Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 280008 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 608 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... LIFR conditions persist through the night along the coastal flying areas with MVFR elsewhere. Fog will effect most of the area as a warm front continues to push north of the region and sea fog persists along the coastal areas. This pattern looks to persist into the week. 35 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 439 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Afternoon]... Warm and humid this afternoon with southerly flow and stronger band of winds over the west in the entrance corridor of the LLJ. Low clouds near the coast will be spreading north quickly this evening. Fog over the coastal waters will continue to advect inland and already getting close to needing a dense fog advisory for Galveston Island and will let the evening shift issue as needed which it should be. Overnight fog expands well inland and even areas from Conroe southward has a chance of dense fog. Very warm overnight but not getting into record territory. Sunday dawns cloudy and foggy then will be watching for development near the cold front that will be sagging south. Corridor out ahead of the front will destabilize in the afternoon and for areas generally north of a line from Brenham to Livingston will have a least a slight chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms and the later in the afternoon the greater the chance. Small threat for some training of storms though probably north of the area. 45 .LONG TERM [Tomorrow/Sunday Night through Friday]... Rain chances will be on the increase tomorrow night with the ar- rival of the next cold front. This boundary is expected to move into a fairly warm/moist air mass already in place across SE TX during the evening/overnight hours tomorrow. While the best jet dynamics are progged to be north of our FA, there may be enough instability for isolated elevated thunderstorms along with some locally heavy rainfall as this line moves slowly south. Hard to say what locations are at most risk at this time, but did trend with the higher POPs over our northern counties for this time. As we head into Mon, rain chances should remain elevated as the front lingers over the region...along with PWs near 1.5 to 1.8" just ahead of it. However...we`ll have to keep an eye on things Mon night/Tue morning with the development of a coastal surface low around the middle TX coast. Models seem to be in decent ag- reement with the development of this feature, but there`s still some differences with speed and how far from the coast it could track (GFS faster/further away than ECMWF and Canadian). As the surface low and upper low/trof moves out to the ENE through Tue afternoon, the associated cold front should finally move off in to the Gulf. Cooler/drier/quiet weather expected for Weds...and likely most of Thurs (even with the return of SE winds). Exten- ded guidance indicating another strong upper low developing and heading this way late Thurs/Fri. Temps next week should be near seasonal norms. 41 .MARINE... While there was a brief break earlier today, sea fog seems to be moving back into Galveston Bay at this time. Have already issued the Marine Dense Fog Advisory for GLS (and its nearshore waters) for the rest of this afternoon...expanding the Advisory for the rest of the upper TX coast tonight on through noon tomorrow. The tightening gradient in response to lowering surface pressures to our west could elevate winds/seas to SCEC criteria overnight. As the next cold front approaches tomorrow, winds will begin to de- crease. A coastal trof is expected to develop late Mon/early Tue near the middle TX coast, and is forecast to track NE into SW LA by Tue afternoon. This will allow the cold front to finally push through SE TX as moderate/strong offshore winds develop over the marine waters in its wake. SCEC/brief SCA flags may be needed at this time. High pressure will settle over the state on Weds with onshore winds returning late Weds night/Thur. Another cold front will move across the coastal waters on Fri with an offshore flow progged for next weekend. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 78 55 58 45 / 10 40 70 80 60 Houston (IAH) 68 78 65 69 51 / 10 20 50 70 60 Galveston (GLS) 61 69 62 66 54 / 10 10 20 60 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay. Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay. && $$
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