1/2 to 2 inches are expected north and west of the Highway 59 and Interstate 69 corridor tapering down to possibly a dusting near the immediate coast. Localized higher amounts are possible. This will be on top of a layer of ice between 1/10 to 1/4 inch thick. Additionally, it will become extremely cold, with those away from the coast seeing long stretches of next week spent below freezing. Minimum wind chills may fall below zero well inland as well. * WHERE...Parts of Southeast Texas roughly south of I-10. * WHEN...Conditions deteriorating late tonight and Sunday. Poor weather continues through 6 PM Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult...if not impossible late Sunday into Monday. The extremely low wind chills as low as 15 below zero will become life threatening to people and animals outside without adequate warmth or shelter! The strong winds could also result in blowing and drifting of snow yielding near white out conditions with visibility less than 1 mile at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A major winter storm is forecast to occur. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Prepare for power outages and have non-perishable food and water on hand. Do not travel unless it is an emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra blanket, flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case you become stranded. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org. A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow... sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. A Wind Chill Watch means the there is the potential for a combination of very cold air and strong winds to create dangerously low wind chill values. Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. && $$Thoughts: A winter storm in Houston? This is CRAZY!!!!I never thought that I would see the day wherethe low would get to 5 degrees or below. I have onlyheard rumors of such extremely low temperatureshappening in the Housotn, TX area. Definitely going tobe breaking some daily if not hisotoric records!!!!Wow....
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