Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
308 FXUS64 KHGX 142344 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 544 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Major winter storm beginning to unfold, with mix of rain and wintry precip already occurring as far south as CXO. Houston terminals should join that crew this evening, and spread even to GLS overnight. Have gradual transition to FZRA, mixing to SNPL, and finally SHSN by early tomorrow morning before precip comes to an end late tomorrow morning or early afternoon. Low MVFR CIGs at the very best through all of this, but do hint at the back end some sign of improvement, particularly in the IAH extended tomorrow evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 259 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]... Major winter weather event (a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow) will continue to unfold during the remaining afternoon hours, on through this evening and overnight, and then come to an end from west to east during the morning hours on Monday as the storm system moves into and across the state. Look for precipitation coverage on radar to continue to increase this afternoon and peak during the overnight and early morning hours. Locations that are already at or below freezing (mainly northern and western areas) can expect to see mainly sleet and snow while locations that are near or slightly above freezing (mainly southern and eastern areas) can expect rain and freezing rain to more gradually transition to sleet and snow as temperatures work their way downward. Models generally support locations up north (CLL to Crockett areas) to receive the higher snowfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts, locations around and to the north of the I-10 to I-59/69 corridor to receive 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts, and near the coast light accumulations. Areas that remain near or above freezing the longest have the potential to receive the highest and most dangerous ice accumulation potentials of 1/10 to 1/4 inch (again, locally higher amounts possible), and this looks like it might set up near/around the Houston area and especially for locations off to their east and southeast. As usual, winter precipitation forecast is quite challenging for Southeast Texas, and would not be at all surprised if there are slight shifts in the exact higher amount locations. With the entire area under a Winter Storm Warning, a Hard Freeze Warning and a Wind Chill Warning, everyone should rush to completion all preparations for this major winter weather event. After the precip event comes to an end from west to east on Monday morning and afternoon highs struggle to remain in the upper teens to mid 20s (maybe near 30 at the coast), bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills will become our next concern as we head on into Monday night. Please stay safe out there, remain home and do not travel! 42 .LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Sunday]... Round one of the winter precipitation will have come to an end by Monday night. Monday night/Tuesday morning will feature extremely dangerous arctic temperatures. Low temperatures will be in the single digits for our northern and western counties, 10-12 degrees around the Houston metro area, and in the teens further to the south and along the coast. Wind chill values will be well below zero out to the north and west and in the single digits elsewhere. Please take these hazards seriously. The ice and snow will not melt and hazardous travel conditions will remain in place. Travel is HIGHLY discouraged through at least Tuesday. Minimize your time outdoors and wear proper attire if you go outside. You will be at risk of hypothermia if outdoors for an extended period of time. Afternoon temperatures on Tuesday are not expected to get above freezing for most locations north of I-10, so the ice and snow will remain in place on the roads. It`s not until Wednesday where a brief period of above-freezing temperatures come into the area as another coastal low develops and initially pushes in some slightly warmer air. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 30s/40s for inland areas and in the 50s along the coast. Model consensus is not entirely there as far as who gets freezing rain and who gets liquid rain initially on Wednesday morning along with the extent of the moisture. Our northern counties have the highest chance of seeing freezing rain in the morning hours before a transition over to rain as temperatures warm above freezing. Favorable jet mechanics will be in place with divergence aloft, but differences remain in models on how quickly the moisture moves out of the area. Current thinking is that moisture sticks around into Wednesday night/Thursday morning, so as temperatures drop below freezing we will see a transition over to winter precipitation at the tail end on Thursday morning for areas north of I-10. Uncertainty remains on if the winter precipitation will be freezing rain, sleet, or snow, but leaning more towards another freezing rain event. High pressure moves into the area on Thursday and we`ll see clearing skies with temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Below freezing temperatures likely to remain in our far northern counties due to the CAA over the frozen ground. Thursday night/Friday morning will feature another hard freeze with temperatures dropping into the teens up north and into the 20s further to the south due to radiational cooling underneath the mostly clear skies. We won`t be trapped in this cold weather pattern all week though...warmer temperatures are on the horizon! High pressure shifts to the east on Friday afternoon and reintroduces onshore flow to the area. Resultingly, temperatures will rise into the 40s and 50s across the area on Friday. If that`s not warm enough for you, temperatures will be back into the 60s by next weekend as onshore flow persists. 26 .MARINE... Offshore northeasterly winds of 15-20 knots continue to prevail. Winds will increase going into the nighttime hours eventually reaching Gale force tonight through Monday. This is the result of a coastal low developing in the western Gulf. As it passes through the area, periods of winter precipitation are anticipated. Additionally, seas will build up to 10-12 feet offshore and 6-7 feet nearshore with the strong northeasterly winds. As the low transitions to the east, strong offshore flow returns in its wake and seas will gradually decrease on Monday. Low water conditions will be possible during low tide periods. Another potential hazard for this event will be freezing spray with the prolonged period of freezing temperatures through Tuesday before coastal temperatures begin to rebound. Another coastal low will develop on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and bring another period of strong offshore winds. 26 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 11 17 3 27 23 / 90 20 0 0 60 Houston (IAH) 17 22 10 32 30 / 90 60 0 0 40 Galveston (GLS) 29 30 19 40 40 / 90 70 0 0 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Hard Freeze Warning until noon CST Tuesday for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Monday for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton. Wind Chill Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Tuesday for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Monday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...26
Hard Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 911 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313- 335>338-436>438-151115- /O.CON.KHGX.HZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210216T1800Z/ Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos- Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin- Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson- Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston- Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda- Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands- Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula- Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton, Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston, Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham, Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton, Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony, Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton, League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios, Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque, Surfside Beach, and Galveston 911 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as the single digits to teens are expected across the region. * WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas. * WHEN...Through at least noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures have already fallen below 24 degrees from a line roughly from Eagle Lake to Hempstead to Huntsville to Ratcliff. Cold air will continue to surge coastward through the night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing. && $$Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 902 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR RECORD BREAKING AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313- 335>338-436>438-151115- /O.CON.KHGX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210216T0000Z/ /O.CON.KHGX.WC.W.0001.210215T0600Z-210216T1800Z/ Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos- Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin- Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson- Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston- Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda- Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands- Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula- Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton, Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston, Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham, Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton, Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony, Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton, League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios, Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque, Surfside Beach, and Galveston 902 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...A strong storm system will bring periods of freezing rain, sleet and snow. Snowfall accumulations of 2 to 6 inches are expected north of Highway 105 tapering down to 1/2 to 2 inches down to the Highway 59 and Interstate 10 corridor. Locally higher amounts are possible. This will be on top of a layer of ice between 1/10 to 1/4 inch thick. Additionally, it will become extremely cold with long stretches of the week spent below freezing. Minimum wind chills will fall below zero. * WHERE...Portions of Southeast Texas. * WHEN...Though Monday Morning. * IMPACTS...Travel will continue to be very difficult...if not impossible...through Monday morning. Many roads have been reported as ice covered and closed this evening. The extremely low wind chills as low as 15 below zero will become life threatening to people and animals outside without adequate warmth or shelter! The strong winds could also result in blowing and drifting of snow creating near white out conditions with visibility less than 1 mile at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A major winter storm is forecast to occur. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Prepare for power outages and have non-perishable food and water on hand. Do not travel unless it is an emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra blanket, flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case you become stranded. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org. A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow... sleet...and ice are expected or occurring. Strong winds are also possible. This will make travel very hazardous or impossible. A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and strong winds will create dangerously low wind chill values. This will result in frost bite and lead to hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken. && $$Wind Chill Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 902 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR RECORD BREAKING AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313- 335>338-436>438-151115- /O.CON.KHGX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210216T0000Z/ /O.CON.KHGX.WC.W.0001.210215T0600Z-210216T1800Z/ Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos- Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin- Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson- Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston- Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda- Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands- Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula- Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton, Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston, Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham, Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton, Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony, Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton, League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios, Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque, Surfside Beach, and Galveston 902 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...A strong storm system will bring periods of freezing rain, sleet and snow. Snowfall accumulations of 2 to 6 inches are expected north of Highway 105 tapering down to 1/2 to 2 inches down to the Highway 59 and Interstate 10 corridor. Locally higher amounts are possible. This will be on top of a layer of ice between 1/10 to 1/4 inch thick. Additionally, it will become extremely cold with long stretches of the week spent below freezing. Minimum wind chills will fall below zero. * WHERE...Portions of Southeast Texas. * WHEN...Though Monday Morning. * IMPACTS...Travel will continue to be very difficult...if not impossible...through Monday morning. Many roads have been reported as ice covered and closed this evening. The extremely low wind chills as low as 15 below zero will become life threatening to people and animals outside without adequate warmth or shelter! The strong winds could also result in blowing and drifting of snow creating near white out conditions with visibility less than 1 mile at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A major winter storm is forecast to occur. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Prepare for power outages and have non-perishable food and water on hand. Do not travel unless it is an emergency. If you must travel, keep an extra blanket, flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case you become stranded. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org. A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow... sleet...and ice are expected or occurring. Strong winds are also possible. This will make travel very hazardous or impossible. A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and strong winds will create dangerously low wind chill values. This will result in frost bite and lead to hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken. && $$Thoughts: Freezing rain started to fall around 3 pm and the treesand surfaces started to ice over around 4 pm. Sleet and freezing rainstarted to fall around 6 pm leaving thick blankets on the surfaces.There may have been a few snowflakes sometime during the early,or late night. Where I was in Copperfield, Houston, TX.
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