Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 222320 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 520 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 .AVIATION... VFR and SKC for the 23/00Z TAFs. Most winds will become light and variable for the evening and overnight hours then become S and increase to 7-12 kts in the mid to late morning through afternoon hours tomorrow. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021/ SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday Night]... Very benign and warm weather is ahead of us for the next few days as a high pressure settles in over our region. Daytime highs will be in the 70s for most areas and upper 60s for our northern counties. Clear skies and calm winds will allow temperatures to drop to the 40s tonight. Patchy fog is possible in our southwestern counties early Tuesday morning as the high pressure begins to slide to our northeast allowing southeast winds to resume and low-level moisture primes the area for fog potential. For Tuesday, daytime highs should reach the lower-to-mid 70s across SE TX and overnight lows will cool to the lower 50s. KBL LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]... Southeasterly flow off the Gulf will bring low level moisture & cloudiness back into the region during the midweek time period (and perhaps a long stretch of sea fog near the coast thru the weekend). In the upper levels a mostly zonal flow will persist for much of the work week with a flat ridge positioned across the Gulf. A shallow cold front will sag into the region Wednesday night & Thursday, but expect it to stall across southern parts of the area considering lack of upper support for a continued southward push. Upglide over the shallow boundary will produce periods of sct light precip along and to the north of the front...with areas generally north of I-10 being in the more favorable locations for seeing precip. Thursday night into Friday morning a weak shortwave will move eastward across the Southern Plains aiding in overall lift and precip chances across that same general region. An upper trough will dig southward down the west coast this weekend and we`ll transition to more of a southwesterly flow aloft. Upper disturbances riding along in the flow in combination with a moist airmass already in place will maintain iso/sct precip chances into the weekend. Trajectory of these impulses should again favor northern parts of the CWA moreso than s/se parts. Overall, look for fairly warm & cloudy conditions to persist until the next front make its way closer to the region March 2-3. 47 MARINE... As high pressure moves off to the east, southeast winds should resume tonight and Tuesday. Warmer air moving over the cold nearshore waters will present a potentially prolonged threat of sea fog from the middle of this week into early next week. A weak cold front is forecast to approach the coast Thursday into early Friday but stall just inland. Assuming that holds, onshore winds should persist through the weekend with seas between 2-5 feet. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 40 72 51 73 53 / 0 0 0 10 20 Houston (IAH) 42 72 51 72 58 / 0 0 0 30 20 Galveston (GLS) 51 68 55 67 59 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
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