Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 192326 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 526 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021 .AVIATION... Other than some patchy ground fog that might develop overnight and dissipate around mid-morning tomorrow (mainly CXO area northward), VFR conditions can be expected with light winds this evening and overnight becoming SE to S (generally around 5 to 10 knots) late tomorrow morning through tomorrow afternoon. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST Fri Feb 19 2021/ SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday Night) Although still chilly, conditions have begun to moderate with the help of abundant sunshine this afternoon. One more night of freezing temperatures is expected as high pressure settles over SE TX. Will maintain the Hard Freeze Warning for the N-NW zones but models have trended a bit warmer for tonight. The rest of SE Texas will endure a short period of freezing temperatures tonight. Not real confident with regard to some patchy ground fog that could develop but the ECMWF, NAM soundings and SREF data support some freezing fog toward Saturday morning. The T/Td gap narrows considerably tonight and felt it was best to at least mention some potential for freezing fog over the northern half of the CWA in the weather grids. The surface high will shift east of the region on Saturday with an onshore flow developing. This will lead to warmer temperatures and a slight increase in moisture. Should start to see an increase in clouds by afternoon as the moisture deepens. MaxT values will warm into the upper 50`s central and south and we have not been that warm since February 10th. The northern zones will probably remain in the 40`s. Warm air advection will persist into Saturday night and low temperatures will probably occur in the evening and either hold steady or slowly rise as onshore winds continue to draw low level moisture into the area. The WAA pattern will allow for patchy fog and perhaps some drizzle late Saturday night. 43 LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]... Some long-awaited warmth finally arrives on Sunday, when the return of onshore flow should continue to promote WAA and push highs into the 60s across the majority of SE TX. As a deepening surface low approaches the great plains region, a cold front extending from this feature will push through the central CONUS during the day on Sunday and approach SE TX on Sunday night. With the boundary pushing offshore by Monday, along with some isolated showers along and ahead of it, another cooldown is expected. Fortunately, this will not be close in magnitude to what we`ve experienced this week. That being said, northerly winds behind the departing boundary will allow for enhanced CAA and thus lows in the upper 30s to low 40s are on tap for Sunday night and into Monday morning. High pressure settles into the South Central CONUS following the departure of the surface cold front, though its presence will be short lived as its center advances fairly quickly into the central Gulf by Monday. With onshore flow redeveloping at this time, a warm- up into mid week will finally give us our first taste of seasonable weather in quite some time. High temperatures will push into the mid/upper 60s at most locations on Tuesday and the 70s across much of the area Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness associated with onshore Gulf moisture transport will inhibit nocturnal cooling by mid-week, with lows on Wednesday and Thursday remaining in the upper 40s/low 50s. Our next shot at widespread measurable rainfall (and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms) looks to arrive on Thursday as our next surface cold front pushes towards SE TX. Global models still not fully on board in depicting this event with EC showing a slower fropa than most recent GFS & Canadian solutions, though each solution indicates more robust precip coverage/QPF with this next system. Cady MARINE... With winds and seas diminishing this afternoon, cautions and advisories have been allowed to expire as the surface pressure gradient continues to loosen. Furthermore, we`ve allowed the Low Water Advisory for Galveston Bay to expire with the expected improvement in wind conditions and upon today`s high tide. Conditions remain calm through the weekend before an approaching cold front in the overnight hours of Sunday will leave another round of moderate offshore winds and building seas in its wake. Despite this, the boundary is expected to be weaker than that experienced this week and as a result conditions are unlikely to exceed caution thresholds. Onshore winds will quickly redevelop by late Monday as high pressure behind the departing front shifts quickly towards the Central Gulf. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 22 48 41 59 35 / 0 0 0 10 10 Houston (IAH) 28 54 46 65 42 / 0 0 0 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 41 55 52 64 48 / 0 0 0 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday for the following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson... Colorado...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Montgomery...Polk... San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington. GM...NONE. && $$
Thoughts: The last of the winter weather has finally departed Houston, TX
with the last of the hard freeze warnings expiring this morning and most
of the ice/snow melthing. There is still some ice/snow on the ground!
Reminds me of when I use to visit my relatives in the northeast and
there would be ice/snow on the ground from a snow storm, or recent
snow a couple of days, or a week ago. When I was a kid. Kind of
cool I think anyway.
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